The daily fantasy basketball gods are smiling on us once again with a solid six-game schedule that could be called large for a Thursday. The slate has some interesting value plays on the board already, and with news emerging from all corners at all times this NBA season, there is more to come. There are only a few premier stars to pay up for, so playing into the mid-range or going with an aggressive stars and scrubs construction will be a key inflection point for the slate. With six games, we’ll be looking at a few of the plays who appear frequently in optimal lineups but are not in the very top ownership tier. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.
As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).
Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders
These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
De’Aaron Fox – Sacramento Kings
DraftKings — $7,800 — PG | FanDuel — $7,700 — PG
Fox has been excellent in his brief time in the league. Playing his fourth season, he has career averages of 17 real-life points, 3.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists with 1.3 steals per game, numbers which are improved across the board this season. Fox’s scoring average took a leap last year; he went from 17.3 points per game as an NBA sophomore to a robust 21.1, and he is up to 22.5 this season. He leads the Kings attack that ranks 11th in the league in pace, and he commands 29.2% of the usage while posting a 10.4% rebounding rate and 42.3% assist share.
On FanDuel Fox ranks eighth overall by optimal-lineup rate at 25.1%, and he is the highest-ranked point guard. Fox is by no means unpopular, but he has a strong 3.6 leverage score that also leads the position. Fox comes up a leader again when considering his 43.3% boom-score probability. He and Russell Westbrook make for a top-notch, undervalued pairing as pay-up point guards on the blue site tonight. The value tier appears to be slightly over-owned on the site, pushing the appeal of this pairing.
On DraftKings Fox has a 19.2% optimal-lineup rate in simulations, good for third among eligible point guards, behind Knicks teammates Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley at the top of the board. Fox has popularity numbers that are on pace with the rate at which he appears in the optimal construction, but it would not be difficult to exceed the field on a player with a strong median projection and a 30.6% boom-score probability. Getting to Fox on both sites seems like a good decision tonight.
Evan Fournier – Orlando Magic
DraftKings — $6,800 — SG | FanDuel — $7,000 — SG
Looking for less-appealing plays from down the popularity board brings us to Fournier, who is making his first appearance as a featured player in this space. Fournier is on the board for FanDuel in a big way today given a lack of popularity, while he is more of a moving piece on DraftKings. For the season Fournier averages 1.03 fantasy points per minute when healthy, and he should see a full 30 minutes or more tonight. Over the team’s last four games, since Fournier returned from his most recent bout with injury, he has averaged 22.5 real-life points in 31.7 minutes per game while seeing 28.0% of the team’s usage and contributing a 13.3% rebounding percentage and 24.4% assist share.
For tonight’s action on DraftKings, Fournier is primarily a mix-and-match piece. He ranks well overall, but it not a true standout among other options at his position. Fournier comes up with an 8.7% optimal-lineup rate and will be slightly under-owned by the public, creating a 1.0 leverage score. He has a reasonable 15.4% boom-score probability for the money and is not overpriced. When a mid-range player like Fournier is underappreciated with the upside of being the team’s true No. 2, we can exceed a sub-10% ownership share with ease while not making Fournier a major part of our plans for the slate.
On FanDuel he looks far more relevant. Fournier comes up with a 13.5% optimal-lineup rate, good for fifth among small forwards. He is the lowest owned of the top five in terms of raw public ownership, and he has the highest leverage score by far. Fournier is similarly priced to Khris Middleton and Brandon Ingram, both of whom rank above him at the position but will be far more popular. Fournier seems a quality pivot with a lower salary and a relatively close boom-score probability of 18.9%. The leverage score of 5.4 is the primary interest, however. On a six-game slate we can squeeze value like that for all it is worth.
Derrick Rose – New York Knicks
DraftKings — $4,600 — PG/SG / FanDuel — $5,700 — PG
Rose is back in New York and, for tonight at least, is expected to pull starters minutes while Elfrid Payton nurses a sore hamstring. With a 28.6 projection and upside for a bit more, Rose is very relevant where he is underpriced. Rose has been a quality producer for daily fantasy basketball lineups throughout his career. This season he is at 1.11 fantasy points per minute in all situations. He has been at 1.09 since coming to the Knicks, though most of those minutes have been off the bench in a featured role with the second unit. Rose has never been shy about commanding the ball, and his fit with Julius Randle for a full game will be interesting to watch, but there could be significant upside in the play.
