The basketball gods have blessed us with a six-game Saturday night slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Saturday, Oct. 29 including Joel Embiid and Desmond Bane.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
With six games on tap tonight, ownership is expected to be pretty spread amongst the studs, mostly leaving it up to the DFS player on who they want to prioritize. First and foremost, Joel Embiid is in a great spot against Chicago and looks to be severely under owned with only 5.8% rosters expected to have him. Averaging a ho-hum 48.2 DraftKings points per game to start the season, Joel Embiid will look to continue his dominant ways against Chicago, as the former Kansas big man has at least 58 DraftKings points in each of his last three games against the Bulls. After resting last night in Toronto, Embiid should be ready to go matched up with a Chicago front court that just gave up 47.5 DraftKings points to Jakob Poeltl last night. Projected to be in the optimal lineup 13% of the time, Embiid has one of the highest leverage scores on the slate and he looks like an elite spend up option in GPP’s.
Desmond Bane is also too cheap for his upside tonight, priced at $7,400 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel. Averaging 40.3 DraftKings points through Memphis’ first five games, Bane has been phenomenal so far this season and he should see a massive boost with Ja Morant doubtful tonight. Projected to be considerably under owned across both sites, Bane is projected to be in the optimal lineup 35.8% of the time on DraftKings with only 26.9% of the field expected to roster him. Similarly, on FanDuel, Bane is expected to be optimal 34% of the time with only 30% of the field projected to roster him.
One stud that is rating poorly from a leverage perspective on DraftKings in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool and is worth fading tonight is Kevin Durant. While fading the Easy Money Sniper never feels good, Durant is projected to be 22.20% owned on DraftKings with an optimal percentage of only 17.00%. Averaging 48.6 DraftKings points per game, the Nets superstar has certainly been solid this season, but with other stars like Embiid and Giannis Antetokoumpo in better spots, it might be wise to stay away from Durant in tournaments.
Value Tier
With the Grizzlies missing Morant tonight, Tyus Jones is expected to be the chalk of the slate, projecting to be the most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. With Morant in this season, Jones has averaged a respectable 21.9 points on DraftKings and 20.9 points on FanDuel. Still priced on both sites for Morant to be in, the former Duke standout has averaged 11.3 points, 6.5 assists and 2.9 rebounds in 38 career games without Morant on the court. While he’s expected to be extremely chalky and fading that ownership can seem intriguing in tournaments, Jones is projected to be optimal 58.2% of the time on DraftKings and a whopping 65.1% of the time on FanDuel. Definitely a better play on the DraftKings side of things, Jones is projected to be only 53.3% owned there compared to on FanDuel where he’s expected to be on 71.9% of rosters.
Situations to Monitor
Aside from Morant being doubtful, there aren’t many situations to monitor on tonight’s slate. Myles Turner is out for the Pacers after dominating the Wizards last night, putting all of the other Indiana big men in play on both DraftKings and Fanduel. Jalen Smith is getting the bulk of the ownership, but both Isaiah Jackson and Goga Bitadze look like better tournament options across both sites.
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