There are just six games on the NHL docket tonight and most of the top superstars in the league have the night off. It opens up the slate a bit, so let’s look at some top options that do remain and dig into some less-obvious spots for value. Before we get on with our NHL DFS picks today, as always, Stokastic members should double-check the Discord leading to lock for updated roster information.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Mika Zibanejad (NYR vs ANH): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $6,900
It was a brutal start to the season for Zibanejad with just two goals and 11 points through 17 games leading to Thanksgiving. Things have improved dramatically as he has six goals and 12 points over his last 10 games. Though he’s not shooting much with 20 shots in those 10 games, the fact that his six goals were split evenly with three goals at even strength and three on the power play tells us a big problem with his start – a lack of scoring at all offensive strengths – may be a thing of the past.
This is a matchup that heavily favors New York for a number of reasons and one of the most important is Anaheim’s lack of discipline. The Ducks’ 4.4 power play opportunities given to the opponent per game leads the NHL by a wide, wide margin and it’s led to 24 power play goals allowed in 28 games. Zibanejad’s power play unit is tied for the league lead in PP goals scored this year (22) with Edmonton’s top forward quartet, so this is one of the most prolific power plays getting one of the best power play matchups in the league.
Zibanejad’s lack of shooting is leaving his Stokastic fantasy point projection lower than the top power play guys skating on the second line, but it’s also giving him a much lower ownership projection as well. That relatively low ownership is part of what makes him appealing for DFS tournaments tonight, so he can be used by himself or as part of a line stack.
Morgan Geekie (BOS at NYI): DraftKings – $3,500 | FanDuel – $3,700
The well-traveled Geekie isn’t a special player in his own right – he’s on his third team in four seasons for a reason – but what is special about him for tonight is his top power play role. Geekie was moved to Boston’s top power play unit in the team’s last game and, until we get further notice, it should be expected that he’ll be there again. That change was a big reason why Geekie skated 17:48 in Boston’s loss to New Jersey, the highest time-on-ice mark for him in seven weeks.
That top PP role is important for this matchup. The New York Islanders don’t take a lot of penalties – 28th in the league by PP opportunities given per game – but their penalty kill has been horrific, giving up 23 goals in 28 games. Despite ranking 28th by times short-handed per game, they are seventh in the league in PP goals given up per game. Boston has been a mid-pack power play team this season, but this is a good spot for them to get on the board, raising Geekie’s DFS profile.
Among all centers priced under $4,000 on either site, Geekie ranks 3rd on DK and 1st on FD by fantasy point projection tonight. It gives him very good point-per-dollar value at a very cheap price, making him a salary-saving one-off option for this slate.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Joe PavelskI (DAL vs. OTT): DraftKings – $6,100 | FanDuel – $7,300
As we stay on the topic of power plays, Dallas’s top PP unit has been as good as it was last year, scoring 14 goals per 60 minutes. For reference, Tampa Bay’s top PP unit sits at 13.5 goals/60 this season and they’ve been super-elite. Pavelski had been a big part of that success, scoring six PP goals in 27 games played, pacing for his second-highest PP goal total in a single season. That PP goal rate has provided Pavelski with half his goals scored in total this season (12).
Ottawa rolls into Dallas last night having played (and lost) last night in St. Louis. Going back to Halloween, a span of 16 games, the Senators are giving up the ninth-most shots and fourth-most goals against per minute while short-handed. It has resulted in 14 PP goals allowed in those 16 contests, and that makes this a great PP matchup for Dallas. That extends to Pavelski, obviously, as he carries the highest goals per minute of all regular power play forwards in the league this season.
Pavelski doesn’t shoot a lot for his price – 2.4 shots per game – so it leaves his projection low relative to some others in his price range. However, like Zibanejad, it leaves him with a much lower DK ownership projection (9.3%) than others in his price range like Clayton Keller (28.1%) and Mark Stone (15.5%). The correlation with his line mates means Pavelski should probably be used in a line stack, but he’s just fine as a one-off option in tournaments.
Mark Stone (VGK vs. BUF): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $5,900
The Vegas top line has often been featured in these pages over the last few weeks as Stone was moved to the top line with Jack Eichel. In nine games on the top line, Stone has managed five goals and six assists while skating 18:50 per night. He hasn’t been shooting much – just under two shots per game – but skating with one of the top dual-threat offensive players in the league has been a big boost to Stone’s DFS production profile.
Buffalo is in town, and they are a team that can’t get healthy; as soon as Alex Tuch returned to the lineup, Jeff Skinner was injured. Buffalo hasn’t been horrific defensively over the last month – 19th by expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 – but that is still below average, and their actual goals against sits 24th. They are also giving up the fourth-most goals per minute on the penalty kill in that span, though not taking many penalties is keeping their raw goals against total down.
Among the flanks priced under $6,000 on both DK and FD, Stone leads Stokastic fantasy point projections tonight by a comfortable margin. The good matchup could lead him to being in the mid-teens by ownership, but his recent production surge and good point-per-dollar value brings him into play as a tournament solo option or as part of a Vegas stack.