The better spot for Rose tonight is clearly on DraftKings. He ranks as the top option on the board at any position when sorting by optimal-lineup rate, coming in with a whopping 44.8%. His salary is simply too low on the site, and he provides flexibility at both guard spots to boot. Rose comes up with a 46.5% boom-score probability, and his leverage score is not nearly far enough into the negatives to concern us, sitting at only -6.3. For a player this likely to be a mandatory piece of accessing the very top of GPP standings, we have to seriously consider exceeding even 50% public ownership.
On FanDuel the Rose play does not look nearly as strong. There are other options with appeal at the point guard spot and no positional flexibility. Rose is appropriately priced on the blue site and comes up with just a 32.6% boom-score probability. That is still a strong mark, but it sits behind several other options at the position. The optimal-lineup rate also lags behind a number of better options. Rose is in the optimal lineup in just 20% of simulated FanDuel slates, while the public is getting to him too frequently for that pace, creating a -3.8 leverage score. While I may end up with some Rose, I will be under the field on him, and I am happy to get my point guards from a different shelf on FanDuel tonight.
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Nikola Vucevic — Orlando Magic
DraftKings — $9,900 — C/ FanDuel — $10,000 — C
With dueling Nikolas on the slate, daily fantasy basketball picks at center will once again come down to Vucevic or Nikola Jokic. Both players are projected for significant ownership on both sites, and Jokic is the clear leader by optimal-lineup rate, coming in at 34.3% on FanDuel and 34.2% on DraftKings in his ridiculously favorable matchup with the Wizards. Vucevic’s appeal is in his lack of similar popularity and the savings he provides by comparison. Vucevic has been a beast for the Magic since the injury to Aaron Gordon and several other contributors for the team. We have covered the numbers at length in this space, and he would be my pick again in a significant share of lineups.
On DraftKings Vucevic ranks fifth overall by optimal-lineup rate, coming in at 20.8%. The mark ranks behind Jokic’s number, but we pick up $400 savings in rostering Vucevic, who will be a full 14 percentage points less popular. Vucevic has a 5.9 leverage score on the slate, compared to the 0.10 of his counterpart. For the money, there is nothing wrong with getting to the 37.6% boom-score probability with a pivot to Vucevic, as long as the savings is spent on a strong upgrade at another position.
On FanDuel Vucevic draws even closer. The one-center slate forces builds down specific construction paths, and Vucevic is a big presence in 27.1% of them, second only to Jokic’s 34.3% at the position. The $900 savings on the blue site is more stark and makes the Vucevic play more valuable, particularly when we consider his 49.8% boom-score probability and the lack of significant public ownership that is indicated by his 3.6 leverage score. I will gladly make this pivot again and again in roster constructions for FanDuel lineups tonight.
Khris Middleton — Milwaukee Bucks
DraftKings — $8,200 — SG/SF/ FanDuel — $7,600 — SF
Continually disrespected in both DFS contests and digital basketball video marketplaces, Middleton is underpriced and slightly under-owned on both sites tonight. Middleton has popped up in this space recently as a downward blip in his production had reduced his salary and popularity. The production has disappointed fantasy owners, and Middleton will be under 15% owned on a six-game slate on DraftKings tonight, which feels wrong. Producing 1.13 fantasy points per minute this season, Middleton was at 1.19 just last year and has shown similar heights without much issue.
On DraftKings Middleton is both a shooting guard and a small forward, which makes him a play in the optimal lineup more than 15% of the time. The public is ignoring that rate, however, as Middleton is carrying a healthy 3.8 leverage score to go with his 21.6% boom-score probability. There is upside and leverage in the play while going to an underpriced share of one of the league’s better players. I will be happy to exceed the field for Middleton once again.
On FanDuel he comes back to the pack slightly because he will be popular. The play still looks very strong. In fact, Middleton is more likely to be a requirement on FanDuel than he is DraftKings given his 28.8% optimal-lineup rate. The leverage score drops to 1.1, however, as the lack of options at the small forward spot catches up to us. Middleton has a 40.0% boom-score probability and is well under where he should be priced, coming in at just $7,600. It is justifiable and advisable to exceed the field’s ownership on Middleton once again tonight.
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