We’re back with a four-game NBA slate on Tuesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Ja Morant and Pat Connaughton.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Ja Morant: Memphis Grizzlies-New Orleans Pelicans
After missing Memphis’ first 25 games, Ja Morant is finally back tonight and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,300. Undoubtedly a top five player in the NBA before his legal troubles, Morant has seemingly lost a lot of his luster with the public as other young guards like Tyrese Haliburton and Anthony Edwards have emerged as faces of the league. Simply put, Morant is being slept on right now and the DFS landscape outlines this perfectly with only 2.60% of lineups expected to roster him on DraftKings.
While we don’t know how many minutes Morant will play tonight, DFS players shouldn’t be overly concerned about his conditioning, as he’s been able to practice with the Grizzlies while under suspension. With Morant being an upper echelon fantasy producer, averaging 1.45 DraftKings points per minute, his upside is sky high at a relatively inexpensive $9,300 price tag. Despite the unknowns that surround Morant in his first game back, Stokastic’s tools have him being optimal 9.90% of the time this slate plays out. With Damian Lillard projected to be 24.70% owned at the same price point, pivoting to Morant is an elite way to get different without sacrificing any upside at all.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Klay Thompson: Boston Celtics-Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson seems to have found the fountain of youth recently, and he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $6,500. While Thompson has had a very slow start to the season by his standards, he’s turned it on big time recently averaging 41.37 DraftKings points over the Warriors past three games. While this type of production can’t be expected to continue, his upside is obvious for tournaments and the field isn’t getting to him nearly enough.
As of this writing Thompson is projected to be only 10.10% owned on DraftKings compared to a 17.00% optimal percentage. In what is projected to be a close game against one of the best teams in the NBA, expect the best Thompson has to offer tonight as he continues to try and turn his season around.Â
Contrarian Value — Pat Connaughton: San Antonio Spurs-Milwaukee Bucks
The highest graded leverage play on the entire slate, Pat Connaughton is the clear top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,900, as his cheap price tag calls for him to be optimal a whopping 15.30% of the time this slate plays out. Connaughton has multiple avenues for playing time tonight, and he’s an easy way to get different without much opportunity cost.
Although we aren’t rostering Connaughton for his upside, he’s one of the only players priced under $4,000 who’s actually projected for decent minutes tonight. With a bunch of really good guards to spend up on, it won’t take much from Connaughton to be viable and from a leverage standpoint, he allows for a different type of roster construction that otherwise couldn’t be utilized.
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