How was your evening sitting at the computer making late swap after late swap? If your night of daily fantasy basketball was anything like mine, you had a lot to deal with after lock, and the news just kept coming. A few critical late swaps and a lot of effort later and we managed to salvage what could have been total chaos. With just four games on tap tonight we can always hope things are more calm, but realistically we have to plan for the worst, so be sure to tune in for all the news later on. For our purposes, we’ll be looking at a few of the main building blocks of tonight’s slate and potentially trying to find a key lower-owned pivot or two. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.
As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).
[DAYTONA]
Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimized Lineups + Leverage Leaders
These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Malcom Brogdon – Indiana Pacers
DraftKings — $7,500 – PG/SG | FanDuel — $7,200 – PG
Pacers point guard Malcom Brogdon lands higher on the boom/bust board than we’ve seen him in recent memory, and he looks like a fundamental piece of today’s slate on both sites. Brogdon is an underrated performer in the league, but a player that daily fantasy basketball fans know fairly well. His 1.09 fantasy point per minute rate so far this season is improved from last year’s 1.07 mark, but he has not vaulted into a higher level of salary, making him an affordable play on both sites.
In DraftKings NBA contests, Brogdon adds shooting guard eligibility and lands in the optimal lineup in 26.1% of simulations. That lands him seventh overall on the slate, but fifth among point guards. He is third among shooting guards, behind James Harden, who is on an entirely different salary tier, and Eric Gordon, who is comparable. Given the positive leverage scores on all three players – a 1.7 with a 20.6% boom score probability for Brogdon, for example – we can take advantage of DraftKings’ flexibility and roster multiple players from the group at the shooting guard and guard spot, while utilizing the other high ranked players at the point guard should provide a very high-end core of options from which to expand lineups on the site.
On FanDuel, Brogdon ranks first overall on the slate with a whopping 46.2% optimal lineup appearance rate. He will be popular, but his 6.3 leverage score suggests that he is actually dramatically under-owned by the public, despite the popularity. Brogdon has a 30.9% boom score probability that ranks fourth overall on the slate, and first among point guards. Despite a few very high-end players who make reasonable pivots, Brogdon is a leading option at the point guard spot on FanDuel today.
Eric Gordon – Houston Rockets
DraftKings — $5,800 – PG/SG / FanDuel — $5,600 – SG
This one feels like pushing our luck. We hit on Gordon in this space the other day and, given the nature of the player, it’s just asking a lot to pull the trick twice. Still, that level of discomfort is exactly what we’re looking for in a GPP play for daily fantasy basketball, particularly when the discomfort is on a player whose metrics look great for the slate. The doubts and bias in the public lead to leverage for us, and Gordon fits that bill again tonight, with Victor Oladipo sitting out.
Leading the entire DraftKings slate with a 32.8% optimal lineup appearance rate just isn’t good enough for some people. Gordon has been atop the list all day, but still lands with a 5.2 leverage score on the site, the public simply does not trust him and is not getting to him enough. Gordon adds a 22.2% boom score probability, which is a strong number for this slate and firmly in play with only four games from which to choose our daily fantasy basketball lineups.
On FanDuel, Gordon is slightly more popular, lowering his leverage score but leaving it positive at 3.6. He ranks fourth overall on the slate with a 35.3% optimal lineup appearance rate, which is second among shooting guards to only former teammate James Harden. Gordon slots in as a strong play among relatively flat options across the position. Getting to him with positive leverage is a no-brainer if the board looks the same going into lock.
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David Nwaba – Houston Rockets
DraftKings — $3,400 — SG/SF / FanDuel — $4,900 — PG
Another of the Houston Rockets who should benefit from the absence of Victor Oladipo tonight, in terms of minutes and usage, is David Nwaba. For the season, Nwaba averages just 15.5 minutes, but he played 25 in Oladipo’s most recent absence. That game came up almost completely empty, putting up just two real life points and zero peripheral stats, but we can likely expect more from Nwaba tonight. He is a dramatically different play across sites, given the massive price differential.
On FanDuel, Nwaba is barely clinging to daily fantasy basketball picks relevance. He has just a 4.3% boom score probability on a salary that is obviously broken toward the high-end. Nwaba appears in just 6.3% of the optimal lineups in Awesemo’s simulations and we pick up no leverage by rostering him. Across 150 lineups, I am happy to be with the public’s minor share of Nwaba, if I am lower than the field I would be fine with that as well, given the options at the position.
In DraftKings contests, Nwaba looks like a significantly better play. He ranks eighth overall on the slate, appearing in 25.2% of the optimal lineups in slate simulations. He will be popular, but still maintains positive leverage, coming in with a 1.7 on Awesemo’s boom/bust tool. Nwaba has an opportunity for upside on a salary just $400 above the minimum, with an 11.9% boom score probability that is not slate-breaking, but could be a requirement if things break right, given the price and flexibility in the player.
Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors
DraftKings — $6,700 – PF/C / FanDuel — $7,600 – PF
As one of two high-end plays on the Warriors, who are playing the Brooklyn Nets in what is by far the night’s highest totaled game, Draymond Green looks like he is firmly in play in the frontcourt for our daily fantasy basketball lineups. Green’s production has been down overall for the year, with just a 0.93 fantasy point per minute rate, though he has trended in the right direction of late, finding ways to score fantasy points without scoring real life points. Over the team’s last five games, Green is averaging seven rebounds and 12.4 assists and adding 3.6 stocks, monster counting stats that rack up points quickly at the price.
On FanDuel, the pricing has caught up to Green’s recent production somewhat, but he still lands in 21.1% of optimal lineups, though he carries just a 12.6% boom score probability at 1.6 leverage. Green is one of the leading options at a weak position on the site tonight, but construction paths may take us in different directions as lineups come together.
On DraftKings, Green is far less expensive and he can be utilized at the center spot as well as the power forward. He lands in 21.7% of optimal lineups in simulations, but is drawing solid leverage with a 2.2 score that makes me want to start dropping him into lineups, given the pricing. Green is a leading option when we start to look to roster multiple centers, and will be an inflection point at the FLEX position on the site, given the number of guards we would also like to roster simultaneously. The 14.0% boom score probability stands out as a bit of a concern, but his upside for the positions at which he can be deployed outweighs any real downside, and I am happy to get beyond the field on the player, moving him into different roles as lineups dictate.
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