In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Feb. 4
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates
John Wall vs. Grizzlies: $7,500/$6,900
18.7% DraftKings Boom/19.9% FanDuel Boom
The Rockets’ game last night did not go as planned. Playing against the Thunder with both George Hill and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, Houston liked it would crush Oklahoma City. The game had blowout risk, as expected, but it was the Rockets who were on the receiving end of the beatdown. They lost by 17 points, and the starters didn’t play in the fourth quarter. Wall can’t get blamed for the loss since he didn’t play. He rested since it was a back-to-back situation, and Houston is resting Victor Oladipo today. This should open up extra usage for Wall in the starting lineup. He remains relatively cheap, and his minutes restriction is starting to come off.
Luka Doncic vs. Warriors: $11,300/$10,900
31.7% DraftKings Boom/31.5% FanDuel Boom
Since this is the tail end of a back-to-back, I am assuming Kristaps Porzingis will rest tonight. Sportsbooks aren’t sure what to make of this situation because, as of this morning, there are no player props from Mavericks players. Without Porzingis on the court this season, Doncic has a 38% usage rate. His fantasy production actually goes down on a per-minute basis, but I don’t weigh this too much. Doncic started the season out of shape and didn’t play well. He didn’t find his groove until he got in shape, which also coincided with when Porzingis came. In general I expected Doncic to have bigger fantasy nights when Porzingis is off the court.
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Monte Morris vs. Lakers: $4,200/$3,900
11% DraftKings Boom/24.3% FanDuel Boom
On a slate without many viable cheap options, Morris is one of the only sources of value on FanDuel and DraftKings. Gary Harris is out because of an adductor injury, and Morris will likely start in his place. In his only other start of the season, Morris played 37 minutes and scored 37.75 DraftKings points. I don’t expect that kind of output again, but it shows the kind of upside he has when playing extended minutes. His boom rating isn’t great, although this is still a better number than just about every other potential option we have.
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates
LeBron James vs. Nuggets: $10,700/$10,000
60.7% DraftKings Bust/63.3% FanDuel Bust
Our tool is not fond of James tonight. For the first time this season, he’s actually listed as probable instead of questionable, but I still don’t feel great about him. LeBron’s playing is down a bit from last year, and his assist rate is way lower. With Dennis Schroder in the starting lineup, James doesn’t have the ball in his hands quite as often. This has stunted his fantasy production a bit, and he averages about 4 fewer fantasy points per game this season. Doncic and Nikola Jokic are preferred spend-up options for me tonight.
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