NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

After a record-setting NBA Wednesday that saw triple-doubles from all over, there is a steady looking six-game daily fantasy basketball slate on our hands tonight. The board is loaded with quality options once again, including several star names and a few less-comfortable value plays from the mid-range. With six games, we’ll be focused on a few of the top optimal-lineup plays on the board then take a look at one or two less frequently owned options. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Alec Burks — New York Knicks

DraftKings — $4,900 — SF | FanDuel — $4,500 — SG

The Knicks will be short-handed once again with several of their primary ball handlers sitting out Thursday night’s contest against the Magic. Immanuel Quickley will join most of his point guard teammates in street clothes tonight, leaving Burks and Frank Ntilikina as two of their primary options to run the offense. Burks is by far the better offensive player of the two, and the Knicks have shown faith in him throughout the season. Both players will benefit from working in tandem with Julius Randle, whose excellent passing abilities will be a catalyst for the offense once again. It is Burks who we want for daily fantasy basketball purposes tonight. Through this season, with all of Quickley, Derrick Rose, Elfrid Payton and Austin Rivers off the floor, Burks has 1.18 fantasy points per minute, significantly up from his 0.86 mark across all situations this year.

On FanDuel Burks ranks as the eighth-highest-rated player in optimal-lineup rate on the slate. He lands in the optimal lineup 25.7% of the time, third among shooting guards on the site. Burks is an inexpensive option and presses up against a likely ceiling with his 49.5% boom-score probability. He will be popular, but not popular enough. The public is leaving shares of Burks on the table, and he has a 2.5 leverage score on the blue site.

On DraftKings Burks is the top play overall on the entire slate based on Awesemo’s optimal-lineup rate metric, in which he ranks with a 37.4% share. Burks is a small forward on the site, which changes his utility and makes him even more valuable on this site than in the competition’s slate. Burks has a 35.0% boom-score probability, second overall on the entire slate to only $4,300 Moses Brown. Burks is in a terrific spot to provide upside, the public will be on him but they are still falling short, leaving a healthy 4.6 leverage score on the play. Rostering Burks beyond the field’s currently projected number would be an advisable play on both sites.

Moses Brown — Oklahoma City Thunder

DraftKings — $4,300 — C | FanDuel — $4,400 — C

The Thunder have been a frequent source of value all season, tonight’s slate is no different. With both Al Horford and Darius Bazley sitting out again, Brown should have plenty of opportunity in the frontcourt. Awesemo has him projected for 23.7 minutes tonight, more than ample time for him to produce a quality game at his current 1.41 fantasy points per minute. In the team’s most recent game, Brown played the same role, seeing 29.8 minutes and 23.4% usage. He put up a monster fantasy game, going 9-for-16 from the field for 20 real-life points, 16 rebounds and 5 blocked shots in a game that saw him foul out. There is significant upside for the price.

Brown has the highest boom-score probability on the DraftKings slate, at 35.0%. He leads all centers with a 30.1% optimal-lineup rate, making him one of the top plays on the board. His optimal-lineup rate ranks third overall behind only Burks and Randle. Brown lands in far too few of the public’s lineups; he has a gigantic 11.9 leverage score that we do not see frequently on a play that has this strong a mark in every other category.

On FanDuel Brown ranks 16th overall, with his 18.4% optimal-lineup rate, though that ranks him as the top overall center available on the slate. At just $4,400, Brown ranks as the slate leader in boom-score probability, coming in with a 50.1% mark. He looks like an excellent play on the site despite the singular center requirement. Brown has a 10.0 leverage score that is also atop the board. He is simply one of the best available plays for daily fantasy basketball purposes, and the public is not getting to him enough.

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Joe Ingles — Utah Jazz

DraftKings — $5,200 — SG/SF / FanDuel — $4,400 — SG

The Jazz will be without Mike Conley, who is sitting out for a rest day on Thursday. In that situation, Ingles typically sees the lion’s share of the team’s ball-handling duties and sees a minor uptick in his assist share. He also has seen a boost in his fantasy points per minute over the course of the year. There is ample room for upside in his salary, which was likely already too low. With the enhanced role, Ingles stands out as a high-quality discount play.

On DraftKings Ingles is the fourth-ranked player at any position, with his 28.5% optimal-lineup rate. Ingles is flexible between the shooting guard and small forward spots, creating significant utility in addition to his value. He will be popular and is more expensive than on FanDuel, but he outpaces both of those concerns with the probability that he will hit a ceiling score we will need given the 24.7% boom-score probability and 1.7 leverage score. Ingles looks like a strong consideration for significant shares between both positions.

The FanDuel slate is less kind to Ingles, but he retains significant value. He costs just $4,400 on the blue site, and he appears in the optimal lineup in 21.2% of simulations. With a 42.7% boom-score probability suggesting significant upside, we can easily leverage up on the 0.20 mark the public has left for us. They will be slightly under-exposed to the Ingles play tonight.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/15/2021″ team=”pistons”]

Mikal Bridges — Phoenix Suns

DraftKings — $5,200 — SG/SF / FanDuel — $4,900 — SF

Bridges slots into tonight’s slate as a quality mid-range play who has utility across both sites. Bridges averages 0.83 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season and is projected for a 32.2-minute night. He is slightly underpriced on the daily fantasy basketball slate. Bridges averages 13.6 real-life points per game, requiring just 15.2% of the team’s usage to get there. He adds a 16.8% rebounding rate and a 12.0% assist share. Bridges kicks in 1.6 stocks per game to pad his stats slightly as well, adding to his appeal for the money.

On DraftKings Bridges appears in the optimal lineup in 15.0% of Awesemo’s simulations, ranking 14th overall on the slate. He has a relatively strong 16.0% boom-score probability and will be owned at around the appropriate rate by the field. As one of the strongest options in his salary tier, Bridges will be a relevant play on tonight’s slate despite not exploding off the rankings page.

On the blue site, Bridges ranks as the 15th-best play, with his 20.4% optimal-lineup rate. He slots in as the fourth-best bet at his position while also being the most affordable option. Bridges will be relevant across sites; he has a strong 32.6% boom-score probability on FanDuel given his low $4,900 salary. The public will be around the right mark on him. He has a -0.4 leverage score for the slate but appears to be in a position where we can safely meet or even exceed the field.

Chris Paul — Phoenix Suns

DraftKings — $7,700 — PG / FanDuel — $6,900 — PG

Consider this just a brief mention that Paul is underpriced on the FanDuel slate. The public has noticed, and he has a -2.3 leverage score that will probably push further into negative territory for the night, but he has 1.16 fantasy points per minute on the season and a 35.2% boom-score probability. He stands out as the top point guard play on a slate with several superstar options.

On DraftKings Paul ranks more as an als0-ran given the far more appropriate $7,700 salary against the lower cap. Paul has just a 13.7% optimal-lineup rate and 13.8% boom-score probability. He can safely be mixed into a small share of lineups, but undercutting the field’s projected 14.8% ownership could be a good plan.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.