MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Four of his last 10 starts saw Woo give up four or more earned runs, though in this span he still had a stellar 3.45 ERA, 4.57 FIP and 3.64 xFIP. Last Wednesday, the Athletics got to him for a quartet of longballs, though keep in mind that was in West Sacramento, where the ball has been jumping off the bats all summer. The main calling card for the former Cal Poly Mustang has been efficiency, and he now leads the league with 14.30 pitches per inning, topping all qualified starters. Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Littell, Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez round out the top 5.
The active roster for the White Sox has a 90 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes various variables such as park factor, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100), meaning it is creating runs 10% less efficiently against right-handed pitching. Chicago ranks third in runs (5.46) over the last 30 days, but that is just luck since the team has not added any bats and the Pale Hose have scored the fourth-fewest runs (3.82) this season.
Looking at the projected Chicago lineup, the only worrisome hitters are veterans Mike Tauchman, Andrew Benintendi and enigmatic Luis Robert Jr. Then there are youngsters Colson Montgomery, Lenyn Sosa, Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero, though that quartet is uneven and very, very inexperienced. The former two are likely to be adequate lineup regulars, though nothing special, while Teel and Quero have the best chance of being above average, but they are just starting out on their respective adventures.
The 26-year-old ranks third in the league with his 2.23 ERA and 175 strikeouts, while his 14 quality starts are the third most. Though his 30.8% strikeout rate is below his 35.1% in 2024, it is important to remember that while the White Sox kept him on a regular schedule, they also had him capped at no more than four innings from July through the end of the season to preserve his trade value.
Kansas City has actually had a much higher strikeout rate this year than in recent seasons, which, of course, makes sense considering the roster turnover. The Royals added Mike Yastrzemski and Randal Grichuk at the trade deadline to upgrade both the defense and create a lefty-righty platoon. Tonight it will be Grichuk, who has had solid production against southpaws, albeit with an above-league-average strikeout rate.
The collective projected lineup has a 26.7% strikeout rate and a middling .144 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Even though Crochet spent time in the American League Central Division, the active Royals roster has only 34 at-bats against him, with one double, 13 strikeouts and a .176/.222/.206 triple-slash line.
There is a Coors Field Extravaganza tonight with Toronto getting to face RHP Anthony Molina, who has been stretched out in the minors, recording 97 and 98 pitches in his last two starts. The Blue Jays feathered their nest with 15 runs last night, so hopefully they saved a few for tonight.
On the other side, Colorado is going against RHP Jose Berrios, who is a solid pitcher, though since the start of the 2022 season, he has allowed the most home runs in the league with 104. To be fair, Patrick Corbin (100) has 65.1 fewer innings and Jameson Taillon (96) 93 fewer, but it is still a fact that the ball goes out of the park when he is pitching. To his credit, the 31-year-old has a 4.07 ERA, 4.42 FIP and 4.19 xFIP, so he is far from a gas can, but things can be spicy at altitude.
In order to comfortably recommend two of the most expensive hurlers, there are some discounted bats that can help facilitate roster construction while also having Coors Field representation.
On DraftKings, the back of the Mets order can be had for a song with the team hosting LHP Logan Allen at Citi Field. In Atlanta, Milwaukee is going against LHP Joey Wentz, and only Christian Yelich and William Contreras carry salary cap hits over $3,500. The bottom of the Arizona lineup card has five hitters with $3,000 salaries or lower against struggling RHP Yu Darvish, plus there are other discount dandies such as Dominic Canzone ($2,800) against RHP Davis Martin, Jake Cronenworth ($3,500) facing RHP Ryne Nelson, leadoff man Josh Smith ($3,500) against RHP Will Warren and switch-hitter Willi Castro now suiting up for the Chicago Cubs against RHP Zack Littell.
Yahoo has likely leadoff hitter Brandon Lockridge ($7) and catcher Danny Jansen ($10) against LHP Joey Wentz as one-offs, though it is more about getting away from Toronto, which somehow has only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($19) above $13 tonight.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Since the start of last year, Mikolas has a 7.1% swinging strikeout rate and a 9.6% barrel rate, which has surged to 12.0% when isolating only this season. Max Muncy has returned after missing just over a month with a bone bruise in his knee. This is good timing as Tommy Edman (ankle) is on the injured reserve for the second time this season with the same malady. Muncy had a five-game rehabilitation stint at Triple-A, so he should be back up to speed quickly.
Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and catcher Will Smith are the trio to target, with Mookie Betts getting a bit of a salary break due to his struggles at the plate. On the late slate, outfielders Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages and Michael Conforto are an interesting secondary stack that should not get too much attention from the field.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Seattle Mariners
Game-time temperatures should be around 70 degrees, which is standard for August in the Pacific Northwest and above the season average. The M’s also added Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the trade deadline, giving the team a formidable lineup with no easy outs and ample power potential, even in T-Mobile Park.
Martin has a weak 16.7% strikeout rate this season while suffering a .176 ISO across 378 batters faced. He does his best to induce ground balls with close to a 50% rate; however, it is also a fine line with so many balls in play and a subpar defense backing him up. The batting order is so deep that usual leadoff hitter J.P. Crawford is now towards the back of the order and well-rounded Randy Arozarena is at the top, getting pushed up with Naylor and Suarez manning the middle of the order.
Cal Raleigh continues to be sublime, and the switch-hitter has a .312 ISO in 337 plate appearances swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Julio Rodriguez just became the first player in baseball history to have four 20/20 seasons to start off a career, and switch-hitter Jorge Polanco does his best work as a lefty. Canzone is a discounted power option, so the team sets up nicely to provide duos and trios, along with ample differentiation on the featured slate.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Yu Darvish under 4.5 hits tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Tonight he projects for 4.78 hits allowed, which is still below the five needed for this wager to fail, though with eight, five, five and three base knocks in his first four games this season, we can see that this wager is likely to go down to the wire. That is why getting the best number is key, since baseball wagering is such a season long grind, looking for all the little edges and getting them to add up over the course of countless micro bets.
