As we wade into Tuesday’s four-game NBA slate, eyeing the player prop selection on OddsShopper adds intrigue in a multitude of ways for such a short slate. While comparing value on NBA betting odds, we’ll cross-reference player stats, rotations and team trends to identify two of the best player props available for Tuesday. Tonight we’ll be focusing on Nikola Jokic and Chris Paul for our NBA betting picks.
NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | March 30
Nikola Jokic OVER 10.5 Rebounds (+115)
The Nuggets and Nikola Jokic have been making their playoff push, going 7-3 since the All-Star break and 11-3 since Feb. 27. Jokic has an intriguing matchup ahead of him, drawing a favorable assignment with the 76ers’ backup centers, Dwight Howard and Mike Scott. With the rebounding prowess of both teams in mind, Jokic’s rebounds prop of 10.5 at +115 on the over is enticing. Although the Sixers have been rebounding impressively sans Joel Embiid, the dominance of Jokic is too much to ignore.
Jokic’s MVP-caliber efforts this season have yet to be thwarted, as he is putting up 26.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 35.7 minutes per game, all career highs. Jokic’s 16.1% rebound rate has seen a slight hike since the break, averaging a 16.9% rate and 11.4 rebounds per game in his past 10 games. While the opposition makes for a difficult matchup considering Howard’s 24.3% rebound rate and 10.9 rebounds per game since All-Star weekend, Jokic has led the Nuggets to the third-fewest rebounds allowed per game. Furthermore, the Nuggets have allowed the fewest rebounds to opposing centers, at 12.5 boards per game.
Although Philadelphia is right behind Jokic and the Nuggets in rebounding, Jokic has always been able to produce, and the plus-money odds present fantastic value. Granted, the 76ers have been a top-three rebounding team since Embiid’s injury, but Jokic averaging 11.25 rebounds per 36 minutes at home is a bit too much to turn a blind eye with plus money on 11-plus rebounds.
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Chris Paul Over 1.5 Steals (+100)
Since joining the Suns, Chris Paul has led the team to second place in the Western Conference and a 31-14 record. They welcome a somewhat surprising 23-23 Hawks team to PHX Arena. While his steals per game are down slightly this season, Paul’s contribution in that category makes for excellent value on even-money odds since he needs just two to pay off.
Paul has averaged 2.2 steals for his career, though he has declined a bit, with 2.0, 1.6 and 1.4 the past three seasons. But the moment of opportunity has not seen Paul shy away, as his 31.4% steal rate this season is up significantly from last year’s 28.7% rate in about the same number of minutes. The break also served Paul well, as he has averaged 2.1 steals per game over the past 10, the NBA’s third most in that span.
On paper Atlanta may not appear to be the greatest matchup for steals, but Paul’s designated position has been their greatest weakness. Atlanta has allowed the second-fewest steals to opposing teams, with just 5.5 steals given up per game. Yet the Hawks are tied for 22nd in steals allowed to opposing point guards, with 1.9 allowed per game. With a tip of the hat to Paul’s experience, I like getting even-money odds on him to rake up two steals against the young bucks of Atlanta’s backcourt.
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