It is a healthy 10-game slate in the NHL tonight, but with injuries to superstars like Jack Hughes and Adam Fox, the high-end NHL DFS options aren’t as prevalent as they could be. It opens the slate a bit, so let’s look for players in new roles, pick through the elite players that remain and mine for some value.
As always, Stokastic members are strongly encouraged to check in with the Discord at warmups. That applies for every slate, but on a night with a handful of key injuries other than the ones already mentioned, it could mean some important lineup changes.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Sidney Crosby (PIT at ANA): DraftKings – $8,200 | FanDuel – $8,200
Even as he pushes through his mid-30s, the future Hall of Famer’s offensive contributions remain very strong, with five goals, six assists and 40 shots in 10 games this season. An 11-shot game is skewing Crosby’s shot total, but the curious part is that particular game was against Anaheim last week. There is an argument he’s been unlucky too, as he’s registered a point on just 57.9% of Pittsburgh goals with him on the ice, a number that has never been under 69% in any season with a three-year average of 71.8%.
Crosby’s line has been superb this season, creating 4.2 expected goals and 6.2 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. The actual goals are inflated, especially coming off the 10-2 beatdown of San Jose, but the expected goals have been nearly as high all season. Anaheim sits 24th by expected goals against at five-on-five, which is much better than last year but still not very good. They are also by far the most penalized team in the league, giving up over five power plays per game while no other team is over 4.4.
Ranking fourth by DraftKings projections among centers tonight but being priced where he is leaves the superstar with middling point-per-dollar values. The matchup is a tremendous one, however, and the middling value may deter DFS players in tournaments, making him and his linemates a target.
Vincent Trocheck (NYR vs. DET): DraftKings – $4,500 | FanDuel – $4,200
An injury to teammate Filip Chytil has moved Trocheck back to his usual second-line role with Artemi Panarin. Along with Alexis Lafrenière, that trio has created 3.1 expected goals and 2.8 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five over the last three seasons. Not elite performance, but perfectly fine for the DFS price tonight. Moving away from the third line, which had yet to score so far this season, is a big upgrade for New York’s second line center.
New York’s power play is another reason to use Trocheck tonight. The Rangers are hosting a Red Wings team giving up 3.8 power plays per game, tied for seventh in the league. Even with good goaltending, Detroit’s penalty kill has given up eight power play goals against in 12 outings. Erik Gustafsson is a very capable replacement on the Rangers power play blueline while Fox is injured, so the concerns of a big drop off aren’t as significant as they might be on another roster.
Among all centers priced under $5,000 on either site, Trocheck ranks second on DraftKings and first on FanDuel by projected fantasy points. It gives him tremendous point-per-dollar value, unlike Crosby, so he can be used as a one-off option. He may be best used as part of a Rangers stacks in tournaments, though.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Mikko Rantanen (COL vs. NJ): DraftKings – $8,500 | FanDuel – $9,900
Colorado has been shut out in three of their last four games, but that span saw them seventh in the league in shot attempts per minute. Rantanen managed 13 shots in those outings, so he’s staying involved offensively as well. When the winger has been on the ice with Nathan MacKinnon at five-on-five this season, the team is creating 3.0 expected goals and 5.0 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those are tremendous offensive numbers and show the upside the top Avalanche guys have tonight.
Having New Jersey in town tonight means facing a team missing Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, their top two centers. In the road team’s first game without both in the lineup, they allowed 34 shots to Chicago, a roster that was averaging 26.2 shots per 60 minutes up to that point. The Avalanche are also drawing an above-average number of power plays per game while the Devils have given up nine power play goals against in 11 games. With Rantanen still landing 3.7 shots per game, there are a lot of positives to this matchup.
Rantanen is among the top 3 wingers by point projections tonight on both sites, but his expensive price tag leaves his value something to be desired. All the same, it is an advantageous matchup with a top line that is a little snakebit, so it may shy some DFS players away ownership-wise.
Steven Stamkos (TB at MTL): DraftKings – $6,700 | FanDuel – $7,600
Tampa Bay is playing their second road game in as many nights, and that’s always a concern, but one thing that alleviates that concern is Montreal’s undisciplined play – the Canadiens are giving up 4.4 power plays per game to the opponent, more than any team not named the Anaheim Ducks. That, on top of ranking 22nd in shots against while on the penalty kill, means Montreal has given up over one power play goal against per game so far this season. That is good news for a top power play unit from the Lightning that has scored 12 goals in 12 games.
Going into Montreal – depending on Tampa Bay’s line combinations, which we won’t know until warmups – likely means Stamkos avoids top-line matchups. With Montreal’s top duo of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield off the ice, the team is giving up 35% more expected goals and controlling just 44.4% of the expected goal share. That plays into Stamkos’s favor tonight.
Stamkos leads all wingers in DraftKings projections tonight, clearing the next-closest option by over 6%. He and the Lightning will draw ownership, but the matchup may be too good to pass up, even on a back-to-back.
