If you were over-loaded on Mets and Cardinals last night, your MLB DFS hopes and dreams were washed away with a less-than-surprising postponement. Taking on the risk of running players from questionable games that begin around lock, or even after it, is often a way to get under-owned upside into a lineup, but it can also burn us when games cancel after their scheduled start time. There are a couple of questionable weather spots in the northeast again on Wednesday’s 10-game main slate, though only the contest in Boston appears to be in serious jeopardy. The slate features several top-end aces as well as Shohei Ohtani, who is finally listed as a hitter on both DraftKings and FanDuel on the day that he is actually pitching because DFS is fun like that. The rest of the pitching slate is relatively targetable, meaning there could be another big-upside day for bats.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home Run Ratings
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Ozzie Albies — 10.05
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 14.56
Chicago Cubs: Kris Bryant — 11.06
Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 8.35
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera — 6.36
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 13.06
Kansas City Royals: Ryan O’Hearn — 4.14
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 11.53
Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager — 3.50
Milwaukee Brewers: Travis Shaw — 18.29
Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 12.92
New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez — 5.66
Oakland Athletics: Mark Canha — 11.10
Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 4.61
Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran — 3.15
San Diego Padres: Trent Grisham — 6.25
Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 11.16
Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 12.81
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 5.65
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 6.48
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
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MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The Wednesday MLB DFS slate puts three premium pitchers in prime matchups. Cleveland’s Shane Bieber is taking on the Royals, San Diego’s Yu Darvish faces the Pirates, and the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler takes on the toughest opponent of the trio in his matchup against the Cubs. All three aces are returning good projections in my personal model, while Freddy Peralta of the Brewers joins the group near the top of Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool.
Of the group, Darvish likely has the best overall matchup. While the Pirates are good at limiting strikeouts — the active roster is second in the league against right-handed pitching so far this year with a 21.0% strikeout rate — they are lacking in power and run production. The Pirates have just a .128 team ISO and create runs 12% worse than average against right-handed pitching so far this season. Those numbers are consistent back to the start of the 2019 season. Pittsburgh’s .142 ISO is fourth-worst in the league in the split. Darvish is an elite strikeout artist. He has fanned 32.9% of hitters so far this season, up from the 31.3% he put up in both a 76-inning 2020 and a 178-inning 2019. Darvish is pricey on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he is well worth the investment.
The Royals lineup facing Bieber is similarly good at limiting strikeouts. The active roster has a 22.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, sixth-best in the league. The Royals have been better in the power and run creation departments, which creates the separation in matchups between the two aces. Kansas City has a .171 team ISO and has created runs 4% better than average so far this season against right-handed pitchers. Of course, not all righties are created equally. Bieber has struck out a dominant 39.5% of hitters so far in his 42 innings this year. In 77 frames last season, he was at a whopping 41.1%, so the number is by no means out of thin air. This is one of the game’s best starting pitchers; he is priced like it at $12,200 on FanDuel and $10,400 on DraftKings, but it makes plenty of sense to get to him frequently tonight.
Buehler is perhaps a rung down from the other two starters in terms of his performance so far this season and the matchup he has in store tonight. He is an elite talent, but his strikeout rate has dropped to a 25.4% mark, though he has walked just 1.6% of hitters and has an excellent 0.96 WHIP. He has also allowed a league-worst 44.3% hard contact rate so far this year, leading to some big power numbers for the opposing Cubs in today’s home run model. Buehler is less expensive than his counterparts at the top of the board, making him interesting despite the matchup against a powerful Cubs lineup. Chicago has a .174 team ISO against right-handed pitching so far this season, though they have created runs 6% worse than average and strike out at a sixth-worst rate of 26.7% in the split this year. Buehler has the talent to get through the tougher hitters in this lineup and there is significant strikeout upside. If his ownership projections slip he gains appeal on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Peralta makes for an interesting case at a $9,000 salary on FanDuel and a $9,500 mark on DraftKings. Rostering him alongside one of the other premium arms becomes an exercise in low-end stack building once the bats come into play, but Peralta is still the least proven among the top starters. He has dominated the 28 innings he has thrown this year, putting up a 40.2% strikeout rate. He was at 37.6% across 29 innings last season and 30.1% in 85 innings the year before. The increase this year comes despite a reduction from a 15.7% to a 14.7% swinging strike rate so far. Peralta has talent, but he also puts too many hitters on base. This season he has walked 12.5% of hitters, but has been bailed out by the amazing strikeout rate and an extremely pitcher-friendly .229 batting average on balls in play against. There is potential for some regression in terms of the runs Peralta has yielded, though his 3.31 xFIP is strong so far. He is in a good spot, taking on a Phillies lineup that has struck out 26.0% of the time in the split this season, eighth worst in baseball, while putting up just a .140 ISO and creating runs 17% below average.