Fabian Zetterlund (SJ at ARI): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $4,900
One thing that separates Zetterlund from the rest of the San Jose skaters is his shot volume; he has 33 shots over his last 10 games and his 16.9 shot attempts per 60 minutes this season is 26% higher than the next-closest Sharks forward. He has two DK shot bonuses in that most recent 10-game stretch, scoring four goals in that span. The additional good news is he’s earning more ice time in those 10 appearances, averaging 20:19 per game compared to 16:26 across his first 19 games of the season.
Arizona is the better team, but they are going through some serious injury issues right now. They will be without top defenseman Sean Durzi tonight, they are already without top-line center Barrett Hayton, and top-line forward Nick Schmaltz is a game-time decision. Arizona is 22nd by expected goals against at 5-on-5 over the last four weeks, and they will be without two, if not three, key skaters for this tilt. It gives Zetterlund a much better matchup than he would otherwise.
Of the wingers priced under $4,000 on DK and $5,000 on FD, Zetterlund is third by fantasy point projection for tonight. Arizona is a hobbled team right now and his ownership is projected under 10% on both sites. He can be used either as a cheap one-off or as part of a Sharks line stack.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Jake Sanderson (OTT at DAL): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $6,200
Though he has just two points in his last 10 games, Sanderson has found other ways to contribute. That stretch saw the defender land 22 shots on target while blocking 26 shots in return. On the season, he’s averaging two shots and just over two blocks per game, giving very solid peripheral production. It is a tough matchup for Ottawa tonight, playing their second game in as many nights, but they have scored nine goals in three games this season when on the second of a back-to-back. Dallas is 21st by shots allowed while short-handed over their last 15 games, and Sanderson is still the top power play’s quarterback.
Sanderson carries single-digit ownership projections on both sites tonight, and will be much lower on FD because of his (relatively) high price. He doesn’t have a great point-per-dollar proposition
JJ Moser (ARI vs. SJ): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $4,300
In two games without Durzi in the lineup, Moser has skated 20:42 and 25:49, both above his season average of 19:27 to that point, and that 25:49 is a season-high for him. The 23-year-old has also taken over the team’s top PP unit, and Arizona’s top unit is just under 10 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage, a very good rate. Moser can’t replace Durzi’s skills, but he’s had a big upgrade in his role, and he has eight DK block bonuses on the season, so he can provide more than just goals and assists.
Moser is carrying a strong projection for his price tonight, and that gives him a point-per-$1,000 value of 2.3 on DK and 2.2 on FD tonight, per Stokastic projections. He is also not projected for double-digit ownership on either site, so he doesn’t appear to be an over-owned defender. He can be used in all formats tonight at a very reasonable cost.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Juuse Saros (NSH at CAR): DraftKings – $7,400 | FanDuel – $7,600
Since being pulled in his fourth start of the season, Saros has posted a .915 save percentage in 19 starts and has averaged 30 saves per start in that span. Over the last four weeks, Carolina is second in the league in shots per minute but 12th in the league in goals per minute, giving a nice shot-to-goal discrepancy in favor of the opposing goalie. The Hurricanes are also playing their second game in as many days, and third in four nights. It is a road game against a playoff team for Saros, but he has been very good for nearly two months now and this should be a tired home side.
The GoalieStats section in Stokastic’s projections have Saros with the third-highest save total tonight but the fifth-highest expected goals against mark. He is also projected for ownership under 6% on both sites, making him a low-owned goalie that has a good chance to see a high volume of shots against. That makes him an ideal tournament goalie on a slate this size.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NYI1: Anders Lee – Bo Horvat – Mathew Barzal
When Boston is in town, it usually means a tough matchup. It isn’t easy, necessarily, but this Boston roster is not the juggernaut of last season. Over the last four weeks, the Bruins are tied for 19th in the league by expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 (tied with Buffalo, actually) while ranking 16th by actual goals against. The Bruins will also be missing two of their top three defensive defensemen tonight with Derek Forbort and Charlie McAvoy injured. In eight games since being assembled, this top Islanders line has scored 13 goals; they had 14 combined goals over the team’s first 20 games. They are creating a lot of offense at a time when Boston is struggling in their own zone.
Increase prices and the matchup with Boston is driving down this Islanders line’s expected ownership as they sit under 3% on both DK and FD. They are carrying a top-2 stack probability over 6%, though, and that gives them positive leverage tonight. It is not an ideal matchup, but a 2-3% owned top line, at home on a six-game slate, should be in consideration for tournaments.
ARI2: Lawson Crouse – Nick Bjugstad – Mattias Maccelli
While injuries may have meant more ice time for this Arizona trio anyway, their play has pushed them to skating between 18:30 and 19:10 per night over six December games; the first six weeks of the season saw them skate between 15-17 minutes per contest. In nearly 230 minutes at 5-on-5 this year, they’ve averaged 33.7 shots, 3.5 expected goals, and 3.1 actual goals per 60 minutes. They have also been earning over two power play minutes per game each this month as their stellar play has meant more minutes everywhere.
At the other end of the leverage scale is this Arizona trio that is carrying heavy negative leverage on both sites, meaning a higher ownership projection than top-2 stack probability. However, there are a number of top lines bunched together by pricing and some of them (like the Islanders line above) is carrying good positive leverage. That high Arizona ownership can be balanced elsewhere and they do have the fourth-highest team total on the slate. Avoiding this trio because of ownership is sensible but this is a very good spot for a very good line.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
