The Saturday NBA DFS slate spreads out a bit with 10 games and a wide variety of options on the board for NBA DFS gamers. The slate includes an early game with a massive 239.5 total between the Hornets and Grizzlies that should draw significant attention. The Hornets are likely to be an extremely popular option across the industry, they have been a prime target in their last several outings and the team delivered a major performance in scoring 141 points against the lowly Pistons just last night. With a few players from the rotation delivering in optimal lineups last night now appearing in the second game of a back-to-back, there is some question about a more conservative approach to minutes and the potential for the top players to all reach their ceiling scores once again is in question, but the Hornets have work to do with the Grizzlies favored by five, supporting the notion that they can be an optimal play again. The rest of the board includes six more games that are totaled in the mid-220s, leaving plenty of NBA DFS point-scoring potential across the league. Getting to a variety of combinations of players who have high boom score probabilities and positive leverage in tournaments on both DraftKings and FanDuel will be a priority tonight. With a number of quality examples in that category, the need to go to an extreme to get to lower-owned plays is less on a slate of this size, there are excellent options from a variety of price points who are not drawing the popularity they deserve, making this an ideal tournament slate.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With 10 games on the slate, this article will focus on a variety of the top plays with positive leverage on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Aleksej Pokusevski: DraftKings $3,800 — SF/PF | FanDuel $5,400 — PF
The Thunder will be in Chicago to take on the Bulls this evening and they will once again be without a handful of players including big men Mike Muscala and James Robinson-Earl, as well as star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The frontcourt absences will create the potential for Aleksej Pokusevski to receive major minutes once again. Pokusevski saw 30 minutes in each of the team’s two most recent contests, the second night’s playing time allocation coming in spite of the return of Isaiah Roby for 12 minutes in the game. Pokusevski offers significant potential for fantasy point production at his price on one site and he is at best a mix-in option on the other, but he is at least in play industrywide with a 27.7-minute projection. The forward has posted a solid 0.88 fantasy points per minute rate on average this season and he has jumped to a 1.08 mark in the team’s two most recent games. Pokusevski has just a 46% true shooting percentage for the season, but he contributes in multiple categories, checking in with an 11.6% assist percentage and 11.9% rebounding share. The forward put up 24.7 FanDuel points in 30 minutes in the team’s most recent outing, but the blue site has him priced at an unfavorable mark for this slate, limiting his utility on that site.
At just $3,800 with utility across both forward positions on DraftKings, Pokusevski is one of the top options at any position. The cheap forward checks in with a 21.3% optimal lineup appearance rate, tying him for second at any position with fellow forward bargain Deni Avdija, creating a cheap tandem that can be rostered together. Between the two, Pokusevski seems like the better option as he is drawing just a 16.7% ownership projection to his Washington counterpart’s 26.6% mark. that leaves the similarly projected Thunder forward at a far more appealing 4.6 leverage score, one of the better marks at any position on the DraftKings slate tonight. Pokusevski is projected for a 24.8-point median night, 1.1 fantasy points behind the mark at which Awesemo is projecting the more expensive Avdija in nearly two more minutes of projected playing time. The Thunder forward trails slightly with a 37.77% boom score percentage compared to the Wizards’ option that lands at 38.93%, but the popularity is the true difference-maker on the play, Avdija is a -5.3 leverage play for more money at the same position. While playing both forwards is perfectly viable, even advisable, the better option when deciding between the two is Pokusevski purely as an ownership and value move.
