For the first time this season, the NFL main slate is on Saturday. As weather starts to get cold, the game totals have fallen significantly. There are still some great options on this 10-game slate, so there are plenty of decisions to make. This article features boom candidates for NFL DFS picks in Week 16, including Christian McCaffrey, and DFS fade options at each position on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NFL DFS Picks Week 16: Best High-Upside Plays
NFL DFS Picks Week 16 Boom Picks
QB Daniel Jones – New York Giants
DraftKings – $5,600; 10.5% Boom | FanDuel – $7,400; 7.2% Boom
For the first time all season, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is a recommended option despite several strong plays on this 10-game slate. Jones will get the luxury of playing against a Vikings defense that has allowed the most yards per game this season. They rank 27th in pass DVOA while allowing 278.8 yards per game, which ranks as the second highest in the league. Jones is an incredible value on DraftKings where he has the highest boom percentage for quarterbacks and makes a strong play on FanDuel where he has the second highest.
Jones is the best value on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week in Stokastic’s projections. In his fourth season in the league, Jones has a career-high completion percentage, QBR, and quarterback rating while only throwing four interceptions. He also provides a floor with his legs as he has career highs in both rushing attempts and yards per game. This matchup against the Vikings features the third-highest total on the slate with the Vikings favored by four points. Jones is in a great game script for a ceiling performance at a very cheap salary.
RB Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings – $8,800; 29.0% Boom | FanDuel – $9,400; 27.5% Boom
The top two plays on the entire slate come at the running back position with Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. Even though McCaffrey is cheaper on both sites, he has by far the highest boom percentage on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. It hasn’t taken long for McCaffrey to cement himself as one of the best players on the 49ers. He has rushed for over 100 yards and one touchdown in back-to-back games, while still being heavily involved in the passing attack. To no surprise, McCaffrey also has the highest projected ownership on both sites.
The 49ers have been on a heater recently winning seven straight games. They are touchdown favorites against the Commanders who are a very impressive fourth in rush DVOA this season. Even though the Commanders have been very good on defense, McCaffrey is so involved in the 49ers game plan. In Stokastic’s projections, McCaffrey has the highest projected fantasy points on DraftKings and the third highest on FanDuel. McCaffrey led the league last week with 32 touches. Getting that much usage makes him a fantastic play this week.
WR Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings – $9,300; 15.0% Boom | FanDuel – $9,300; 17.9% Boom
Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has overtaken Tyreek Hill in receiving yards averaging a very impressive 115.9 per game. Priced at $9,300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jefferson has the highest boom percentage for wide receivers on both sites and the highest behind both McCaffrey and Henry. He is the top target on a team that has a 26-implied team total. Jefferson ranks third in the entire league with a 28.4% target share and leads the league with a 70.3% catch rate. In such an intriguing game to stack, it is impossible to ignore Jefferson.
The Giants lead the slate in Top Stack Rating this week, but the Vikings are right behind them on DraftKings ranking second. Two games ago, Jefferson had a franchise-high 223 receiving yards against the Lions. In only his third season, that is a pretty impressive feat. Having a new head coach implementing his offense geared around Jefferson has been a big help in taking his game to the next level. The Giants defense ranks 29th in total DVOA this season, making this an awesome matchup to get exposure to Jefferson against this weak secondary.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs
DraftKings – $8,000; 14.6% Boom | FanDuel – $8,600; 17.6% Boom
For the third straight week, Travis Kelce is ranking as the top tight end on the slate by a landslide. Last week Kelce had over 100 receiving yards for the first time in the last four weeks. He ended up catching all 10 of his targets with his longest reception only going for 18 yards. After three straight home games, the Chiefs return home this week against the Seahawks as double-digit favorites. The Chiefs are implied for a slate-high 29.5 points as they have scored over 30 points in back-to-back games and look to make it three straight this week.
It should be no surprise that Kelce has the highest boom percentage on both sites for all tight ends this week. However, it is much lower than the past few weeks. Regardless, Kelce is the only tight end to pay up for on this slate as the salary on other top tier tight ends have plummeted. Kelce continues to lead the Chiefs in targets, receptions, receiving yards and has a career-high 12 touchdowns. Being the top option for an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes is a huge boost to his ceiling. No secret again this week, just play Travis Kelce.
