Friday, July 9, brings 28 teams into action on the main slate with nary an ace in sight. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Friday, July 9
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Cleveland Indians vs. RHP Brad Keller — 5.2 implied runs
Looking to the White Sox in Camden Yards against Jorge Lopez or the Red Sox hosting Vincent Velasquez are both fine spots. There is a little weather on the East Coast as Tropical Storm Elsa winds down from battering the coastline before veering east into the North Atlantic Ocean. If there are no or limited precipitation risks, then by all means look to hitters in those games.
Cleveland as a collective group of batters has been subpar against right-handed pitching this season. However, their productive hitters are easily identifiable and also generally in the top of the order, which works just fine for stacks. Through his first three seasons in the league Brad Keller was masterful at negating the power of opposing hitters. In this stretch lefties managed only 0.68 home runs per nine innings and a .100 ISO. Same-handed batsmen were even less successful, with 0.53 home runs per nine and a .102 ISO. This season Keller has allowed a .173 ISO to opposing hitters and 13 home runs in 87.1 innings. While that may not seem like many, it is in stark contrast compared to the 24 he had suffered in the 360.1 innings to start out his career.
Jose Ramirez ($22), Franmil Reyes ($22) and rookie Bobby Bradley ($17) are the trio to target. If looking to make a four-man stack, then switch-hitting leadoff man Cesar Hernandez would be the next player to include. Though, there are ($19) other second basemen in better matchups today at a lower salary.
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Evening Slate
Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Matt Manning — 5.9 implied runs
It has been a rough go so far for rookie Matt Manning, who will be making his fifth career start tonight. In his prior four he has tallied just 17 innings, a paltry six strikeouts and three home runs allowed. To be fair, with the pandemic last year, Manning saw his development stall without being able to get some experience against Triple-A competition. This year he started out with the Triple-A Toledo, and despite an 8.07 ERA in seven starts spanning 32.1 innings, Detroit promoted him to the majors. It would not be a shock to see him optioned back to the farm system for a couple starts with the All-Star Break next week.
The Twins are a solid lineup when Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson are healthy. Though they are still missing Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver and Kyle Garlick, a couple of their younger players have stepped up to fill the void. Trevor Larnach and Alec Kirilloff have bounced around the batting order filling in for injured veterans and holding their own. They are both discounted on DraftKings and FanDuel, so let personal preference be a guide. Max Kepler is also in the mix, and he has been hitting all throughout the order as well. With his power upside, if he is near Cruz or Donaldson, they can form a power trio with a harmonic boost. Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco are not particularly enticing on the main slate with their lack of power, though they are worthy of consideration for the evening contests.
Late Slate
San Diego Padres vs. LHP Kyle Freeland — 5.1 implied runs
Since the start of the 2019 season, Kyle Freeland has faced 730 right-handed batters and has had some disastrous results. In this timeframe he has posted a meager 14.7% strikeout rate while allowing a .363 wOBA and .225 ISO. The wild part is that this does not include his 8.80 ERA when he was demoted to Triple-A in the middle of the 2019 season to figure things out; he was so bad there that the club just brought him back up into the rotation. Somehow Colorado was desperate enough to bring him back on a one-year, $5 million deal, and if they were not already out of playoff picture, they likely would have already released him.
Today the core four will be the San Diego righties at the top of the order, including Tommy Pham, Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado and Wil Myers. Eric Hosmer or Jake Cronenworth can be included for differentiation since the Rockies bullpen has only one lefty, so the Padres should have the platoon advantage over the back half of the game.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP Alex Cobb at Seattle Mariners — 4.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $33 | FanDuel $8,800 | DraftKings $9,800
Just to be clear, there are no particularly safe options tonight. There are not many upside pitchers to target either, with strikeout artist Blake Snell questionable to make his start as he builds back up his strength — arm and otherwise — after dealing with an illness. That leaves Alex Cobb near the top of the list, albeit with little confidence. In his last eight starts, Cobb has held the opposition scoreless or allowed just run five times, while he has suffered at least five runs in the other three outings. Seattle strikes out at the fourth-highest rate in the league against righties this season while creating runs 11% less than league average. This has been an odd season for the Mariners, who are somehow four games above .500 while having been outscored by 50 runs.
Secondary Target: RHP Charlie Morton at Miami Marlins — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $49 | FanDuel $10,000 | DraftKings $9,600
Based on the vagaries of the schedule and the dearth of quality arms, Charlie Morton is making an appearance in this article for a second time in a week for his matchup against the Marlins. This game will be in Miami with the roof scheduled to be closed tonight. The Marlins have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching a bottom-10 walk rate while creating runs 10% less efficiently than league average. Morton offers above-average strikeouts, which combined with his ability to induce groundballs tends to mitigate big innings from his opponents. This will be his fourth time battling Miami this season. He was roughed up in two of the three outings, though he does have 19 strikeouts across 19.1 innings, and a quality start outing is in play tonight.
Wild Card: RHP Alek Manoah at Tampa Bay — 4.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $49 | FanDuel $10,300 | DraftKings $7,000
This is a DraftKings-only recommendation. While Alek Manoah is fine for FanDuel tournaments, for a main lineup, it makes sense to lean towards the stability of Cobb or Morton. On Yahoo those two, along with Kenta Maeda and Taijuan Walker, are more appealing and come with a lower salary cap hit. Tampa Bay has been in the top third of the league against right-handed pitchers this season. While they have the third-highest strikeout rate, they also have the fifth-best walk rate, seventh-highest ISO and are creating 7% more runs than league average. Though he has only faced 132 MLB hitters in his career, Manoah has a 28% strikeout rate, and at his DraftKings salary that combination makes him a viable option in all formats.
Final Thoughts for the Friday, July 9, MLB DFS Slate
This should be a wild one for tournaments with the lack of top-shelf pitching options. Of course, like with Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish both getting knocked out in the early innings last night, even aces can have bad days.
