The third night of NHL action for the 2023-24 regular season has a seven-game NHL DFS slate for picks, and there is a nice mix of stars and value plays. We will discuss some of those stars below, but most of this article will focus on cheaper alternatives to mix in with those high-priced pieces and stacks.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Center Picks Today
Patrik Laine (CBJ vs. PHI): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $6,300
One offseason storyline in Columbus was how the team would handle its center situation with the oft-injured Boone Jenner and rookie Adam Fantilli in the mix. The answer so far has been to use Laine as their top center, skating next to star winger Johnny Gaudreau. The duo of Laine/Gaudreau was good offensively on a very bad Columbus team a year ago, registering 3.1 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, a number better than the top lines from Carolina and Winnipeg. After returning from injury in early December, Laine had 20 goals, 48 points and 3.3 shots per game across 47 games. Notably, the power play’s goals per 60 minutes with Laine/Gaudreau on the ice rose from 4.8 to 7.3 upon Laine’s return from the injured reserve.
There are eight centers on DraftKings tonight priced over $6,500, and on a point-per-dollar basis, Stokastic NHL DFS projections have Laine tied at the top of that group. He is a volume shooter skating next to one of the best playmakers in the league while at home to a non-playoff team. All that makes Laine a tournament option.
Filip Chytil (NYR at BUF): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $5,300
Going back to the very end of the 2021-22 regular season, and including playoffs, Chytil has 30 goals in 102 games played. That isn’t an elite total, but that was also done while skating under 15 minutes a night. In the 2022-23 regular season itself, he led the New York Rangers in primary points per minute at five-on-five, just edging out superstar Artemi Panarin. Among all DraftKings centers priced $4,500 or less on the slate tonight, Chytil ranked second in fantasy points per game last year. He may not earn a lot of minutes, but his price reflects that reality, even as he’s set to center the second line alongside Panarin.
Visiting Buffalo is not a difficult matchup defensively. A year ago, the Sabres ranked 25th by expected goals against and 28th by actual goals against per minute at five-on-five while allowing the fourth-most power play goals against per minute. The team should be better defensively as its young stars mature, but “better” does not mean even league average, as there is a long way to go.
Chytil’s price on FanDuel means he’s not as good a value on that site, but he leads all pivots priced under $4,000 in Stokastic’s DraftKings NHL DFS projections, and the gap is wide (10% higher than the next-closest option). He is a good salary-saving option at center tonight.
NHL DFS Winger Picks Today
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN vs. FLA): DraftKings – $8,100 | FanDuel – $8,600
Last season, Kaprizov became just the second player since 2005 to score at least 40 goals in an 82-game season while missing at least 15 games due to injury. A big reason for his goal-scoring rise has been his shot-taking rise, as he’s gone from 2.9 shots per game to 3.9 shots per game across his three seasons. His point totals weren’t higher – 75 in 67 contests – because the team scored just 2.9 goals per 60 minutes at even strength with him on the ice, a sharp decline from the 4.1 goals per 60 posted across his first two seasons. His linemates shot just 7.1% at even strength, and his assists cratered because of it. Any sort of rebound there in 2023-24 would mean a big production season.
Florida is visiting Minnesota, and the road team is missing their top two defensemen (Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour) and second-line center (Sam Bennett) all due to injury. That is a lot of key players missing from a team that was 22nd by shots allowed and 21st by goals allowed per minute last season.
On both sites tonight, Kaprizov ranks as a top-3 option at the wing by points projection. Ownership is expected to be high – highest on DraftKings for any winger priced over $4,000 – but the matchup and his skillset means he warrants consideration in all formats.
Tyler Toffoli (NJ vs. DET): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $6,800
It appears there has been a mispricing on DraftKings. Toffoli was traded to New Jersey in the offseason after posting 34 goals, 73 points, and 3.3 shots per game last year. His DraftKings fantasy points per game was 11.9, a mark exceeding some wingers priced $3,000 higher than him tonight. He is slated to skate with superstar Jack Hughes both on the top line and on the power play. That gives a great goal scorer an elite dual-threat offensive star as his center, and Toffoli is priced as if he’s a third-line winger that might score 15 goals this year.
There is not a lot of explanation necessary here. Toffoli is far too cheap, and it’s why he leads Stokastic’s winger point-per-dollar values for anyone that isn’t min-priced on DraftKings. It is also why he leads ownership on that site. His higher price on FanDuel means it’s more of a question over there, but his role on the team means his value on that site is just fine as well.
Paul Cotter (VGK at SJ): DraftKings – $2,600 | FanDuel – $3,000
With Brett Howden looking as if he’ll be suspended for a play from the season opener, Cotter looks set to jump on the second line with Mark Stone and Chandler Stephenson. Stone has endured injuries over the last couple seasons, but with that duo on the ice at five-on-five, Vegas has scored 3.7 goals per 60 minutes — an elite offensive number. Cotter hasn’t shown a lot yet at the NHL level, but he’s getting a high-end offensive duo for linemates, and at his price, that’s about all that matters.
