Happy Halloween, NHL DFS players! There are just two games on the NHL schedule tonight, but one features two teams with eyes on a Stanley Cup, and the other matchup is highlighting two teams trying to get back to the postseason. It is a fun pair of tilts, so let’s look at the top-expected performers, some values and the ownership that surrounds them.
As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to check the Discord at warmups for new lineup and injury information. Tonight’s lock time is 8 p.m. ET too, so there’s some extra time to get those lineups in.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Auston Matthews (TOR vs. LA): DraftKings – $9,800 | FanDuel – $10,300
Volume is a big part of any fantasy sport, hockey being no exception, and it’s one of the things that makes Matthews a highly valuable option. He is skating 22:33 per night through eight games, which leads all forwards in the league this year. That type of ice time for a player that is in the 96th percentile for shot attempts per minute leads to a high shot floor, and he has managed 4.5 shots per game this season.
Matthews’s line will see some of the Los Angeles top line matchup, and it has been good overall, but that Kings line has not been a high-end defensive line as in years gone by; it is giving up 2.5 expected goals and 2.9 actual goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Numbers like that are around the league average and it makes a reasonable matchup for Matthews and his linemates. The Kings are a good team, but it is one spot that can be taken advantage of offensively.
The lack of options tonight puts Matthews way in front of the other skaters in terms of fantasy point projection, as he leads them by at least 4 points, per the Stokastic prognostications. It will lead to a lot of ownership – he could push, or exceed, 50% in some contests – but his elite talent makes him hard to ignore with just four teams on the docket.
Tommy Novak (NSH at VAN): DraftKings – $3,900 | FanDuel – $4,800
Nashville moved Kiefer Sherwood back to Novak’s line a few games back and it’s paid off so far: the line is generating nearly 72 shot attempts and 38.3 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five in a limited sample. Of course, it has only been four games, but it has been a good start to that duo. In their time together, Novak has added 87 seconds of ice time per game, and more ice time is a good thing.
Going into Vancouver could mean a good power play opportunity for Novak too. Though he doesn’t skate on the team’s top power play unit, he is getting 41.5% of the team’s available power play time. The Canucks are giving up 3.9 power plays per game to the opponent, with the league average a little under 3.6, so this is an undisciplined team. The home side is also giving up the third-most shots per minute when down a man. Novak already has three power play goals this year, comprising half his points on the season. He will get his chances to add to that total tonight.
Novak leads all centers priced under $5,000 in Stokastic’s DraftKings projections tonight and that makes him a good value on that site. He also leads pivots in fantasy outlook on FanDuel, exceeding the next-closest option by roughly 10%. The Nashville center can be used in all formats tonight either by himself or with his linemates in a tournament stack.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Brock Boeser (VAN vs. NSH): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $7,500
Starting the season with a four-goal game can only lead to a downturn in production, but Boeser has managed two goals and 4 points in his last five appearances, averaging a shade under 19 minutes a game. Overall, Boeser is up to 18:58 a game in ice time, which is a three-year high and helping him to a career-best mark of 3.13 shots per game thus far.
On the year, Boeser’s line has skated over 81 minutes together at five-on-five. In that time, it is generating 69.7 shot attempts per 60 minutes. That isn’t hyper-elite, but it is well above average for other top-6 lines across the league and higher than the premier trios from teams like Toronto, Florida and Vegas. Nashville has done a good job of limiting shot quality at five-on-five but this Vancouver line’s ability to generate volume is important to breaking through that stellar defensive structure; this Canucks team put up three goals on Nashville, in Nashville, just a week ago.
Boeser is the fifth-most expensive winger on DraftKings tonight and carries the fifth-highest projection, making him a fine value in any format. He is (relatively) more expensive on FanDuel, so the value is less over there, but there is only one hyper-expensive winger on that site tonight so Boeser is acceptable.
Tyler Bertuzzi (TOR vs. LAK): DraftKings – $4,500 | FanDuel – $5,400
It has been a slow start for Bertuzzi, with just 3 points in eight games, but there’s some unlucky small-sample noise here. He has registered a point on just 20% of the five-on-five goals scored with him on the ice, a number that was 57.6% last year and has not been below 60% in any other season. It is shorting him a couple points, at least, and that would make his season look a lot better so far.
Importantly for tonight, Bertuzzi is down on the second line with John Tavares. Small samples abound again, but the team has generated more offense with Bertuzzi on the ice with Tavares at five-on-five – 74 shot attempts, 42.3 shots, 3.4 expected goals per 60 minutes – than with Matthews: 64 shot attempts, 34.2 shots and 3.1 expected goals per 60. Staying away from the opposition’s top competition while skating with a supernova-like William Nylander on the team’s secondary scoring line has shown early promise.
A lack of shot volume will keep Bertuzzi’s NHL DFS projections muted, and that is no exception tonight, but a moderate price on FanDuel gives him a good value proposition of 1.84 fantasy points per $1,000. He should also come in at lower ownership than his linemates on both sites, due to a lack of power play correlation, so including him in line stacks can help lower the average ownership rate.