Oakland’s Chris Bassitt is off to a strong start this season, building momentum as a full-time starter since 2019. That season, Bassitt threw 144.0 innings, putting up a 4.61 xFIP and a 23.0% strikeout rate. In 2020 Bassitt struck out 21.1% of hitters but lowered his xFIP to 4.49 over 63.0 innings in 11 starts. This season, Bassitt has spiked his swinging strike rate, leaping from 8.9% two years ago and 9.9% last season all the way to 12.1% this year, with a 28.2% CSW% (called plus swinging strike percentage). Bassitt is known for his curveball, but it is the utilization of an upgraded slider that has made the difference so far this season. The ability to throw breaking balls to both sides of the plate has helped Bassitt baffle batters this season, leading to a 24.2% strikeout rate. He has improved his xFIP to a 3.99 mark in 34 innings so far and stands out as one of the better potential leverage plays on the board. He will be taking on a tough Toronto team that strikes out a league-average 23.4% of the time against righties, while putting up a .157 team ISO and creating runs 6% below average so far in the split. This is not a standout spot, but Bassitt could surprise the bulk of the field with a solid outing at low ownership tonight.
HOU — 1-3-4-5-6 — Altuve — Bregman — Alvarez — Gurriel — Correa
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/05/2021″ team=”yankees”]
The Astros are in the Bronx again tonight, playing in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and taking on lefty starter Jordan Montgomery. He has come back to the team returned to full health this season and he has had a productive start, though he is not a frequent MLB DFS option. Montgomery has a 22.0% strikeout rate to go with a 4.02 xFIP and a 1.09 WHIP so far this season, though he has benefited from a .229 BABIP against. He sits in the 40th percentile in barrel rate and just the 35th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, while giving up a 37.3% hard contact rate that sits 19th-worst among pitchers with at least 20 innings this season.
The Astros active roster has made a habit of obliterating left-handed pitching. Dating back to the start of the 2019 season, Houston is the best in baseball with a 17.9% strikeout rate in the split. The second-ranked Royals have struck out 20.4% of the time in the sample, which is a dramatic difference in this statistic. The excellent Astros roster has a .201 team ISO that ranks sixth in the sample and they have created runs 18% better than average, second best in baseball over the period. This year the team has an 18.6% strikeout rate in the split, though they have hit for limited power, with just a .131 ISO. They have still created runs 8% better than average despite the power outage, and that could be corrected in a hurry with the sluggers in this lineup.
Leadoff man Jose Altuve is a career .310/.360/.457 hitter. He has struggled since the end of 2019, recording just a .219/.286/.344 slash in his 210 plate appearances last year and only a .247/.291/.338 this season. Altuve has suffered from a low BABIP in the sample. He was at .250 last year and .273 this season after spending most of his career well over .300 as one of the better base-hit options in the game. While there is not much of a discount for the recent quality, there is significant track record to believe in here. Altuve is an excellent option leading off for this team on both sites.
Outfielder Michael Brantley has a career .165 ISO with a .308/.365/.473 slash against righties for his career and a .101 ISO with a .275/.331/.376 against fellow lefties. His run creation drops from 28% above to 5% below average when facing a southpaw across his career, but if he is hitting second, there is enough left in the triple-slash and on-base skill, despite the lack of power upside, that a low-owned Brantley can be rostered in some shares of Astros stacks.