Our subject is listed as a center on FanDuel, so DFS players over there looking for a similarly priced option should consider Jeff Skinner (BUF, $6,600).
William Eklund (SJ vs. PHI): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $3,500
Coming off a pair of embarrassments where the team gave up 20 goals against, the Sharks host the Flyers tonight. In what has taken far too long, the team has put Eklund – their top prospect – on the top line with Tomas Hertl. Whether this will be a successful duo is unlikely, given just how bad this entire team is, but someone has to score goals for this team. That they are also skating together on the top power play unit gives them additional correlation, which is always a good thing for DFS.
A bonus for Eklund is the rising ice time. He skated just 16:19 per night across the team’s first six games, getting up to 18:07 per outing over the last five. That he’s going to the top line, as well as the top power play time, means that number may keep rising. If nothing else, the sheer volume of minutes that Eklund could see tonight means he’s a viable DFS option at his price.
Low pricing and an improved role are giving Eklund point-per-$1,000 values of 2.0 on DraftKings and 2.1 on FanDuel. Those aren’t exceptional, but they are solid, and the Sharks will not often carry much ownership.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Roman Josi (NSH at CGY): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $7,200
Even a slow start for Josi sees him on pace for 15 goals, 60 points and 3.5 shots per game. That slow start is partly because he’s registered a point on just 47.1% of Nashville goals when he’s been on the ice, a number that he been over 54% for five straight seasons and averaging 59.7% over the prior three years. He is being shorted by a couple points and it speaks to positive regression to come. That Nashville is visiting a Calgary team ranking 29th in the league by save percentage, a year after finishing 24th, gives them the potential to fill the net; the Flames have given up fewer than three goals just once this season.
Josi leads all defenders by expected fantasy production tonight, clearing the next-closest options by 25.7% on DraftKings and 15.9% on FanDuel. In a road matchup, though, he may not draw a lot of ownership and could be a good way to differentiate in large contests.
Alex Romanov (NYI vs. MIN): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $3,700
This might come down to what happens in warmups. Islanders defensemen Adam Pelech (game-time decision) and Scott Mayfield (missed Monday’s practice) might both miss this game tonight. Both may also play, which is why we mention at the top of every article to double-check the Discord for injury information at warmups.
With the injuries that team has endured, it has pushed Romanov into a bigger role as he’s averaging a career-high 21:42 per night and has reached 22 minutes in half his games. Last season, he surpassed the 22-minute mark in just 8/76 outings, so the bump is real. It has led to a lot more blocked shots as he sits at 2.3 per game, up from 1.7 per game in 2022-23. That has helped him reach the DraftKings block bonus in half his appearances thus far.
If the Islanders have all their defensemen back, consider Connor Clifton (BUF, $2,500 [DraftKings]: $3,700 [FanDuel]) instead. The team is thin on their own blueline, and he has skated over 19 minutes in his last three full games.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Devon Levi (BUF at CAR): DraftKings – $6,900 | FanDuel – $7,300
Levi is not confirmed to start, at time of writing, so be sure to double-check his status at warmups. Even if it’s another goalie, the Sabres are facing a Hurricanes team that is first in five-on-five shot attempts per minute. Their shot volume is prolific and can lead to big fantasy nights for opposing goalies like Levi. The New York Islanders just lost 4-3 to Carolina over the weekend, their goalie gave up four goals in the loss, but still put up over 21 DraftKings points because he faced 47 shots. There are always risks of being pulled early after a couple goals, or allowing five or six goals in general, but that is the boom/bust nature of DFS goaltending.
Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has Levi third by expected saves tonight, and he is one of the cheapest netminders on the slate. A blow-up game is always a concern, but the upside is clear and the price is right.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
ANA2: Ryan Strome – Mason McTavish – Frank Vatrano
Crosby was written about earlier, and that line has been very good offensively, but they’ve also been trading chances with the opposition. Pittsburgh’s top trio is giving up 3.2 expected goals against and 4.4 actual goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, rates that are 50% and 107% higher than when they’re on the bench. This Anaheim trio – often used in shutdown matchups – has created 3.5 expected goals and 5.8 actual goals per 60 minutes, so they have been able to create offense at extremely high rates. Despite the billing of a ‘shutdown’ line, they’re often dominating the opposition and scoring while they do it.
PHI1: Travis Konecny – Morgan Frost – Owen Tippett
With the Frost-Konecny duo on the ice over the last two seasons, the Flyers have generated 60 shot attempts shots and 3.3 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Those are very good offensive numbers and they adding Tippett gives that line another volume shooter. Frost and Konecny should both be on the team’s top power play unit in Sean Couturier’s absence, which gives them some nice correlation. Of course, the big appeal here is visiting a San Jose team that has given up 20 goals in their last two games. Even before those embarrassments, they were giving up 3.8 goals per contest. This matchup is as good as it gets in the NHL right now.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools
