In case you’ve had enough college football for the day, the NBA has got us covered, with eight games on tonight’s docket. Using our tools, this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high-and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for today, including Kevin Durant and T.J. Warren.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
Starting off, Kevin Durant is in a great spot against the Hornets and looks to be severely under-owned, with only 7.70% of rosters expected to have him on DraftKings. As of this writing, Durant looks like one the top options DFS players can look to for leverage this evening.
Averaging 50.5 DraftKings points per game, Durant is coming off a big time a big time performance against the Hawks in which he put up 26 points, 16 rebounds, eight assists and two blocks. Matched up with a Charlotte team that ranks 24th in the NBA against opposing power forwards, Durant couldn’t ask to be in a better spot and he’s is currently projected to be optimal 12.30% of the time on DraftKings and 9.10% of the time on FanDuel, offering strong leverage on both sites.
Staying with the Nets, T.J. Warren is another player flying way under the radar tonight. Priced at $4,400 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel, Warren has played 26 and 27 minutes in each of the past two games as he starts to establish himself as a core member of Brooklyn’s rotation. Coming off a subpar performance against Atlanta, the masses are completely off of Warren in this spot and he’s right there with Durant as one of the top leverage plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Projected to be optimal 10.70% of the time on DraftKings and 11.40% of the time on FanDuel, Warren is only projected for 5.60% ownership on DK and 6.60% on FD. Expect Warren to play at least 25 minutes again tonight with the chance for more, especially if Ben Simmons is out, and he’s an elite contrarian play across both sites.
On the other side, Saddiq Bey is rating poorly from a leverage perspective on DraftKings in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool and might be worth fading. At only $4,000, Bey is projected to be 49.90% owned on DraftKings but has an optimal percentage of 31.70%. At this cheap price point, it makes sense that Bey is getting love, but with other cheap plays like T.J. Warren and Mark Williams going under owned, it might be wise to stay away from Bey in tournaments.
Situations to Monitor
With eight games on tap, there are a few situations to monitor tonight. Both Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are questionable for Cleveland, and if they sit everyone else on the Cavs gets a boost. Jalen Brunson and Rudy Gobert remain questionable for New York and Minnesota and if they sit Naz Reid and Immanuel Quickley become must plays. Lastly, Larry Nance Jr. is questionable for New Orleans, potentially putting Jonas Valanciunas in play at $6,600 on DraftKings.
Of course, the NBA injury news is always unpredictable and it seems like every night we get unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are sometimes less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows on YouTube at 4:45 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.
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