We’re treated to a seven-game slate on Friday. As the season heats up with teams making their strides toward playoff contention, the matchups should be entertaining opportunities to cash out on NBA player prop value. We jump over to OddsShopper to seek out the best NBA odds on the day, and we’ll cross-reference relevant player stats, rotations and trends while being mindful of recent injury news in our effort to identify the best NBA betting picks to begin the weekend. Tonight we’ll focus on Donovan Mitchell and LeBron James.
NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | March 12
Donovan Mitchell, OVER 26.5 Points (+100, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Jazz are playing their first game since the break and draw an elite matchup tonight against the injured Rockets. As the team’s leading scorer, Donovan Mitchell should be licking his chops. His line of +100 on over 26.5 points presents some great value given Houston’s limited backcourt. Mitchell is averaging 24.7 points in 35 minutes a game and has 31.6% usage. And his team-leading scoring has even seen an uptick as of late; he is averaging nearly 27 a game over the last 12, and his usage has jumped to 33.5%. Blowout potential is of some concern here, but Mitchell should still get his typical 30 to 32 minutes.
The Rockets are allowing the fourth-most points per game to shooting guards, at 24.5. As a whole they have allowed the ninth-most points, and that is before factoring in the number of injuries they are dealing with. John Wall is questionable, and P.J. Tucker, Danuel House, Christian Wood and Eric Gordon, among others, are guaranteed to miss. Today’s bets are a bit stingy, so I will gladly take a swing on Mitchell to score 27 or more against a hobbled team that struggles to defend even when healthy.
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LeBron James, OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+145, BetMGM & PointsBet)
LeBron James‘ 3-point shooting is always a dangerous wager, but the near-50% return bonus makes this line much more appealing. Three 3’s is hefty for him, but it is certainly not impossible given the way James is shooting this year, and the line is too generous for me to look past.
James leads the Lakers in attempted 3’s this year, with 6.7 a game. That amounts to 34.9% of his shot attempts, and the 2.4 makes per game provide 27.7% of his scoring. His efficiency is also slightly up, now at 35.8% compared to 34.8% last year. He has a season-high of 7 makes, and since his average is just 0.1 below tonight’s prop line, the plus-money looks even more inviting.
His opponent tonight, the Pacers, will still be without Caris LeVert for one more game. Even without LeVert, however, they have defending the 3 well, surrendering just 12.1 per game (ninth in NBA). Just 2.3 of those come from small forwards. The Lakers, however, are thin at the post with no Anthony Davis or Marc Gasol, so perimeter shooting may play a bigger role going up against a solid Indiana interior. Do not be surprised if James attacks from another angle than his usual penetration-heavy style. James has not taken fewer than 4 shots from deep this year and has a season high of 10, so he can realistically make 3 in a game environment that may demand more outside shooting from him. He could realistically pay these odds off before the end of the third quarter.
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