How does another Sleeper NFL free square sound to you? Yesterday they brought us a nice little Anthony Davis discount, and the fun isn’t stopping tonight as Sleeper shifts over to a star in the Titans-Steelers Thursday Night Football game. The play: Derrick Henry higher/lower than 0.5 rushing yards!
For those of you unfamiliar with Sleeper Fantasy outside of their season-long fantasy leagues, their pick’em contests are quite simple: All you need to do is guess whether a player will go for higher or lower than their statistical target that Sleeper sets, and you can increase your winnings by including more picks and getting them all right. So having one locked in — like this Henry free square — is a great way to get your Sleeper plays on the right track.
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Sleeper Fantasy NFL Picks & Predictions | Week 9 TNF
Derrick Henry H/L 0.5 Rushing Yards
It’s been an interesting season for Henry and the Titans running back room. He is averaging a modest 75.1 yards rushing per contest, right in line with his original Sleeper number of 72.5, but Tennessee has also earmarked a lot of touches for his backup Tyjae Spears. And Spears figures to get a decent amount of time out there today with the Titans starting Will Levis at quarterback, as a shifty running back who can catch and make plays in the open field is a great complement to an inexperienced rookie passer. Henry is projecting for just under 75 yards rushing to Spears’ 21.6 tonight.
Blah, blah, blah — none of this really even matters in this case. Henry needs a single, solitary yard on the ground. Trends do not matter, projections — throw them out the window (but only for this one pick). Henry is going to get the 1 yard he needs to exceed 0.5 and get Sleeper entries going; he has played in 109 games in his NFL career and registered at least 1 yard in 108 of them. The one time he fell short came in his rookie season in a game where he played three total snaps. Barring injury, Henry is a lock to go higher here — enter it and bask in the win, it’s that simple.
OK, it’s almost that simple. For a valid Sleeper entry, you need at least two picks, so let’s go and grab those Stokastic Pick’em Pro projections we threw out the window and use them to find another winning play that gets us over the finish line. How about George Pickens higher than 53.5 yards receiving? Pickens is projecting for a solid 63.4 tonight, which gives him a 54% chance of eclipsing 54.5. Boom — an entry that will win you 3.16 times the dollar amount you submit!
Add more picks to these two to increase your multiplier even further. The more you play Sleeper, the better acquainted you will get with their payout structure and strategy for building +EV plays. Want to learn more about Sleeper Fantasy? Check out Stokastic’s breakdown of everything they offer here!
