In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Jan. 4
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates
Delon Wright vs. Bucks: $4,400/$4,000
36.8% DraftKings Boom/39.9% FanDuel Boom
There is a big void to fill for Detroit tonight. Since this is the tail end of a back-to-back, Blake Griffin is resting. In addition, Josh Jackson is out because of ankle injury. Wright is one of the more likely players to step up for the Pistons both in terms of playing time and usage. We could see Wright move into the starting lineup tonight, which is a role he’s found fantasy success in. In two starts, Wright is playing over 30 minutes per game and averaging 29.63 DraftKings points.
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Jimmy Butler vs. Thunder: $7,700/$7,400
28.1% DraftKings Boom/42.6% FanDuel Boom
This is a great buy-low spot on Butler. He’s an established veteran and there is no cause for concern with a slow start. Butler has only played in three games this season, which is the result of an ankle injury. He played well in the first game of the season but got injured in the second game. After time off, Butler came back and played limited minutes. He’s performed well the only time he’s played a full game this season. Butler has a big price discount, and there is no reason to suggest his price shouldn’t go back up. His price drop isn’t due to on-court issues.
De’Aaron Fox vs. Hornets: $8,200/$8,000
28% DraftKings Boom/43.3% FanDuel Boom
Tonight’s game between the Kings and Warriors is a great spot to target. This game has the highest total on the slate. Stephen Curry figures to draw most of the headlines after scoring 62 points yesterday, but I think Fox makes for the better DFS play tonight. We are yet to see Fox break a slate but he’s showing some promising signs. Most notably, his usage is trending up. Fox has usage rating north of 30% in three of his last four games. His shooting efficiency is down in those games, but if the shots start falling, a big fantasy night is coming for him. The pace of his game should allow him to continue to see shot volume, and the Warriors have the fourth-worst defensive efficiency in the league.
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates
Victor Oladipo vs. Pelicans: $7,400/$7,000
74.8% DraftKings Bust/69.3% FanDuel Bust
I have concerns with Oladipo. He struggled coming back from a knee injury last season, and this year there are some issues from a fantasy perspective. Oladipo’s efficiency looks good, but it’s due to unsustainable shooting. He has never made a high percentage of 3’s, and he’s making over 40% to open the season. Regression is coming, and he’s shooting less often. Oladipo’s 24.8% usage rating is his lowest since coming to the Pacers. This is also a tougher matchup than numbers might indicate because this Pelicans’ team is different from last season. They are playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the league and rank fourth in defensive efficiency.
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