The Clippers and Pelicans will play each other tonight, for the second time this season. Los Angeles took the first matchup by a five-point margin, although New Orleans didn’t have Zion Williamson in the matchup. They’ll have him tonight, and this game should be a good one. Here are the key trends and my predictions to help you find an edge on the NBA betting market.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Clippers vs. Pelicans
Clippers vs. Pelicans Game Info
Los Angeles Clippers (25-14) at New Orleans Pelicans (16-22)
Date: Sunday, Mar. 14, 2021
Start Time: 9 p.m. EST
Venue: Smoothie King Center — New Orleans, La.
Coverage: ESPN
These teams have struggled of late, as they both have gone 4-6 over their last 10 outings. Los Angeles won their first (and so far, only) game after the All-Star Break, while the Pelicans have split theirs. These teams will also have to adjust for a missing player. The Clippers won’t have Patrick Beverley, and the Pelicans remain without J.J. Redick.
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Clippers vs. Pelicans Spread Trends and Prediction: Pelicans +5.5
The trends favor the Clippers against the spread. At 21-18, they have the 11th-best record against the spread in the NBA. That’s much better than the Pelicans, as their 16-22 record against the spread ties for fourth-worst.
That said, one key trend points to value on the Pelicans. They have gone 6-2 against the spread when listed as home underdogs. That may compensate for their general struggles against the spread, especially since the Clippers are just 9-7 against the spread as road favorites.
My NBA betting model, which uses pace and efficiency data that’s weighted for rest and recent performance, also sides with the Pelicans. It favors the Clippers by only 3.9 points, a decent margin below where the sportsbooks have set this spread.
I’ll side with my model and ride New Orleans’ streak of success as home underdogs.
Clippers vs. Pelicans Total Trends and Prediction: Over 232.5
The trends point to clear value on the over. The Pelicans have the NBA’s highest over-percentage (71.0%), and the Clippers are close behind in a tie for fourth (60.5%). A whopping 81.0% of New Orleans’ home games have gone over, too, as have 60% of Los Angeles’ road games.
The Pelicans have played eight games as home underdogs. The over has cashed in on all but one of them, good for an over percentage of 87.5%. That’s below only the Lakers and Suns, who have played one and three games as home underdogs, respectively.
However, my NBA betting model doesn’t love the over. It projects these teams to combine for 222.8 points, as both teams play at a slow pace. The Clippers are the second-slowest team, and the Pelicans are the 13th-slowest.
I’ll roll the dice and bet against my model here. The trends just point to so much more value on the over that I have to take it.
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Clippers vs. Pelicans NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
I like the Pelicans plus the points tonight. Should you agree, you can find them as 5.5-point underdogs across the market, and every book has the same juice at the moment. It’s the same with the Clippers, who are 5.5-point favorites everywhere, too. However, that may change as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal.
Clippers vs. Pelicans NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
The trends point to a lot of value on the over, and you can find the lowest-set total at BetMGM. You can also add a half-point for better juice at SugarHouse (-108). Should you disagree with my read and favor the under, your FanDuel Sportsbook has the highest-set total, while PointsBet has the best juice (-105) for a half point higher. You can follow all line movement yourself directly through OddsShopper.
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