NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

Midweek daily fantasy basketball is here, and we have a robust nine-game slate to enjoy. The basketball scheduling gods have gifted us several games that look to have strong scoring potential, and because it is this season, we have loads of value to work with once again. Getting to the right stars and scrubs has been the key to many slates this year, and paying attention to the last-minute news before — and after — the slate locks can be critical. With nine games, we’ll be looking at some of the best plays from each salary tier with frequent appearances in the optimal lineup in simulations. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

San Antonio Spurs

We’ll get out of the gate with some of the slate’s extreme values early today. The Spurs are taking on the Thunder while shorthanded, with a significant portion of the team’s rotation stuck in the NBA COVID-19 medical protocol. The Spurs will be without all of: Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Devin Vassell, Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan. LaMarcus Aldridge has been out and is questionable to return. The situation creates several very strong values on the San Antonio side.

The obvious name from the top of the list is point guard Dejounte Murray, who pops up at $7,500 on FanDuel and $7,400 on DraftKings. With a shaky Aldridge — if he plays — Murray is the lone high-end player on the court this season and will be asked to do a lot. He already averages 1.14 fantasy points per minute across all situations this year, up from his 1.09 last season, and is underpriced for the opportunity. Murray lands with a 45.6% optimal-lineup rate on FanDuel and 48.7% on DraftKings. He has a strong positive leverage score on both sites in the mid-afternoon, making him an incredibly appealing play across the DFS industry.

Fellow guard Patty Mills joins Murray atop the board. Mills is a frequent value contributor from the Spurs bench, producing upside fantasy scores for the money when called upon. At just $4,300 on DraftKings and a paltry $3,800 on the blue site, he is one of the slate’s best values. Mills has a ridiculous 76.4% boom-score probability for FanDuel players to exploit, and he is somehow under-owned despite appearing in the optimal lineup in almost half of all simulations for the site. On DraftKings Mills picks up shooting guard eligibility and smashes through the “almost” in that previous sentence; he is in the optimal lineup in 52.2% of all DraftKings simulations. Mills is not popular enough on this site either, and his salary on both is such that he can be played alongside Murray with ease.

Lonnie Walker is a minimum-price shooting guard option on the FanDuel slate and costs just $3,700 on DraftKings. His 0.69 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season are unappealing at best, but there is simply a void of usage that someone has to fill, Walker is one of the safer bets, and he costs nothing. Given the flexibility of position on DraftKings, Walker has slightly more utility in those contests, he comes up optimal in 47.8% of simulations and has a 57.1% boom-score probability, though he will be more popular than his teammates and has just a -1.9 leverage score. On FanDuel Walker is at just 39.5% optimal and has a -7.3 leverage score. He is the far more popular play between the trio of guards despite being the least productive by far in fantasy point production. I am happy to look to his teammates, though process will push some of Walker into my lineups, as he remains a strong optimal lineup probability.

If Aldridge plays, we can expect somewhat limited run, likely in the 24- to 26-minute range despite the short-handed squad. Aldridge produces 0.94 fantasy point per minute for the season and would see increased usage in the situation, but his exact impact and conditioning are question marks, and we would be buying into the first night back for a player who was already dramatically underperforming his career trends. Aldridge comes up in the optimal lineup in 10.7% of FanDuel simulations, and just 7.7% of DraftKings; he is a mix-and-match at most.

Trey Lyles is very much in play on DraftKings and almost completely off the board on the blue site. Lyles costs just $3,200 in DraftKings lineups and can be rostered at both the center and power forward spots. He picks up a boom-score probability of 23.1% and has a 15.6% optimal-lineup rate, but he will be owned in nearly a third of the public’s lineups. His -17.5 leverage score suggests that the public is getting here too frequently. With the extreme values among San Antonio point guards and the nearly 30-percentage-point delta in how frequently they are a part of the optimal lineup — while pulling far less ownership — it makes sense to avoid Lyles despite the appealing price tag.

Victor Oladipo — Houston Rockets

DraftKings — $7,600 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $7,400 — SG

I am injecting a bit of optimism about Oladipo’s ability to return from his injury while playing the pessimistic card on teammate Eric Gordon‘s ability to go tonight. If neither Gordon nor Oladipo play, obvious inexpensive values like Danuel House will bubble to the surface, but we should clearly root for the more productive Oladipo at low ownership. Averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute, Oladipo would be playing alongside John Wall and not much else, and he will soak up a significant share of the usage and assist percentage while he is on the floor.

