Monday night delivers an eight-game slate, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | March 22
Small Forward: Khris Middleton
DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A
FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A
Middleton is a core piece for both cash games and GPPs tonight with Giannis Antetokounmpo (out, knee) missing his second game of the season. In the eight total contests Giannis has missed the past two seasons, Middleton has been a beast as the Bucks’ top option, producing 46 DraftKings points per game. Due to a notable 7.6% increase to his usage, Middleton generates a team-best 1.34 DraftKings points per minute when Antetokounmpo is off the court this season.
Even with Antetokounmpo inactive, tonight’s Bucks – Pacers’ tilt has the largest over/under of Monday’s eight-game slate (231.5 points), and Milwaukee is tied for the highest implied team total on the board (118.5 points). Lastly, Indiana has been very vulnerable to small forwards this season, giving up the second-most DraftKings points per game to the position. At reasonable price tags on both sites, Middleton is an extremely difficult fade for any format.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 42.7%, FanDuel 59.5%
Shooting Guard: Anthony Edwards
DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: B, Values: C
His salary is close to correct FanDuel, but on DraftKings Edwards is way too cheap at $7,200. He has been on a tremendous run, scoring 41 DraftKings in his last 10. Edwards has recorded at least 35 DraftKings points in nine of these starts, with four showings of over 40 fantasy points, including a career-high 60.25 DraftKings points against the Suns last Thursday. In the first 32 games of his NBA career, Edwards only topped 35 DraftKings points six times. The main difference has been that Malik Beasley (suspended) and D’Angelo Russell (knee) have both been sidelined. In these last nine with the two these guards absent, Edwards has taken on a team-high 32.6% usage rate, even with Karl-Anthony Towns healthy and playing in all of these games.
In all the time he has spent without Russell and Beasley during his rookie season, Edwards has amassed 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. Tonight the Wolves will be going against a Thunder defense that has rated as the second-worst defense in the association since the All-Star Break, and this Northwest divisional matchup presents a solid 227-point game total. With LaMelo Ball (wrist) done for the season, the time is now for Edwards to make his push for Rookie of the Year, and I think we will see him shine with over 40 fantasy points in this strong spot.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 14.4%, FanDuel 8.4%
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Shooting Guard: Terry Rozier
DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A
With Ball expected to miss the remainder of the season, Rozier instantly sees a bump to his fantasy stock. When Ball has been off the floor, Rozier’s usage has risen 1.2% and his assist rate has increased 3%. More importantly, Rozier should see a sizable bump to his playing time sans Ball. Ball has not missed any full games in 2020-21, but if we look at the four contests the Hornets have played without Gordon Hayward this year, Charlotte has used a tighter rotation that led to a team-high 35.6 minutes per game for Rozier.
Monday’s date with the Spurs is projected to stay competitive throughout (Spurs -5), and San Antonio’s backcourt has had major issues defensively this season, yielding the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing shooting guards. In his first matchup with the Spurs last month, Rozier went off for 53.25 DraftKings points. At lower price points, Devonte’ Graham is the obvious value play from the Hornets tonight. Don’t get me wrong; I will have exposure to Graham, but his popularity creates an appealing leverage situation with Rozier. Rozier has a much higher ceiling than Graham and is going to come with nearly half the ownership in GPPs on DraftKings.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 15.5%, FanDuel 19.0%
Center: Ivica Zubac
DraftKings Grades: B, Values: A
FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A
Zubac has received a large role with Serge Ibaka (out, back) sidelined the last three games. Saturday night was a blowout in favor Los Angeles, and Zubac was only needed for 24.5 minutes. Still, he saw 17.6 minutes in the first half, only trailing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George for the team and putting him on pace for 35.2 minutes if the contest had not gotten out of hand. The two previous contests were both tight from start to finish, and Zubac handled 34.8 minutes per game, resulting in 32.75 DraftKings per game.
The Hawks will be visiting the Clippers tonight, and Vegas is expecting a close affair (Clippers – 6). Barring foul trouble, Zubac should get over 30 minutes and effortlessly beat his soft price tags. For his career he is averaging 35.5 DraftKings points per game when he has surpassed the 30-minute threshold, exceeding 30 DraftKings points 80% of the time.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 29.7%, FanDuel 19.3%
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