Alex Bregman has hit five home runs in 96 plate appearances so far this season. He has a .295/.354/.489 slash and has created runs 40% better than average. He is striking out slightly more than usual so far, with his rate up to 17.7% from the 14.4% he posted in 2020 and the 12.0% he was at in years prior. Bregman has room for additional upside beyond the solid numbers he has given MLB DFS owners this season, a fact not reflected in his $4,800 price on DraftKings or $3,800 on FanDuel.
Another player currently disrespected by the pricing algorithm on both sites is Yordan Alvarez, only one of the best bats in the game. Alvarez has hit three home runs in his 93 plate appearances this year after missing the first week-plus of the season. He has a .226 ISO and a .321/.366/.548 slash while creating runs 57% better than average. He missed most of 2020 with an injury but he hit 27 home runs in just 369 opportunities in his debut in 2019. For the full 2019 sample, at least consider the additional 23 home runs he hit in 253 plate appearances at AAA that year. Alvarez is commonly regarded as one of the most likely to claim the mantle of best hitter in baseball, whenever Mike Trout is willing to give it up. He is dramatically underpriced at just $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel. Alvarez loses little against lefties. For his brief career he has a ridiculous .325 ISO against right-handed pitchers and a .308 mark against lefties. He has a .313/.412/.638 against the opposite hand, .314/.385/.623 against same-handed pitchers. Alvarez actually strikes out far less against the same hand, just a 22.5% rate compared to the 26.3% at which he whiffs against righties, though he does walk 13.8% of the time on the other side of the split and just 8.8% against lefties. This is a strong option for a home run or at least a big fantasy point score despite the same-handed matchup.
Yuli Gurriel has cooled from his inferno of a start but still sits at .333/.424/.529 over 118 plate appearances. He has hit four home runs and posted a .196 ISO while creating runs 77% better than average so far this year, excellent numbers across the board. He packs a stellar 11.9% strikeout rate, which is directly in-line with the 11.7% he put up in 2020 and the 10.6% from 2019. Gurriel has boosted his walk rate from 5.2% last year all the way to 13.6% this season. This is an under-appreciated hitter for both MLB DFS and real baseball.
Carlos Correa costs $5,100 on the DraftKings slate but just $3,200 on FanDuel. He slots in as a strong pick from later in the lineup at a premium position. He has a .273/.325/.445 slash to start the season and has put up just a .173 ISO but is creating runs 22% better than average and has four home runs in his 120 plate appearances. Correa has cut his strikeout rate from 22.2% last year and 23.4% the year before all the way to 16.7% so far, which would be a dramatic improvement for a hitter who is still only 26 years old. Correa catches too much flack for a decline, which has largely been brought about by injuries over the past few seasons. When he is in the roster there is still plenty of upside in the bat, this is the same hitter who blasted 21 home runs in just 321 plate appearances with a .289 ISO in 2019.
Kyle Tucker may or may not be in the lineup. He does not do as well as his teammate Alvarez in the split against same-handed pitching. For his young career, Tucker has a .224 ISO against righties and just a .169 mark against lefties. The on-base percentage drops precipitously from an already-low .301 to .272 despite a decreased strikeout rate, which moves from 23.1% against the opposite hand to 16.6% against southpaws. Tucker’s run creation drops from 6% above to 18% below average in the split, and the Astros skip him for a better platoon option at times. This year, Tucker has faced lefties 53 times and has just a .085 ISO with a .149/.189/.234 slash.
Speedster Myles Straw is interesting as a wraparound option from the bottom of the lineup, though he has just a .296 on-base percentage this season, limiting the degree to which he can help with his legs. Straw does have five stolen bases already on the season, flashing the upside potential, but he will have to dramatically improve his ability to get on ahead of key hitters to gain much relevance. As a low-owned low-cost low-volume play, he is marginally acceptable for MLB DFS purposes.
Catcher Martin Maldonado would typically be in the lineup against a southpaw, but he was knocked around in a collision with Rougned Odor at the plate last night and could sit in favor of lefty Jason Castro despite the poor platoon matchup. Castro is just a .194/.263/.292 hitter in the split and would be highly skippable. If Maldonado plays, he not much of an option either. He has just a .091/.167/.136 slash to start 2021.
HR Call: Travis Shaw — Milwaukee Brewers
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