On FanDuel, with a 31.6-minute projection, Oladipo looks like a strong play, coming up in the optimal lineup in 12.1% of simulated slates, 20th overall and fifth (if we remove Gordon) among shooting guards. Presumably this will also go up if Gordon is removed in future simulations. Oladipo has a 22.1% boom-score probability and is underpriced for the potential upside. By far the most appealing aspect of the play is getting to a player of this caliber while also pulling in a 10.4 leverage score. The public is simply not on Oladipo at this point in the day.

On DraftKings the play is similar in terms of his leverage score. Oladipo is in under 1% of public lineups while coming up in the optimal lineup in more than 8.5% of simulations, creating an imbalance. He does not stand out to the same degree as on FanDuel, however, and has just a 13.0% boom-score probability. Oladipo still makes for a sneaky play and can be rostered at the point guard spot, but with a much higher relative salary, he is a more difficult ask on DraftKings tonight. Oladipo is probably just a mix-and-match option on whom it will be incredibly easy to triple the field’s exposure.

LeBron James — Los Angeles Lakers — Summary entry:

DraftKings — $10,900 — PG/SF — Correctly Priced and Owned

FanDuel — $10,400 — SF — Underpriced and Under-owned

I don’t feel like we need to dwell on this one for the fourth or fifth time in a week. Play LeBron with enthusiasm on FanDuel, roster him as a moveable piece on DraftKings.

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Jayson Tatum — Boston Celtics

DraftKings — $9,200 — SF/PF / FanDuel — $9,400 — PF

The Celtics young star looks like a great play on both sites tonight from the mid-range of top caliber players on the board. Tatum has put up a strong season of fantasy basketball production, averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute in all situations. The Celtics have had numerous configurations of their team on the floor as they deal with a litany of injuries and COVID absences, and tonight is no different. The primary variable is the absence of Kemba Walker, who will miss Wednesday’s game along with Marcus Smart, while Daniel Theis will play through his hurt finger. In this configuration, Tatum has posted 1.58 fantasy points per minute, thrusting him into the upper echelon of potential daily fantasy basketball picks for tonight.

Tatum lands fourth overall on the DraftKings slate when sorting by optimal-lineup rate. He is the top-ranked player that does not wear a Spurs jersey on the court, coming in at a 24.5% clip. Tatum plays both forward spots on the site, adding to the appeal of the pick, and he has a healthy 33.4% boom-score probability for his relatively high salary. The public is getting to Tatum, but it would be advisable to push beyond their exposure; he still has a 0.4 leverage score.

On FanDuel Tatum is the fifth overall play on the board, with LeBron leaping between him and the oncoming Spurs trio atop the board for the site. Tatum carries a 30.10% optimal-lineup rate and will be under-owned, coming up with a 1.6 leverage score. Playing just from the top of the board by optimal-lineup rate looks like a great way to build a moderately contrarian core for FanDuel players tonight, picking two of three Spurs, James and Tatum would be a strong first few clicks. Tatum adds a 43.0% boom-score probability to the mix, outstripping LeBron in the category by a full 10 percentage points.

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Domantas Sabonis — Indiana Pacers

DraftKings — $10,500 — PF/C / FanDuel — $9,900 — PF

The top dog for the Pacers is the other primary power forward play on the Wednesday board. Sabonis is the focal point of the team’s attack, picking up a seasonal usage rate of 25.4% while contributing 37% of the team’s rebounding and a 29.4% assist share. He does a bit of everything and is priced well for his 1.25 fantasy points per minute. If you can fit him into the equation established with Tatum and James plus the Spurs value from the previous entry, so much the better, though it is a pricey proposition.

On FanDuel Sabonis lands in the optimal lineup in 25.4% of simulations, while coming up with a 29.5% boom-score probability on his nearly 37-minute projection. He offers another strong leverage score from the top of the board, coming in at a 3.9. The view from the top suggests that the public is looking at this slate the wrong way on the blue site, which could play to our advantage in getting to these picks.

On DraftKings Sabonis adds center eligibility but picks up a hefty additional salary. He costs $600 more on a site with a far lower salary cap. While this does not take Sabonis off the table on the site, it does hamper the frequency with which he appears in optimal lineups, rendering him far less relevant at just 9.8%. His boom-score probability drops to 15.4% given the much higher price, and he will be rostered at an exactly appropriate rate, creating a 0.0 leverage score. Sabonis lands as only fine on the site. He can be rostered, but we do not gain significant advantage in any direction in paying up for the privilege.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.