We are into Day Five of this tennis DFS week, and we’ll get to see some of the top players in the game. The fifth slate of this tennis DFS week has 8 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We have thoughts on Dominic Thiem and Roberto Bautista Agut, so let’s dive in.
Dominic Thiem (DraftKings $9,800; FanDuel N/A)
Dominic Thiem has played some excellent tennis over the last few weeks with a 9-1 record. He captured the title in Beijing, while taking down two top-10 players along the way. The world number five is in his home country this week, and the crowd has helped his level of play increase. He’s dropped just one service game this week while winning 79% of all service points. I don’t see anyone being able to stop Thiem this week, and I hope to see that intensity continue into today’s match.
Thiem will go up against Pablo Carreno Busta, the ATP world number 34 from Spain. Carreno Busta has been a man on a mission during this Asia swing with a 14-3 record. He took down the title in Chengdu last month and he hasn’t let his foot off the gas. While he’s been impressive, Carreno Busta is 0-2 against top-20 players during this run. He fell short to Thiem 7-6 6-3 in Shanghai, and I expect a similar result today.
Alex de Minaur (DraftKings $8,900; FanDuel N/A)
Alex de Minaur has been one of the most consistent hard court players in 2019, posting a 27-10 record. He’s taken down three titles on the year so far, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he added another this week. His defense is almost as good as Novak Djokovic’s, as he chases down every single ball. The young Australian is 11-3 against top-50 players this week, and I think that 12th win will come today.
de Minaur has a meeting against Jan Lennard Struff, the ATP world number 41 from Germany. Struff has not been great since the U.S. Open with a 3-4 record while losing to three players ranked outside the top 50. He heavily relies on his service game to keep him in matches, but de Minaur will be a matchup for him. Struff hasn’t dropped a service game this week, winning 82% of first serve points. I think the defense of de Minaur will prevail in this match and one break of serve just might do it.
Roberto Bautista Agut (DraftKings $8,700; FanDuel N/A)
Roberto Bautista Agut has been stellar on hard court this year with a 25-10 record. He’s reached seven quarterfinals and has just one loss against a non-top-50 player. The Spaniard has had an excellent week so far, winning 82% of first serve points while dropping just one service game. He has a favorable matchup today against a weak returner, and I think Bautista Agut will find himself in the semis.
Bautista Agut is up against Reilly Opelka, the ATP world number 37 from the U.S. The big serving American has had a solid run over the last few weeks with a 6-3 record. He’s firing down aces at a 27% rate while holding serve 95% of the time. However, his return game has been less than average to say the least. He’s winning just 9% of first serve return points and 28% of second serve return points this week. Bautista Agut took down Opelka two weeks ago in straight sets, and I think the same result will happen today.
Possible upset/value plays: Diego Schwartzman (DraftKings $7,000; FanDuel N/A)
Diego Schwartzman had a stellar outing at the U.S. Open, reaching the quarterfinals before falling to Rafael Nadal. Schwartzman is 20-11 on the hard courts in 2019, and he’s shown that he fights for every single point more than any other player. He is such a tough out for any opponent due to his great defense, and I hope to see that continue this week. Schwartzman has dropped just two service games this week, and I think that will be an advantage for his next match.
Schwartzman is up against Karen Khachanov, the ATP world number nine from Russia. Khachanov just has not been good to keep it plain and simple. He is 4-3 in his last seven matches, but his level of play has been poor. He’s faced 13 break points this week while losing five of them and winning just 67% of first serve points. His form is awful at the moment, and Schwartzman will not make it easy for him. I’m rolling with the Argentine to wear Khachanov out and possibly end this match in straight sets.
Best of luck!