Arthur Kaliyev (LAK at TOR): DraftKings – $3,400 | FanDuel – $4,500
Four points in six games has put Kaliyev off to a productive October following his suspension that marred his start to the year. His line with Phillip Danault has been dynamic at five-on-five, creating 72.2 shot attempts, 42.7 shots and 3.3 expected goals per 60 minutes. It is scoring a lot, with 5.6 goals for per 60, but even a little pullback in that line’s shooting percentage should still lead to a lot of goals due to the sheer volume of offense it is creating.
Going into Toronto is a very good matchup for Kaliyev and his third line. They will largely avoid Toronto’s top 2 lines, and with them off the ice, the Leafs are giving up 2.9 expected goals per 60 minutes, controlling just 42.7% of the expected goal share. That means the team’s third and fourth lines are getting run over, and Kaliyev’s line is one that can take full advantage of this kind of matchup. The winger has also managed over 16 minutes in each of the team’s last two games after having not surpassed 14 minutes in any of his first four outings.
Improved ice time totals and very good linemates are giving Kaliyev a very strong projection, ranking sixth on DraftKings and seventh on FanDuel among all wingers tonight. He is projected higher than several wingers with a higher price tag so he’s a target as a one-off option for this slate.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Quinn Hughes (VAN vs. NSH): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $6,500
The surge in Hughes’s fantasy value continues as he has added a new shooting dimension to his game. After never having been above 2.0 shots per game in any season of his career, he is sitting at 3.3 shots per game this season. He sits third in the league in shot attempts per minute among defenders, exceeding luminaries like Roman Josi and Erik Karlsson. He has managed at least three shots on goal in seven of his eight contests, posting three goals and 8 points in the meantime.
After Roman Josi, Hughes is carrying easily the second-highest projection on both sites tonight for all rearguards, clearing the next-closest option by 16% on DraftKings and 17% on FanDuel. There is a strong chance he’s the defenseman that ends up with the most ownership, or at least the second most, so there are decisions to make in tournaments, but he is still playable in all formats.
T.J. Brodie (TOR vs. LAK): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $4,300
Toronto will be without defenseman Jake McCabe for this contest and that puts more ice time into the fantasy profiles of the other regular blueliners. In the two games without McCabe, Brodie managed 22:23 and 25:33, his two highest ice time games of the season. Both those appearances saw him total three blocked shots, and he has reached the shot-block bonus on DraftKings in seven of his eight outings. His 3.5 blocks per game is third among all regular skaters so far this season.
On DraftKings tonight, Brodie is carrying a projection of 6.9 fantasy points and that makes him a nice value at his price. He is less of a value on FanDuel, where blocked shots mean less, so fantasy players may want to consider Nashville’s Tyson Barrie ($3,900) who is carrying a higher point projection for a lower cost.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Thatcher Demko (VAN vs. NSH): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $8,400
It has been a phenomenal October for Demko, who has three wins in five starts while posting a .936 save percentage. He has allowed two or fewer goals in four of those five appearances and never more than four, giving his team a chance to win every night. Going back to February, when Demko returned from injury, he has a .921 save percentage in 22 starts. Other than the first couple months of the 2022-23 season, when Demko may have been playing through that injury, he has been one of the top goalies in the league for a few years now.
Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has Demko with the lowest expected goal against total by a reasonable margin, being lower than the next-closest option by 7%. It helps him to the second-highest point projection so he’s acceptable in net in all formats.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
TOR2: Tyler Bertuzzi – John Tavares – William Nylander
In nearly 85 minutes together at five-on-five this season, the Tavares-Nylander duo has helped the Leafs create 41.3 shots, 3.4 expected goals and 3.6 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those are tremendous offensive numbers and a dual-threat option like Bertuzzi should help them maintain those rates, as explained in the section on Bertuzzi above.
Using the leverage portion of Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool, this Toronto trio is expected to have the second-highest gap between top-2 stack probability and expected ownership on DraftKings tonight and the largest gap on FanDuel by a significant margin. Price is the big reason why it is expected to be much lower owned on FanDuel, but on a short slate, that is a good thing. Regardless, it has a much better chance of success than it is getting credit for, and that makes them a tournament target.
NSH PP: Ryan O’Reilly – Filip Forsberg – Luke Evangelista
While not officially on Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool, shorter slates can often require some stacking creativity and there is a good opportunity for Nashville’s power play skaters tonight. As mentioned in the section on Novak, Vancouver takes above-average rates of penalties and are allowing a lot of shots when on the penalty kill. Conversely, Nashville’s top power play unit has already scored four times in eight games. It is riding a hot shooting percentage but could get plenty of opportunities for success tonight.
On the blueline, Nashville is using Josi and Barrie, so there are many ways to get unique with this power play stack. The bonus is moderate prices on Barrie and Evangelista means allowing a good second stack elsewhere in a DFS lineup. This Nashville power play unit should be considered in tournaments tonight, whatever form the stack takes.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools
