Coming off a small four-game slate, the NBA is back with a 10-game slate tonight. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Joel Embiid and P.J. Washington.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Joel Embiid: Minnesota Timberwolves-Philadelphia 76ers
In what sets up as potentially the game of the night from a real-life perspective, Minnesota travels to Philadelphia in a matchup of two of the top 5 teams in the NBA. While there isn’t a ton to love from this game in NBA DFS, Joel Embiid is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $11,600. He is coming into tonight’s action averaging 34.4 points, 11.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.1 steals per game, and he has arguably been even better than he was during last season’s MVP campaign. With DraftKings pricing as tight as it has been in a long while, the field is struggling to allocate $11,600 on Embiid. He looks great as a spend up to be contrarian in tournaments.
Embiid is an elite building block on every slate he’s on, and tonight is no exception. He is currently sporting a 63.34% boom percentage in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, so Embiid is obviously one of the top players on the board. While his optimal percentage is only 4.30% due to his high price tag, he still offers really nice leverage, as the field is only projected to roster him in 2.20% of lineups. There is a great deal of opportunity cost in spending $11,600 on any player with pricing so tight, but Embiid has the highest upside of any player on the slate.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — P.J. Washington: Charlotte Hornets-Indiana Pacers
The Pacers host the Hornets in a game with a whopping 248-point total. Despite this high total, P.J. Washington is falling through the cracks, and he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $6,300. He is matched up with an Indiana frontcourt that has been a dream spot for opposing big men, and Washington averaged 36.15 DraftKings points over his last two full games. With Mark Williams out for Charlotte, Washington has picked up some extra run at center, and he’s one of the top differentiators on the slate at an affordable $6,300 price tag.
As of this writing, Washington is projected to be optimal 7.90% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, and he has just a 1.90% ownership projection. Although seeing him at $6,300 might cause some sticker shock based on his recent price tags, almost every player on this slate has been priced up, making Washington’s salary much more palatable.
Contrarian Value — Trendon Watford: New York Knicks-Brooklyn Nets
Trendon Watford is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,900. With pricing up across the board and value options few and far between, Watford is projected to be optimal 13.50% of the time on DraftKings despite projecting for only 15.72 fantasy points. That optimal percentage demonstrates how valuable his $3,900 price is on a slate without many viable cheap options.
However, the field is not really interested in getting to Watford, as he’s projected to be only 4.00% owned on DraftKings. While these numbers can change as news comes in leading up to lock, as of now Watford looks like a really good differentiator with limited opportunity cost at a cheap price point. He is one of the only players priced under $4,000 to project for real minutes tonight.
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