MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Miami Just Isn’t Fair (May 7)

Tuesday has an enticing eight-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Bailey Ober as key arms, with Atlanta and, of course, the Coors Field Extravaganza participants as the teams to stack.

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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 7

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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Miami Marlins — 3.7 implied runs

First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $51

The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto just behind RHP Luis Gil in the top-scoring pitcher probability, though Yamamoto actually is a tick higher that Gil on DraftKings and Yahoo when considering the top-2 probability. Gil ultimately wins out in the popularity rankings on FanDuel and Yahoo with his discounted salary, though on DraftKings there is competition from RHP Bailey Ober.

In his seven starts, Yamamoto had ceded no runs four times, including his last two appearances. Of his 11 earned runs, five were allowed back in the Seoul Series, where he made his MLB debut five weeks ago. That means, in his six starts since then, he has allowed only half a dozen runs, with three recorded by both the Mets and Padres when they visited Los Angeles in mid-April.

Yamamoto has 42 strikeouts against a mere eight walks in his 34 innings this season, and tonight he is facing the Miami Marlins, who just traded away their best hitter and two-time batting champion, Luis Arraez. Enjoy!

Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Bailey Ober vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.2 implied runs

First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,600 | FanDuel $8,500 | Yahoo $46

Seattle is 14-5 over the last 19 games, though that has more to do with the Mariners starting rotation than the offense. During this stretch, the M’s have plated 4.1 runners per game, which is right around league average. The team has scored the fourth-fewest runs in the league this season while allowing the fewest runs to the opposition. That has made its offense seem better than reality.

To their credit, the Mariners do have a balanced lineup with few easy outs, but only Julio Rodriguez, catcher Cal Raleigh and former Twin Jorge Polanco are truly dangerous. Seattle does have extra-base hit upside, though not so much when it comes to true home run power. The projected lineup offers up a 27.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last year. The M’s lead the league with a 29.1% strikeout rate against righties and add a marginal 95 wRC+ and an anemic .138 ISO.

Ober is an above-average pitcher with solid strikeout potential, and his low 5.1% walk rate across his last 727 batters faced helps limit the damage when he gives up power. The salary on DraftKings makes him a desirable SP2, while on Yahoo the appeal is the best leverage among all starting pitchers. On FanDuel he is essentially a neutral option in the tools.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Kutter Crawford — 5.0 implied runs

First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET

The Rockies are in Coors Field for the next six days, so Colorado will be casting a long shadow over the various slates where the game is available. Thursday is an afternoon game and Sunday is a late-afternoon affair, so that means four of the next six featured slates will involve a Coors Field Extravaganza.

Since the San Francisco Giants and the Rockies are two of the top 3 projected stacks, Atlanta and even the Los Angeles Dodgers are getting some cover today, with the Braves actually sporting positive leverage. RHP Kutter Crawford started to show signs of a breakthrough last season, and the now-28-year-old is in the midst of quite a heater. Through seven starts he has a 1.56 ERA, 107 WHP and a strikeout per inning. While he has been considerably lucky, he does have strong advanced metrics with a 2.92 xERA and 3.89 xFIP.

However, the toughest offenses that Crawford has stared down this season would be the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs. Neither team holds a candle to the depth, consistency and top-to-bottom talent of the Atlanta lineup. Things are going to be interesting on DraftKings, where the salary algorithm did a decent job with the Rockies and Giants while also putting an even higher premium on the Braves and Dodgers. Yahoo followed suit, though to a lesser extent, while on the blue site, FanDuel is FanDueling with BOGO (buy-one, get-one) salaries.

The top 5 in the order are the key targets, with Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna being the preferred order of preference. Michael Harris II could get a promotion up the order if any of the regulars get a day off; otherwise he is a fine play towards the latter half of the lineup.

Main Slate Secondary Target: Chicago Cubs vs. RHP Randy Vasquez — 4.4 implied runs

First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET

The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Cubs against RHP Randy Vasquez, with the potential production consolidated in a few key hitters. This makes Chicago an excellent complementary stack with the likes of Atlanta, Los Angeles and, of course, the Coors Field Extravaganza.

Vasquez toiled in the Yankees farm system for several seasons before being sent to San Diego as part of the Juan Soto deal. The best asset for Vasquez is that he mostly avoids home runs, but he has below-average strikeouts and an above-average walk rate that could easily lead to big innings. That is the hope when picking on him with the tightly packed core of Christopher Morel, Michael Busch and Ian Happ. If this trio can do some damage one of the two times they are likely to face Vasquez tonight, they could definitely leave their supporters smiling.

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Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities

Tonight RHP Jose Butto looks like a pitcher to target for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop, which is currently available on DraftKings at +100. Butto is projected for just over four strikeouts today, which is under tonight’s milestone.

OddsShopper shows this bet has -112 “true odds,” and the +100 provides a festive 5.7% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with odds. This can be seen with Hard Rock and Fliff all the way down at -135, which is ridiculous by comparison.

Butto has tallied five or more strikeouts in four of his five starts, though coincidently the one time he did not was against the St. Louis Cardinals, who got to him for a pair of longballs, four earned runs, three walks and just four strikeouts. The walks are the concern for Butto, as he is averaging one every other inning, which has him living on the edge of disaster as a fly ball pitcher. The projected lineup for the Redbirds has a 21.3% strikeout rate over the last season and change while also walking 9.6% of the time. That is not a good combination for Butto, who will hopefully use up his pitches faster than he has in prior games.

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Final Thoughts for Tuesday, May 7 — MLB DFS Picks

There are weather situations across the Midwest and the East Coast. During the early-evening slate, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Washington carry precipitation risks. Atlanta is really the only venue with elevated risk on the main slate, so that is at least fewer variables in the larger contests. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch for updates.

Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 5 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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