NFL DFS Picks Week 16 Fades
QB Justin Fields – Chicago Bears
DraftKings – $7,500; 67.0% Bust | FanDuel – $7,800; 50.8% Bust
With three games left in the regular season, Bears quarterback Justin Fields finds himself 207 yards from passing Lamar Jackson for the most rushing yards in a season for a quarterback. To be fantasy relevant at his inflated salary, Fields needs to basically be treated like a running back needing to get over 100 rushing yards and at least one score on the ground because he ranks dead last in the league in passing yards with 157.5 per game. His lack of passing work has Fields with a very high bust percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Fields quest for the rushing record will be put to the test this week in a difficult matchup against the Bills defense that ranks fifth in total DVOA and third in rush DVOA. They are allowing just over 100 yards on the ground as the Bills are 8.5-point home favorites. This game has one of the lowest totals on the slate at 40.5, while the Bears have an implied total of only 16 points. The Bears have the second-worst Top Stack Rating on DraftKings and the fifth worst on FanDuel. Even with his rushing upside, Fields is a fade candidate this week.
RB Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns
DraftKings – $7,700; 62.9% Bust | FanDuel – $7,900; 44.4% Bust
Browns running back Nick Chubb missed another practice on Wednesday, but there still is a lot of optimism that he will play this week. Chubb has yet to miss a game all season and is still priced very close to the elite running back tier despite his lack of recent production. With McCaffrey and Henry looking so good this week, Chubb is the exact opposite with the highest bust percentage by far of the elite options. Early in the season, Chubb was the best running back in the league, but he has fallen off quickly and his price tag has yet to adjust.
In Chubb’s first five weeks he averaged 118.6 rushing yards per game and scored seven touchdowns. However, over the last nine weeks, Chubb is only averaging 73.2 rushing yards per game and has scored only five touchdowns. His DraftKings points per game has also dropped from 24.6 to 14.5 per game. Chubb has failed to reach double digit DraftKings points in three straight games. With a game total of a slate-low 32.5 points, it is difficult to get exposure to anyone from this game. The Saints matchup is good, but Chubb has not been good.
WR A.J. Brown – Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings – $7,700; 66.6% Bust | FanDuel – $8,400; 54.4% Bust
A.J. Brown has found himself in this fade candidate column a few times due to how boom or bust his production has been. Once again, Brown and his teammate DeVonta Smith have a very high bust percentage this week. Not only has Brown been inconsistent, but now the Eagles will be playing without MVP front-runner Jalen Hurts as he may be out for the remainder of the regular season with a shoulder injury. The Eagles will turn the quarterback duties over to Gardner Minshew who hasn’t been all that bad as a starter in his career.
The Eagles may be fine moving forward with Minshew, but this matchup would have been difficult even with Hurts at quarterback. The Cowboys defense ranks third in total DVOA and fourth in pass DVOA this season. They are allowing only 191.6 passing yards per game, which ranks as the third-best in the league. The Eagles may find more success on the ground with Miles Sanders than through the air this week. They have a below average Top Stack Rating on both sites this week, which is rare for one of the best offenses in the league.
TE George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings – $5,300; 55.3% Bust | FanDuel – $7,000; 54.0% Bust
A George Kittle ceiling game has been rare this season, but last week was the second time all season that he scored two touchdowns. Kittle has yet to reach over 100 receiving yards in a game and only has six touchdowns. His salary on both sites has risen to a point where he is the third-highest priced on DraftKings and second highest on FanDuel. With that inflated salary, Kittle has well above a 50% bust percentage on both sites this week. Kittle may have a strong connection with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, but he is still a fade candidate.
As previously mentioned, the 49ers have been fantastic as of late. Even with being heavy home favorites against the Commanders, this game total is currently only 38 points as the 49ers will lean on their top-rated defense. Deebo Samuel is out for the 49ers, which does boost the target share more towards Kittle. There is always a risk with Kittle due to how fantastic of a blocker he is. The 49ers rank 31st in pace this season, so expect a slow and methodical game plan with heavy doses of McCaffrey. There likely won’t be enough opportunities for Kittle to exceed value at his new price point.
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