Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Strategy: Chargers-Jets (November 6)

For nearly two years now, I have been hosting the High Stakes podcast for Stokastic, interviewing DFS pros on a range of topics. There have been a lot of recurring themes on the show, but the most relevant for this article: DFS pros love MNF Showdown.

That is because a lot of casual NFL fans enter the Showdown fray to have some action on island games. As a result, DraftKings and FanDuel offer enormous contests with generous prize pools. The contests become more difficult to win, too, when there are hundreds of thousands of entrants, but with a large portion of the new players being casual, the increase in difficulty pales in comparison to the increase in prize pools. It is a tradeoff DFS pros will gladly make.

My goal with these Showdown articles — which I will be writing for each Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football NFL DFS slate this season — is to help you attack the largest-field DraftKings GPP like a pro. There are three main components to discuss when it comes to Showdown, and I will break them down accordingly: Projection, Correlation and Differentiation.

Week 9 Chargers-Jets MNF Showdown: NFL DFS Strategy

Projection

The goal in DFS is to make the lineup that puts up the most points, so a natural starting point is looking at individual players who are likely to put up high scores or high point-per-dollar scores. I rely on Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections and tools to determine which players should be core pieces of my lineups. I primarily look at the base projections and the Top NFL DFS Showdown Plays Tool, which publishes results of thousands of advanced simulations run by the Stokastic team.

Studs

These are the top-projected players on the slate. I’d recommend having at least three of these players in just about every lineup you make tonight, either as captain or in a flex spot.

• Keenan Allen ($11,600) has the ninth0highest target share of any player in the NFL, at 28.9%. He has the highest projection on the slate despite a tough matchup with a Jets defense ranked sixth in pass DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. Allen has a greater-than-65% chance of making the optimal lineup, according to Stokastic’s Top NFL DFS Showdown Plays Tool.
• Justin Herbert ($11,800) has better than a 50% chance of optimality.
• Austin Ekeler ($12,000) has played four games this season, and he’s had between 14 and 16 carries in each. He has also been targeted five times per game. This week, Ekeler faces a Jets defense that has been a bit of a run funnel, ranking 19th in run DVOA. Ekeler has around a 50% chance of optimality.
• Breece Hall ($10,400) has seen increased usage in recent weeks, and in Week 8 he had 12 carries and eight targets. Hall has a solid matchup against a Chargers defense ranked 21st in run DVOA. He has a nearly 50% chance of optimality.
• Garrett Wilson ($9,600) is sixth in the entire NFL in target share at 29.7%. Wilson has a great matchup against a Chargers defense ranked 27th in pass DVOA. Wilson has a greater-than-50% chance of optimality.
• Zach Wilson ($8,800) has around a 50% chance of optimality.

Top Point-Per-Dollar Plays

These are just a few players who will be featured throughout my lineups due to their high points-per-dollar projection. At the same time, because I will typically have at least three studs in each lineup, the top points-per-dollar plays are often players I will be pivoting away from in some lineups in favor of players who project a bit worse but who will also garner lower ownership. I am also excluding any player with a projection below 3 fantasy points from this list.

• Derius Davis ($200) ran routes on just 12.2% of dropbacks in Week 8 but is likely to see an uptick with Joshua Palmer now on the IR. It is worth noting, however, that Jalen Guyton (not in the player pool) is returning from injured reserve and may step right into a WR2 or WR3 role.
• Randall Cobb ($200) has been out since Week 6 but played 55% of snaps in that game. Cobb was most recently a healthy scratch in Week 8, so keep an eye on inactives. Even if he is active, Cobb might not get back to his early-season snap count.
• Michael Carter ($200) played 22.6% of snaps in Week 8, second among Jets running backs. He has played the second-most running back snaps in each of the past four games. Carter has standalone and contingent value.
• Quentin Johnston ($3,600) played 63.4% of snaps in Week 8 and saw six targets. He should also see increased opportunities with Palmer out.
• Tyler Conklin ($3,000) ran routes on 62.8% of dropbacks in Week 8, third most on the Jets. Conklin’s season-long target share of 11.9% is third on the team, and he is one of just four Jets with an end zone target.
• Joshua Kelley ($2,600) had six carries and ran four routes in Week 8. Kelley has standalone and contingent value.
• As usual, kickers and defenses are among the top point-per-dollar plays on the slate.

Correlation

In NFL DFS, correlations are endless, both positive and negative. Most are minor enough that they do not necessarily need to be factored into lineups. If you want to give a boost to your running back’s defense, for example, that is great; but running backs will frequently be optimal without the defense also being optimal, even in NFL DFS Showdown.

The only correlations that are almost mandatory to consider on NFL DFS Showdown slates involve quarterbacks — particularly non-rushing quarterbacks. That is because of the scoring dynamics on DraftKings. On each passing play, the pass catcher scores more fantasy points than the quarterback. For example, if a quarterback throws a pass for 5 yards, he will get 0.2 fantasy points — 1 fantasy point per 25 yards passing, divided by five. The receiver will get 1.5 fantasy points — 1 point per reception, plus half a point for 5 yards receiving. The quarterback also only gets four points per passing touchdown, while the receiver gets six points for a receiving touchdown.

