There are just five games on the NHL DFS docket tonight, and there is key injury news from the Ducks-Red Wings game that we are waiting on (at time of writing). If some key players return, it changes a lot about that game, and Stokastic members are strongly encouraged to check the Discord before lock for roster/injury information. Now let’s get into the top NHL DFS picks and stacks for Monday, Dec. 18.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Mason McTavish (ANA at DET): DraftKings – $5,900 | FanDuel – $6,600
Anaheim played last night (a 5-1 win) and tonight wraps up its road trip. McTavish has yet to play on this road trip due to injury but was a game-time decision over the weekend. He was brought on the trip and was a game-time decision recently, which lends to the belief he’ll play tonight. However, that is not confirmed, and we may not know his status until warmups. It is why checking the Discord before lock is always important.
If McTavish is back, he steps into a decent spot, even on the back-to-back. He will assuredly resume his role on the second line, a trio that has created 3.0 expected goals and 4.3 actual goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play this season. Detroit isn’t awful defensively, but it may be without Dylan Larkin (another player requiring injury updates), and that’s a significant downgrade for its lineup. The Red Wings also give the third-most power plays per game of any team in the league, so McTavish could see a very good special team matchup tonight.
Because we likely won’t get confirmation on McTavish’s status until warmups, there are no projections for him right now. However, early NHL DFS ownership projections have no Anaheim Ducks players in the top 25 for highest ownership on DraftKings tonight. If McTavish is in, he and his line mates will have low ownership, and the game has an early lock time. Paying attention to the news could be very beneficial.
Mikael Backlund (CGY vs. FLA): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $4,600
Backlund has been skating on the third line for Calgary, and though it has not been great offensively, it has been good by creating 2.8 expected goals and 2.8 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Those are all better than the team average when that line is off the ice, so it is creating well enough for the situation it is in. The big news for it is that over Calgary’s last couple of games, Backlund’s line all skated on the team’s second power play unit together. Not ideal slotting for ice time, but not awful, and that perfect correlation is valuable for NHL DFS.
Another update to this line is that it has been shifted out of a shutdown role over the last week or so, being used more often against the opposition’s bottom-6 forwards. Its last game against Tampa Bay saw Backlund rarely skate against the opposing top line, and avoiding that Aleksander Barkov matchup from Florida is important to creating offense against the Panthers as that top line has been an elite defensive unit this season.
Of all centers priced under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, Backlund is first and second, respectively, by fantasy point projection. It gives him very good point-per-dollar values regardless of the site, so he can be used as a one-off option or part of a Calgary stack.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN at PIT): DraftKings – $8,200 | FanDuel – $7,600
With just one assist and 11 shots in his last five games, Kaprizov has hit a cold streak. He has been united with Joel Eriksson Ek as a center recently and Minnesota’s offensive numbers with those two on the ice at five-on-five this season are excellent: 39.8 shots, 3.6 expected goals, and 3.4 actual goals per 60. Those numbers are all much better than when Kaprizov is on the ice with Eriksson Ek, so this is likely the best top-line duo that the team can assemble at the moment. Kaprizov cracking the 20-minute mark in five of his last six games avoids ice time concerns for some of its other wingers.
Visiting Pittsburgh tonight means a top-line matchup with the Sidney Crosby–Jake Guentzel duo, and while their offensive numbers are great, they have been on the ice for 3.0 expected goals and 3.1 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Those are bad defensive numbers and provide Kaprizov with a matchup that he can thrive in offensively.
Despite being arguably the best offensive player on the slate, a road matchup has Kaprizov outside the top 10 wingers by NHL DFS ownership projections on DraftKings tonight. That low ownership against a team that has struggled defensively at times is great news for tournament NHL DFS players. He will be much higher owned on FanDuel, so the decision to (not) play a chalky Kaprizov on that site is a bit easier.
Lucas Raymond (DET vs. ANA): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $6,200
Detroit was shut out in Philadelphia over the weekend, but it isn’t as if it failed to generate offense, landing 33 shots on target but not finding the back of the net. That game saw Raymond skate 19:25 and register four shots on goal. In fact, Raymond averaged 19:52 in ice time over his last five games, a large increase of over the 17:22 per game he averaged in his first 25 appearances this season. For a winger that doesn’t generate high levels of shot volume, the additional ice time can help squeeze out a bit of additional peripheral value that wouldn’t otherwise exist.
As mentioned earlier, there are potential injury returnees for Anaheim tonight. Even if that were the case, starting goalie John Gibson left Anaheim’s game yesterday, so it could be double duty for its backup. Beyond that, Anaheim is the most penalized team in the league by far, giving up 4.5 power plays per game to the opponent. It is also tied for the second-most goals against per 60 at five-on-five over the last four weeks, so this is a great matchup on all fronts for Raymond.
Of the wingers priced under $6,000 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel tonight, Raymond ranks fourth and fifth, respectively, by projected fantasy points. He is carrying solid value, but Detroit is also carrying the highest team total on the slate. It should drive a lot of ownership to Raymond, so a Red Wings stack is likely the tournament approach to take.
Gabriel Vilardi (WPG vs. MON): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $5,200
When talking about underrated players in the NHL, Vilardi’s name has to be near the top of the list. Last season, he was in the 82nd percentile of per-minute point production at five-on-five, exceeding names like Larkin and Sebastian Aho. Over the last two seasons, he’s been inside the 90th percentile. What had been lacking was a featured role, and he’s getting that now in Winnipeg by skating both on the top line and the top power play unit. That has pushed his per-game ice time to 18:49 over his last four games, a stretch that has seen him post seven points as that line has been very productive.
