Now we’re talkin’ baseball. The 13-game slate tonight is generous, with options up and down the salary spectrum both on the mound and at the plate. There are a few very appealing stacks in low-owned situations and some interesting pitcher price points both within and across sites. With the Coors Field game postponed — a game that featured the best starting pitcher on the board as well no less — a major decision point goes away right off the top. The Mets stack was the go-to option for the day, and watching where the field distributes their significant ownership will be interesting. The top end of pitching pricing is different across MLB DFS sites, with several starters at much higher price points on DraftKings and a more sturdy mid-range on FanDuel.
The main slate kicks off at 7:05 p.m. ET on both sites. The Awesemo team will be here for all of it, providing updates to tools and data throughout, including the Strategy Show, which you can find on YouTube, and Live Before Lock later in the day. Speaking of tools, if you aren’t visiting the Top Stacks Tool regularly, you’re just making your MLB DFS picks incorrectly. The Top Starters Tool is every bit as important in deciding who takes the hill for your daily fantasy baseball lineup.
[UFC261]
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home Run Ratings
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun — 7.81
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 29.54
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 12.80
Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal — 11.49
Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez — 5.76
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 8.69
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 7.49
Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario — 8.29
Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 3.81
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 19.73
Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 13.85
Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager — 13.67
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 11.59
Milwaukee Brewers: Travis Shaw — 6.97
Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz — 10.03
New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 8.42
New York Yankees: Aaron Hicks — 12.09
Oakland Athletics: Mark Canha — 8.30
Philadelphia Phillies: Didi Gregorius — 11.80
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 5.50
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 14.09
San Francisco Giants: Darin Ruf — 4.53
Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 8.32
St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 8.26
Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 10.48
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 13.55
Toronto Blue Jays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — 12.18
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 19.38
[JOINMLB+]
MLB DFS Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
(Quick note: if it says 1-5, it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5. Otherwise, I will specify spots)
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Update: Since this was written, Jacob deGrom has been taken off the board by the postponement of the Mets — Rockies game.
The pitching slate is all over the map from site to site today. The DraftKings slate has four pitchers priced over the $10,000 mark, one of whom is at a mere $7,100 on the FanDuel slate, another comes in at $9,200. The latter of the two is Walker Buehler, who makes for an interesting decision point on the DraftKings slate. With Max Scherzer rounding out that pricing tier, Buehler is among the most expensive options on the board but in a tough matchup against the Padres, who may be getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back tonight. The question becomes, does Buehler rate as well at Coors Field as Scherzer in a strong matchup for a lower salary?
Buehler is an ace by any measure. Arriving as a top-end prospect in 2018, he immediately posted a 137.1 inning season with a 3.21 xFIP and a 27.9% strikeout rate. Over the 377.2 innings for his career, Buehler is at a 3.39 xFIP, a 1.02 WHIP and a 28.3% strikeout rate. There is upside for more, but the matchup is not an easy one, particularly if San Diego’s superstar shortstop returns. The Padres’ active roster is 13th in baseball with a .189 ISO against right-handed pitching. Dating back to the start of the 2019 season, they rank 15th with a 22.9% strikeout rate and 13th with a 103 WRC+, which is somewhat revelatory in that this lineup’s true makeup is about league average in the split against right-handed pitching. This could be a sneaky-good spot to pay up to be contrarian with Buehler. He also has a very strong leverage score on DraftKings.
Jacob deGrom will be making his start at Coors Field tonight. Surprisingly, deGrom has only made two starts in Colorado in his career, putting up just 10 strikeouts and walking four hitters in his 14.1 innings. He has held hitters to a .176/.236/.314 slash in the tiny sample, but the strikeout and walk numbers are well below his expectation. Still, this is the best starter in baseball against a miserable lineup against right-handed pitching, there is explosive upside but an less than deGrom-like foundation for this one. deGrom will be highly popular despite the Coors Field game, deservedly so. The price, game environment and popularity could give some thought to the same-price pivot to Buehler for leverage, or Scherzer at a savings and significant upside in his matchup against the Diamondbacks.
Losing the Coors Field game changes the shape of the DraftKings slate significantly, with Scherzer and Buehler becoming the top two pitchers and the clear and obvious chalk. Removing deGrom will have an interesting trickle-down effect on exposures to the mid-range options, like the next featured pitcher, while Scherzer and Buehler’s public exposure should spike.
Well off of this salary tier, Oakland’s Frankie Montas stands out in his matchup against the frisky but still bad Tigers. Montas is a quality strikeout pitcher when he is going right; he has just rarely been healthy and is yet to crack the 100-inning mark in any season. He came closest in 2019, putting up 96 innings in 16 starts. That year Montas had an excellent 3.47 xFIP and 26.1% strikeout rate that season. The Tigers’ active roster ranks 27th in baseball against right-handed pitching, with a 25% strikeout rate dating to the start of the 2019 season, and their .154 team ISO ranks 28th. This is a good pitcher against a targetable team. Montas is an interesting bargain but will be excessively popular on both sites.