The quarterback is also generally one of the most expensive players on his team. Thus, he will often need to be his team’s highest fantasy point scorer to be the optimal captain. Outside of rare occasions where the quarterback scores fantasy points by passing to a player who is not in the DraftKings player pool or gets points as a receiver on a trick play, there are essentially just two ways for the quarterback to be the highest-scoring player on his team: adding fantasy points via rushing or spreading the ball around to multiple pass catchers.

Some General Thoughts

• If you play a quarterback at captain, and he does not have rushing upside, and he is the most expensive player on his team, you will almost always want to have multiple of his team’s pass catchers in the flex. This is also largely true if the quarterback is only slightly less expensive than the most expensive pass catcher on his team.
• If you play a quarterback at captain, and he has moderate rushing upside, you can consider playing just one of his pass catchers in the flex — but multiple may still be preferred, depending on the extent of that rushing upside. The quarterback’s price may also come into play here; the more expensive he is, the more likely you will need to have multiple pass catchers in the flex.
• If you play a quarterback at captain, and he has major rushing upside, you do not necessarily need to play any pass catchers in the flex. This is relatively uncommon, and only applies to a few quarterbacks.
• If you play a quarterback in the flex, and he does not have rushing upside, you will generally want to have at least one of his pass catchers elsewhere in the lineup, either at captain or in another flex spot.
• If you play a quarterback in the flex, and he has moderate to high rushing upside, you do not necessarily need to include one of his pass catchers elsewhere in the lineup. But there will always be positive correlation there between a quarterback and his pass catchers.

Some LAC-NYJ Game-Specific Thoughts

• If you play Herbert: Herbert is averaging 11.6 rushing yards per game, and he has three rushing touchdowns already this season. Generally, Herbert should be paired with at least one pass catcher and preferably multiple if used at captain.
• If you play Wilson: Wilson is averaging 17.6 rushing yards per game this season. At his price point, Wilson can be played in the flex without any pass catchers, but more often he should be paired with at least one and ideally multiple when used at captain.
• Both Ekeler and Hall qualify as pass catchers.

Differentiation

Making highly projected lineups with smart correlations will separate you from the lowest level Showdown players, but there are many very smart casual players as well. Differentiation is the last step to separating pros from Joes.

In just about any DFS GPP, finding low-owned gems is key because lower ownership reduces the field of lineups you are competing against when the player has a 99th-percentile outcome. Taking it to the extreme, just as a thought exercise, let’s say that Ekeler scores 100 fantasy points tonight. You are not just going to need him; you will need him in the captain spot (150 fantasy points). If 20,000 lineups in your contest have Ekeler in the captain spot, you have essentially reduced the field of lineups you are competing with to 20,000. If only 200 lineups have Ekeler at captain, now we are talking.

On NFL DFS Showdown slates, there is an additional factor for large-field GPPs. We do not just want to find seldomly used players; we want to find seldomly used LINEUPS. Why? Well, I will give you two examples from 2021:

• On Sept. 20, 2021, DraftKings had a Milly Maker for the Packers-Lions tilt, but the top lineup was duplicated 231 times. Rather than winning $1 million, the users who entered those 231 lineups had to split the top 231 prizes, for just a bit over $6,000 each. That is despite having everything go their way, which requires an extreme amount of luck.
• On Oct. 11, 2021, we saw the other end of the spectrum: User rcoho1984 played a unique lineup in the Ravens-Colts Milly Maker, taking home not just a million dollars but a ticket to the Tournament of Champions.

If you are going to win — which takes a lot of luck, regardless of how well your lineup projects — I would suggest making it count. I am not necessarily concerned with making an entirely unique lineup like rcoho1984 did every single time, but I aim to be a lot closer to their unique lineup than those that were duplicated 231 times.

Some Easy Tricks

Low-owned players. Even if you are using other tricks to get unique, it is still a good idea to play a few players in some of your lineups who will not be getting much ownership. Some low-owned players to consider:

• Dalvin Cook ($1,400) requested a trade prior to the deadline, but the Jets were not able to find a trading partner. It is possible he could see his usage change now that the deadline has passed, but it’s anyone’s guess where it will go up or down (or change at all).
• C.J. Uzomah ($200) ran routes on 27.9% of dropbacks in Week 8. Uzomah has two end zone targets on the season, second most on the team. Jeremy Ruckert ($200), meanwhile, played 42% of snaps, matching his season high, and equaled Uzomah’s 27.9% route participation.
•  Malik Taylor ($200) played 36% of snaps in Week 8, his first regular season action. Keep an eye on inactives before playing Taylor. Xavier Gipson ($200) ran routes on 25.6% of dropbacks in Week 8.
• Donald Parham ($3,200) is not quite low-owned enough for this section, but it’s worth noting that Parham leads the Chargers with five end zone targets this season. Gerald Everett ($5,600) could also benefit from Palmer’s absence.

Embrace lineups missing some correlation pieces or even with some negative correlation. Generally, highly correlated lineups will be over-owned, whereas the field will avoid negative correlation at all costs.

• Quarterback against opposing defense.
• Pass catcher at captain without including the quarterback at flex.
• Multiple running backs from the same team in a lineup.

Leave salary on the table. This is the easiest way to lower your duplicates. Casual players assume that if they have salary left over, they should upgrade. The problem with this approach is that it almost inevitably leads to highly duplicated lineups. How much salary should you leave on the table? That is up to you. If it is less than $800 and you have not gotten extremely unique with player selections and weird correlations, it is likely you will have to split any winnings with many other entries.