Going into San Jose is the other side of this coin. Last season, the Sharks were among the bottom 10 teams in the league by most defensive metrics, and they did not do much to improve in the offseason. This is, and will likely continue to be, one of the best matchups for 2023-24.
Cotter’s offensive skills are nowhere near those of his new linemates, and it’s what will keep his projection muted – he’s projecting lower than many options in this range on both sites. He is in play as a bargain-bin option, though.
Vegas’s new second-line winger is listed as a center on FanDuel so for a cheap winger on that site, look to Emil Bemstrom (CBJ, $3,300), as he’s lining up on his team’s second line.
NHL DFS Defense Picks Today
Zach Werenski (CBJ vs. PHI): DraftKings – $6,500 | FanDuel – $4,600
The biggest reason for including Werenski on this list is his price on FanDuel. He is the 14th-most expensive blueliner on that site, while he’s the third-most expensive at his position on DraftKings. That pricing discrepancy is something DFS players can use to their advantage.
Having missed nearly 70 games in the 2022-23 season, it’s easy to forget how good Werenski is offensively. His points per 60 minutes at even strength from 2019-2022 was 1.35, a mark higher than luminaries like Quinn Hughes and Erik Karlsson. A lack of power play production, at least when compared to other top offensive defenders, has long been an Achilles heel to his overall value. With Laine and Gaudreau healthy and young star forwards populating the roster, the hope is they gel quickly and provide Werenski with the power play production necessary to take a step in the DFS game.
Being priced where he is on FanDuel means Werenski leads Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections for blueliner priced under $5,000 on that site, giving him very good value. His elevated price on DraftKings makes him much less of a value, though he’s still acceptable in tournament formats.
Luke Hughes (NJ vs. DET): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $3,800
The younger Hughes brother is making his season-opening debut, and hopes are high for the fourth overall pick from the 2021 Draft. He has all the hallmarks of being a tremendous offensive defenseman; it’s just a matter of putting it all together.
Hughes the younger running New Jersey’s “second” power play unit indicates that the team thinks he’s ready for offensive responsibilities despite a grand total of five NHL games played. Referring to his power play unit as the “second” one is a bit of a misnomer because it contains all of Jesper Bratt, the older Hughes brother and Toffoli, a trio that would be the top unit on many of the league’s rosters. They may not earn high-end power play minutes, but at Hughes’ price, he doesn’t need a lot of minutes at any strength to succeed. That he’s in this power play role at all is a bonus for someone so cheap.
As a rookie with low ice-time expectations, Hughes is projecting poorly for his price. That price in conjunction with his power play role, though, is what makes him intriguing for tournaments.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks Today
Juuse Saros (NSH vs. SEA): DraftKings – $7,700 | FanDuel – $7,500
Last season, Saros faced more shots per game at even strength than goalies Jake Allen of Montreal and James Reimer of San Jose, two teams that ended up in the draft lottery. Nashville’s goalie was the only reason the team didn’t find itself close to, or inside, the bottom 5 – Saros tied for the league lead in appearances (64) and was tied for sixth in overall save percentage. Shot volume may be tough to come by with Nashville hosting a Seattle team that was 20th in shots per minute a year ago, but the visiting squad doesn’t draw a lot of power plays either, so the shots he does face should be lower quality than those he’d face from many other teams.
Saros is carrying a top-5 projection among all netminders on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and a moderate price makes him a good value. He is a target in net for all formats.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
BUF1: Tage Thompson-Jeff Skinner-Alex Tuch
Per Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool, this Buffalo trio has the sixth-highest chance of being a top-2 stack on this slate but are expected to come in with low ownership – between 1% and 2% on DraftKings and 6% to 7% on FanDuel. That discrepancy is because of their high cost, but it also provides DFS owners an opportunity to roster one of the top scoring lines from a year ago; they outscored the prolific Dallas top line (also on this slate) at five-on-five. That they all skate on the same power play unit is a bonus as well. Facing New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin is always a worrisome proposition, but their low ownership means they should be considered for tournaments.
MIN2: Matt Boldy-Joel Eriksson Ek-Marcus Johansson
Last season, Minnesota acquired Johansson to bolster its depth. When Boldy had Johansson next to him, the team generated 25% more expected goals and 22% more shots than when Boldy was not skating with Johansson. It was a huge deal for Boldy, as his linemates had struggled to help him generate offense in the first few months of the season – he finished the year with 15 goals and 23 points over his final 20 games, averaging well over three shots per game. Both Boldy and Eriksson Ek are slated to skate on the top power play unit, and Florida gave up the third-most power plays a year ago. Adding Kaprizov to make it a power play stack is fine, but this Minnesota trio is one of the highest-projected mid-priced stacks on Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool without the superstar winger.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick and AllThreeZones
