Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free Expert Baseball Picks & Predictions 4/19

Today there is a 17-game MLB slate that includes two doubleheaders to make up some rainouts on Monday. There looks to be weather in that area again today, so it is to be seen how that impacts the slate. With doubleheaders, typically it is not clear who will be in the lineups for which games, so this likely will not affect the predictions today. Yesterday’s article hit Freddie Freeman +500 home run prop, and we’ll be looking to capitalize on another day of finding the best MLB prop bets.

Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort, and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Tonight Gerrit Cole takes the mound as the New York Yankees take on the Detroit Tigers. Gerrit Cole is 0-0 with a 5.59 ERA but a 3.87 xFIP and a 23.1% strikeout rate this season in two starts. In his first start, he went just four innings and threw 68 pitches. In his second start, he went 5 2/3 innings and threw 85 pitches, so he is getting stretched out. Over the course of his career, Cole has a 28.5% strikeout rate and averages 1.15 strikeouts per inning.

The Detroit Tigers are coming into the game with a 25.2% strikeout rate as a team (No. 7). As a team the Tigers also have a .117 ISO (No. 24), a .290 on-base percentage (No. 24) and have scored 28 runs total (No. 28). This is a game in which Gerrit Cole should strike out closer to his career averages than what he was doing his first two games. Additionally, this Tigers team does not pose a serious threat to Cole, and he should be able to pitch for six innings or more.

Based on his career averages, Cole would have to pitch 6 1/3 innings or more to get to seven strikeouts to reach the over on this line. With this being his third start, he should have the stamina to go that long. Additionally, this is an opponent that has one of the higher strikeout rates in baseball and does not have much of a power threat to knock Cole out of the game early.

Carlos Correa Over 1.5 Bases (+115)

Carlos Correa and the Minnesota Twins take on Carlos Hernandez and the Kansas City Royals. Hernandez has made one start and went 4 1/3 innings with an 8.31 ERA and 5.21 xFIP in that small sample size. Hernandez has an xFIP of 5.02 over the course of his career, which is not good. Additionally, Hernandez gives up a lot of hard contact with a 39.9% hard-hit rate over the course of his career.

Correa comes into this game with a .200 ISO the last two seasons against righties. This translates to averaging one extra base over the course of five at-bats. With Correa likely batting second in the order, the Twins being on the road and facing a bad starting pitcher, the chances of him getting five plate appearances are good.

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Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Tonight Yusei Kikuchi and the Toronto Blue Jays are facing the Boston Red Sox. Kikuchi is coming into the game 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA, a 6.16 xFIP and a 12.5% strikeout percentage. He threw 81 pitches in just 3 1/3 innings in one start, which happened to be against the Yankees. Those are not good numbers. Typically when someone has a high ERA in a small sample size, they have an improved xFIP in hopes that variances hit the pitcher early and they are due for some positive regression, not a higher xFIP than the high ERA. Despite the tough start to the season, over the course of his career Kikuchi has a career 4.44 xFIP, a 20.5% strikeout rate and 0.89 strikeouts per inning.

Boston is coming into the game with a team 22.5% strikeout rate (No. 17), a .157 ISO (No. 11) and a .290 on-base percentage (No. 23). They have several batters that hit lefties well over the last two seasons: Enrique Hernandez (.230 ISO, .350 wOBA), Xander Bogaerts (.150 ISO, .350 wOBA), J.D. Martinez (.180 ISO, .340 wOBA), Trevor Story (.290 ISO, .390 wOBA) and Bobby Dalbec (.270 ISO, .360 wOBA).

If Kikuchi struggled against the Yankees, a team that has many hitters that hit lefties well, there is a good chance he will struggle tonight in Fenway against the Red Sox. Kikuchi would have to make it 5 2/3 innings and strike out the Red Sox at his career strikeout rate to reach five or more strikeouts. The likelihood of him doing that is low.

Mike Zunino Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400)

Mike Zunino and the Tampa Bay Rays face the Chicago Cubs tonight. On the mound for Chicago is Justin Steele, who comes into the game with a career 4.06 xFIP and allows 1.63 HR/9 and a hard-hit rate of 35%. Zunino has a .480 ISO against lefties over the last two seasons and a .792 slugging. The only downside to this is that the wind is blowing in slightly at Wrigley and the game will be 40 degrees. The kind of power Zunino has can withstand that, though.

More HR Prop Bets Today

Aaron Judge Over 0.5 HR (+330)
Hunter Renfroe Over 0.5 HR (+410)
Bobby Dalbec Over 0.5 HR (+425)

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