For the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Southwind (par 70, 7,243 yards, Bermuda greens) in Memphis, Tenn., for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Only the top 70 players in FedEx Cup points will compete at this no-cut event, and only the top 50 in FedEx Cup points will advance to the BMW Championship next week. Let’s look at Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage PGA DFS picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Leverage scores compare a golfer’s ownership to their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament. It is one of many metrics in Stokastic’s tools that use the fantasy point and ownership projections to find the top PGA DFS plays each week.
PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship
TPC Southwind is a challenging test of golf, with the course’s biggest defenses being its narrow, tree-lined fairways, small greens and water on 11 of the 18 holes. Most importantly, golfers need to be in promising form with their irons and avoid the large numbers on scorecards to contend at TPC Southwind. Of the last five winners at this track, four have finished the event top 6 in both strokes gained on approach and bogey avoidance. As always with a par 70, play on the par 4’s is extremely important as well. For five years running, the victor at TPC Southwind has finished the tournament top 3 in par-4 efficiency, with three of these players leading their fields in the category.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 18th
After taking the last three weeks off, Fitzpatrick should be well prepared to make a deep run this postseason. Also, TPC Southwind is a course where he has flourished in the past, with three top-6 finishes in just four appearances.
On top of gaining strokes with his irons in eight of his last 10 starts, Fitzpatrick ranks seventh in bogey avoidance over his last 50 rounds. Furthermore, he has nine top-25 finishes this season, four of which came at courses that are home to Bermuda greens, including a win at the RBC Heritage. Fitzpatrick is primed to contend at TPC Southwind again and is a terrific high-end GPP target, with him hovering around only 10% expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections.
Jason Day
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 6th
Day is not getting the attention he deserves — Stokastic is projecting him for only around 10% ownership on DraftKings — and he is tremendous target for GPPs. He is coming off a runner-up finish at the Open Championship and now has eight top-10 finishes to his name this season, putting him a tie for the sixth-most top-10s this year.
Day finished sixth at TPC Southwind three years ago and absolutely is a threat to contend this weekend. No player in this field has been more efficient at avoiding bogeys than Day over the last 50 rounds. Plus, he ranks sixth in par-4 efficiency and fifth in that category on 450- to 500-yard par 4’s during this time, which bodes extremely well for TPC Southwind, where six of the 12 par 4’s fall in this range.
Lucas Glover
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 16th
Glover is a must-have for GPPs, with Stokastic slating him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings. He just won the Wyndham Championship last week by two shots, which is his fourth top-6 finish in his last five starts. Glover now sits at No. 53 in the World Golf Rankings, which is the highest he has ranked in over 12 years. During this impressive run, Glover has gotten back to being one of the best ball strikers in the world, with him ranking top 5 in strokes gained on approach, strokes gained tee to green and fairways gained over his last 24 rounds.
Additionally, Glover ranks fourth in par-4 efficiency and 11th in bogey avoidance during this span, setting him up perfectly for TPC Southwind. Glover was in the mix for a win here last season, finishing third, and he brings top-10 upside at an affordable cost.
Brendon Todd
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 30th
Todd has produced three top-20 finishes at TPC Southwind in six tries at the track and arrives in Memphis on the heels of a seventh place at the Wyndham Championship that included a 7-under 63 during the second round. That marked Todd’s lowest score of the season. He has posted a top-10 finish in two of his three most recent starts and has advanced to the weekend in 11 of his past 13 starts. Todd impressively gained strokes on approach and with his putter at nine of these events, and he also ranks sixth in driving accuracy over his last 50 rounds.
Evident from his record at TPC Southwind, Todd is a great match for the track. With Stokastic forecasting him for low ownership on DraftKings, he is a stellar, cheap option for GPPs.