On the FanDuel slate, there is no comparing the two options. Avdija lands at a 22.6% optimal lineup appearance rate and he is the stronger play despite a -14.3 leverage score on the blue site. The cheap Wizards player comes in at just a $4,300 price tag and he has eligibility at both forward positions on the site, negating any concern about his 0.82 fantasy points per minute rate across all situations this season. Avdija is in a prime position to see more opportunities in the new Wizards structure, he played 32 minutes in the team’s most recent outing, putting up a cheap 25.3 FanDuel point performance. By comparison, Pokusevski lands in the optimal lineup in just 4.8% of simulated slates for the blue site because he costs a whopping $5,400 and is eligible at only power forward on the FanDuel slate. The field will not be including the Thunder forward in any of their builds, he is carrying just a 0.3% public popularity projection which does leave a drop of utility to be squeezed from the far less juicy play on this site. Pokusevski has an 8.2% boom score probability and a 24.07-point median projection on the site, there is a clear lack of tournament-altering upside at his price, even the 4.5 leverage score does not justify much more than the infrequent dart throw play. Getting to around the public’s 36.9% ownership projection on Avdija seems like the more advisable path with lineup shares at the forward spot, but there are a number of better pivot points at both forward positions than Pokusevski or the popular Washington play. Options including Avdija’s current teammate Kyle Kuzma, his former teammate Montrezl Harrell who lands on the board as an excellent cheap option for low popularity in his new role in Charlotte, and Nets backup Day’Ron Sharpe, among others, all stand as better options for optimal lineup rate and leverage on the blue site tonight.
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Facundo Campazzo: DraftKings $3,000 — PG | FanDuel $3,500 — PG
No, this is not a remnant from yesterday’s column, this play was featured in this space 24 hours ago and Facundo Campazzo delivered, despite falling in behind Bones Hyland in the point guard pecking order going into the game. Those who stuck with Campazzo on the FanDuel slate were rewarded with a player who delivered 27.3 FanDuel points in 29 minutes of playing time for the minimum salary at 0.6% ownership in the large-field tournament, the situation was much the same with the guard on DraftKings. With neither site changing Campazzo’s minimum price going into tonight’s game and with the guard coming in at a 25.1-minute projection in very much the same situation, he looks like an excellent play that the field is ignoring once again. Campazzo will still be sharing the backcourt responsibility with Hyland as well as Austin Rivers, but the minimum-price option is currently leading the way in playing time projection, productivity, and probability in Awesemo’s afternoon projections.
On the FanDuel slate, Campazzo lands at a 14.1% optimal lineup appearance rate in early simulations. The Denver guard is projected for just a 20.05-point median score in his 25.1 minutes, but at a $3,500 salary, he has more than enough utility given what he helps afford in other positions on the site. Campazzo is the 13th-most frequently optimal player at any position and he lands third among eligible point guards, falling in behind only stars LaMelo Ball and Dejounte Murray. With Murray carrying shooting guard eligibility on the blue site, it is easy to combine the trio of frequently optimal guards while leaving salary for a third star-caliber player. Campazzo has a 20.21% boom score probability at his minimum salary on the FanDuel slate, making the upside available on the play clear, if he racks up more minutes than projected again he could easily post a 30-point night on the slate. Campazzo is projected for just a 12.4% ownership share, leaving him with a targetable 1.7 leverage score as a quality mix-in option that helps differentiate lineup constructions. With the flexibility available among the top point guard options on the blue site, there is good reason to get to Campazzo. An easy build among the most frequently optimal players on the blue site that utilizes the Denver point guard along with both Murray and Ball can easily also include top play Joel Embiid at the center spot, for example. The Heat are offering up Kyle Lowry at an extremely appealing price on this slate as well, he should not be forgotten in creating point guard rotations for the blue site, there is more than enough room for including him and a variety of other options in a mix of high-quality FanDuel plays when exploiting Campazzo’s low cost.