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Pick Advice & Strategy: Talk Directly With the World’s Best DFS Players on Discord
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (May 3)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Sonny Gray + Cardinals Bats (May 3)
- MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Under Owned Braves (May 3)
- Today’s Top MLB DFS Pitcher Pivots: George Kirby (May 3)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
BAL — 2-6 — Stewart — Santander — Mancini — Franco — Mountcastle
The Orioles are a potentially underrated option for some offensive fireworks tonight. They rank well on the Top Stacks Tool for use on both sites, with their leverage scores being the most appealing factor. The public is not getting to the Orioles bats with enough frequency given the plus-plus matchup against Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz has had a rough couple seasons. In his 2019 season, he threw 117.0 innings, putting up a bumpy 4.73 xFIP and just a 21.4% strikeout rate, which was way down from the 27.2% the year before. Concerningly, he allowed 23 home runs in that short sample, an unsustainable 1.77 HR/9. Last season, he threw just 3.1 innings, a tiny sample in which he gave up three home runs. This season he has managed to get back to health but is already at a 2.45 HR/9 mark, having given up three over 11.0 innings in his first two starts of the year. He has 10 strikeouts in that sample as well for a 22.7% rate, but the smart money is on the Orioles bats to pop in this spot.
The Orioles bring an interesting roster. Cedric Mullins provides a bit of speed off the top. In his 153 plate appearances last year, he stole seven bases and had a .315 on-base that will need improvement if he is going to stay in the leadoff role. Mullins produced runs at a 5% slower clip than the average player last year, and he lacks significant power upside. Mullins works as a play for his ability to score runs and swipe bases, but he is not an ideal way to get started, particularly not as the most expensive Orioles bat on the FanDuel slate, coming in at $3,500.
If D.J. Stewart is hitting second, he is also not one of our ideal options. Stewart managed just a .193/.355/.455 slash with seven home runs in his 112 plate appearances in 2020. There is solid power in that stat line — he had a .261 ISO in the sample — but the lack of reliability makes Stewart more of a boom-or-bust hitter that one would expect slightly later in the lineup. There is upside for a home run from Stewart here, and he will be in play as one of the low-owned Orioles bats for just $2,900 on FanDuel and $3,100 on DraftKings.
Anthony Santander is the hitter to roster from this lineup. Santander had a breakout 2020 that was cut short after just 165 plate appearances. He mashed 11 home runs, putting up a .261/.315/.575 slash with a monster .314 ISO, creating runs 31% better than the average player. Santander flashed this upside the season before, hitting 20 home runs in just 405 plate appearances in 2019, with a .216 ISO. There is plenty to love when a hitter of this talent is in a matchup this good at less than 6% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Backing up Santander in the lineup, Trey Mancini should be back in the lineup. Mancini missed all of last season, but the year before he was the Orioles’ best bat, putting up a .291/.364/.535 slash with a .244 ISO and 35 home runs in 679 plate appearances. Mancini is off to a slow start at just .163/.236/.388, but there is plenty of reason to believe in him. The matchup is fantastic, and Mancini has already shown his power, hitting three home runs in his 55 plate appearances this year.
The Orioles believe they found a bargain bat in Maikel Franco, who hit eight home runs in his 243 opportunities in 2020, a year after blasting 17 in just 428 tries in 2019. Franco hits from the right side of the plate but hits same-handed pitching better than he hits southpaws. Franco has a career .255/.303/.435 slash against righties and just a .238/.308/.421 mark against lefties. His .182 and .180 ISO marks, respectively, might as well be the same. Franco is in a good spot for power upside, and no one will be rostering him.
Ryan Mountcastle arrived last year as a highly regarded prospect and delivered for the Orioles, putting up a .333/.386/.492 triple-slash in his 140 plate appearances, hitting five home runs along the way. He did miss the anticipated power marks, putting up just a .159 ISO in that small sample, but there are no worries about the upside. Mountcastle hit 25 home runs in his 553 plate appearances in AAA ball in 2019. He should hit mid-20s home run in The Show when he fully arrives, which could be as soon as now. Mountcastle has a .220/.250/.360 slash on the year, with one home run and one stolen base in his small sample of 52 plate appearances. There are plenty of reasons to include him in Orioles stacks on both sites.
Infielder Rio Ruiz provides some salary savings and positional flexibility for a team that is loaded with the former but short on the latter. Ruiz comes in at just $2,300 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings and has multi-position eligibility on both sites. Ruiz hit nine home runs in his 204 plate appearances last season and 12 in 413 the year before. There is some upside for power, though he is very much an all-or-nothing play.
Pedro Severino and Freddy Galvis round out one of the projected lineups. Both can be mixed and matched if building multiple Orioles stacks, and Severino provides utility on catcher-requirement sites. Both have a modicum of upside as well. For just $2,100 on the blue site, Galvis is an interesting pivot option as a wraparound play given the known power in his bat. In 589 plate appearances in 2019, Galvis hit 23 home runs and blasted seven in only 159 chances last year. Severino has decent pop as well, he hit 13 home runs in his 341 chances in 2019. These are late lineup dart throws in an already affordable and low-owned lineup, however, which keeps them as simple mix-ins rather than focus plays.
HR Call: Anthony Santander — Baltimore Orioles
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more daily fantasy baseball and MLB DFS picks content? We have loads of MLB DFS picks articles, data, DraftKings & FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo MLB home page. Just click HERE.