Tonight brings Montreal to town and a great matchup for Vilardi. His line is rarely used against opposing top lines when Winnipeg is at home, and Montreal’s last nine games has seen 19% more shots against with the top line off the ice at five-on-five. The Canadiens are also the sixth-most penalized team in the league, which gives Winnipeg’s power play a positive matchup tonight.
Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Vilardi above 2.0 by points-per-$1,000 value tonight on both DraftKings and FanDuel, meaning he’s a good value across the industry. The correlation with his linemates makes a line stack more appealing, and it could be the highest-owned line on the slate, but it is a line playing very well right now in a very good matchup.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Erik Karlsson (PIT vs. MIN): DraftKings – $5,800 | FanDuel – $6,400
This is another spot where watching injury news is important. Minnesota will be without top defensive defenseman Jonas Brodin while top overall defenseman Jared Spurgeon has missed the team’s last two games. Those two being out of the lineup would make this a lot easier for Karlsson and the Penguins.
Minnesota’s penalty kill was a problem until it fired its coach, but its goals against have dropped precipitously since then. The problem is it’s all driven by goaltending – its nine games under new coach John Hynes has seen the Wild give up the seventh-most shots per minute while short-handed, but a .934 save percentage has saved them. That is a number that screams regression and gives the Pittsburgh power play – Karlsson included – some upside, which is important, as it has shown signs of life lately with a pair of two-power play-goal games last week. Karlsson’s power play production was 57% higher last season, on a per-game basis, and a turnaround there would mean a lot to his already-stellar production.
Karlsson has a poor fantasy projection tonight and it’s partly because of Pittsburgh’s power play struggles. He is also projected for single-digit ownership tonight, however, and that makes him appealing for tournaments.
Ryker Evans (SEA at DAL): DraftKings – $3,400 | FanDuel – N/A
With four assists and 11 shots in six games since being called up, Evans has had a good showing so far. He is already being leaned on more by the team has he failed to reach 18 minutes in ice time in his first three games but has surpassed that mark in each of his last three games. He has even been slotted on the team’s second power play unit, but this is a team that usually splits its power play ice time somewhat evenly. It is a tough matchup going into Dallas, but starting goalie Jake Oettinger was injured over the weekend, and that helps matters a bit as Oettinger has been tremendous for his team on the penalty kill this season.
Evans still isn’t in the FanDuel player pool so if Chris Tanev isn’t back for Calgary, consider Jordan Oesterle (CGY, $3,700) who carries a solid projection at a cheap price.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Marc-André Fleury (MIN at PIT): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $7,500
With Minnesota playing tomorrow night in Boston, Fleury will start one of the games, and this seems like a logical one for him. He is 39 years old and in the last year of his contract, so this may be the last time that he gets to start in Pittsburgh, the team that drafted him and with whom he won three Stanley Cups.
Fleury has had bad numbers this year but how he got those bad numbers is important. At even strength, he has a .920 save percentage, a mark that puts him in the top third of qualified goalies this season. Also at even strength, he has a higher Goals Saved Above Expected (1.15) than starter Filip Gustavsson (-2.66). Fleury’s problems have been on the penalty kill and, other than those two games last week, Pittsburgh’s power play has been inept for much of this season. If that was just a random outburst for the Penguins, and not a sign of things to come, then this matchup isn’t so bad for Fleury.
Minnesota is projected to have the second highest save total tonight but sixth-highest goals against total. That discrepancy gives Fleury good value tonight at a moderate price, so he can be used in tournament formats.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
DET2: Alex DeBrincat – Joe Veleno – Lucas Raymond
Again, we need to wait for lineup confirmation due to Larkin’s status, but this trio skated nearly the entire game for Detroit on Saturday. It was also all on the team’s top power play unit, giving it perfect correlation. As mentioned in the section on Raymond, Anaheim takes a lot of penalties and is playing its second game in as many nights. Though DeBrincat and Raymond had much more offensive success with Larkin as their center (not a surprise), this is a great matchup for them both at five-on-five and on the power play.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this line with negative leverage – meaning higher expected ownership than top-2 stack probability – but it is also sixth by top-2 stack percentage. There are low-owned spots (like Florida) to pair with it, so it is in play tonight for tournaments.
CGY2: Connor Zary – Nazem Kadri – Martin Pospisil
Since being assembled last month, this has been arguably Calgary’s best line at five-on-five. It has created 2.8 expected goals and 3.0 actual goals per 60 minutes together, and it has helped Kadri turn around his season as he has four goals and five assists to go with 39 shots in his last 10 games. Like Backlund earlier, this is a line that is rarely used in a shutdown matchup, and that keeps it away from Barkov’s top line from Florida. This game also marks the end of a five-game, nine-day road trip for Florida, so it may be running a bit ragged at the moment. Beyond that, both Kadri and Zary are on the team’s top power play unit and while this is not a great power play matchup, top power play minutes are better than none.
Of Calgary’s top-3 lines, Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this trio has the lowest owned line of the trio. All three lines carry negative leverage, but this unit has been playing very well and fits in with expensive stacks elsewhere on the slate.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