With essentially the same pricing structure on DraftKings, Campazzo lands in the optimal lineup 15.5% of the time in simulated slates. At that rate, the Denver point guard is the seventh-most frequently optimal player at any position on the site in current projections. Campazzo falls in behind other cheap options who can be rostered at the flex-guard position, including Devin Vassell and Corey Kispert. Both of those players are shooting guard or small forward options, while Campazzo checks in as a point guard play, and with respective $4,200 and $3,300 price tags, both players are also more expensive than the Denver guard. Campazzo has a 20-point median projection and a 29.8% boom score probability on the site, but he is projected for just 14.1% ownership. That rate of popularity leaves a 1.4 leverage score on Campazzo, while Vassell comes in at a -16.5 mark and Kispert is a -9.0 play. With both of those options still carrying utility in other lineup positions, they will be included alongside Campazzo in numerous constructions. The cheap and unpopular Denver point guard is an excellent way to create immediate lineup differentiation when rostering some of the far chalkier values on the slate.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are splashed all over the top of the Boom/Bust Tool today with numerous value options available at a variety of positions. The team will be operating without newly acquired big man Kristaps Porzingis as well as center Daniel Gafford, and they sent out several rotation pieces at the deadline. The opportunities created by the absence of what was once the team’s rotation cannot be overstated on this slate. All of Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma, Rui Hachimura, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Raul Neto are pulling in better than 10% optimal lineup appearance rates on the FanDuel slate, with Neto’s 9.2% mark on DraftKings representing the only one who slips below that threshold when switching sites. The Wizards are a clear source of value in lineup constructions, among players on that list only Kuzma at $7,700 on FanDuel and $7,900 on DraftKings comes in at more than even a $5,000 price tag. Most of the Wizards are in the $3,000 to $4,000 range on DraftKings and $3,500 to $4,500 range on FanDuel, finding the right mix of options seems like a critical inflection point on this slate.
On the DraftKings board, Avdija checks in with the best optimal lineup rate and boom score probability at 21.3% and 38.93% respectively. He will be owned by 26.6% of the field, which puts him at a negative leverage mark. All of the Wizards are currently projected as negatively leveraged plays, however, and Avdija’s mark stands as one of the more favorable on the team on this site, making his $4,000 salary and positional flexibility a prime target. Behind him on the DraftKings board, Kispert checks in with a 17.5% optimal rate but a -9.0 leverage score for his extremely cheap $3,300 salary. At that price the leverage and 26.5% popularity can safely be ignored, it is more about what Kispert’s value buys in other lineup spots at that point. Kuzma’s high salary barely slows him down, he has a 36-minute projection and a team-leading 41.3-point median projected DraftKings score, his salary is likely too cheap for his potential upside and he has a 32.02% boom score probability but just 20.9% ownership on the slate. Hachimura and Caldwell-Pope check in with 11.4% and 11.2% optimal lineup rates as inexpensive mix and match options across power forward, shooting guard, and small forward between the two, while Neto is carrying a 27-minute playing time projection but just a 23.5-point median score with his 20.12% boom score probability at point guard and shooting guard. Any combination of Wizards players will be popular on the site, but getting to a solid blend of them in combination with other previously covered plays and a mix of star-caliber upside is both easy and worthwhile on this slate.
On FanDuel, the top two Wizards come in as highly optimal plays, with Avdija landing in the optimal lineup in 22.6% of simulated slates and Kuzma checking in at a 22.1% clip. The other players fall closer to a 10% optimal rate than they do a 20% mark, setting the top players apart somewhat on the board. Both Avdija and Kuzma will be extremely popular on the FanDuel slate, Avdija comes in as a -14.3 leverage play while Kuzma is at a -7.4 mark. Both players can be rostered, but differentiation in other lineup spots will be critical. One place that will not provide that popularity offset is Caldwell-Pope, who costs just $4,300 and lands in the optimal lineup in 11.2% of simulated slates, but is currently slated for a far-too-high 31.3% ownership projection. The player is neither that probable nor that necessary for lineup constructions, he can be safely undercut while still including him in some FanDuel builds, a rate more in line with his 11.2% optimal lineup mark would be much more appropriate. Hachimura and Kispert are both better options to offset popularity. While technical also at negative leverage, Kispert will be owned by just 14.7% of the field and Hachimura will be in only 20% of lineups as things currently stand. Neto is a less appealing option for $4,500 with just point guard eligibility on the FanDuel slate, he lands in the optimal lineup in 10.8% of simulations and he has a 15.58% boom score probability against his 23.1-point median projection, but with 23.7% of the field getting to him and either premium plays like Ball or more extreme values like Campazzo demanding point guard shares, there is simply less room for a negatively leveraged Neto on the FanDuel slate. Avdija, Kispert, Kuzma, and Hachimura have the value, upside, leverage, and positioning necessary to contribute to successful lineup creation on the FanDuel slate tonight.
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