It is a nine-game slate on the docket for our NHL DFS picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are a few teams playing their second game in as many nights and that means Stokastic subscribers should check in our Discord for updates throughout the day. Some of our top NHL DFS picks include Nazem Kadri of the Calgary Flames and Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Alright, let’s dig into this slate.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Nazem Kadri (CGY vs. EDM): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $7,800
Despite a new team and more than two fewer minutes per game than his career year a season ago, Nazem Kadri has picked up where he left off with four goals and nine points in six games. Despite the TOI drop, he’s managing career-high shot rates at both 5-on-5 and on the power play. The shot increase has mitigated his ice-time decline so he’s still landing 3.5 shots on target per game as he did a year ago.
There are a couple of reasons for using Kadri against Edmonton tonight. First is the Edmonton penalty kill, namely that they lead the league in power plays given to the opposition on the season at five per night. Calgary’s top PP unit, which features Kadri, is generating nearly 14 expected goals and over 20 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those are huge offensive numbers. Tying into that is Edmonton’s penalty kill, which is bottom-10 by expected goals allowed and 22nd by actual goals allowed. It is a great PP matchup for the Flames.
Kadri has a lack of PP correlation with his line mates and they don’t earn heavy TOI totals so using him as a one-off tonight is perfectly fine, as is a PP stack with parts of the top line.
Ryan Johansen (NSH vs. WSH): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $5,300
Nashville added Ryan Johansen to their top trio last game, and he replied with a goal. He played just 15:33 but the Predators do like to spread the ice time among the forwards. He should skate more than that tonight – it was his lowest mark in six games – but the price also reflects this reality.
Going back to 2021-22, this iteration of the Nashville top line with Johansen generates 2.7 expected goals and 4.0 actual goals per 60 minutes. They control 55.5% of the expected goal share so there is a history of success. They will also face a Washington top line that has struggled this year as the duo of Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin control just 47.5% of the expected goals and are, at best, average defensively. Washington has some key injuries and this first trio for them hasn’t been able to generate much offensively, which leads to its own defensive issues.
Washington doesn’t take many penalties – fourth-fewest times short-handed this season – but they are struggling to kill the ones they do take, ranking bottom-10 in the league by expected goals and actual goals allowed per minute. Johansen is fine as a one-off tonight but his line mate power-play correlation means the whole unit can be used in tournaments.
For a cheaper center on FanDuel, Alexander Kerfoot (TOR, $4,400) has been moved to the second line alongside John Tavares and William Nylander. He is one of our top center values priced under $4,500.
Winger
Mitch Marner (TOR at LAK): DraftKings – $6,500 | FanDuel – $7,600
There were times a year ago when Mitch Marner would be considerably more expensive than he is now in DFS. A big problem in 2022-23 has been his goal-scoring, as he averaged nearly a 40-goal pace a year ago but is on a 20-goal pace right now. His shot attempts per minute have declined a bit, but the culprit is small-sample noise. Right now, he’s landing just 29% of his 5-on-5 shot attempts on goal. His three-year average is 52%. Simply missing the net has led to 7-8 fewer shots on goal than he should have. He should be close to three shots per game and once that starts correcting, his peripherals will climb, and his goal totals with them.
Toronto added Michael Bunting back to the top line and going back to last year, that trio is generating 3.7 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, a monster number. They are facing a Los Angeles top-6 that has struggled mightily defensively and the Kings are giving their opponents the fourth-most power plays per game. Marner’s reasonable price means he can be used as a one-off tonight but bringing him along with at least Auston Matthews makes a lot of sense for correlation purposes.
Jeff Skinner (BUF vs. CHI): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $4,900
It has been a slow start to the year for Jeff Skinner, scoring his first goal of the campaign in the team’s game on Thursday night, posting three total points. His shots per game are down but he’s kind of having the same issue as Marner, just on the power play. He’s landing just 22% of his PP shot attempts on goal, where is three-year average in this regard is closer to 66%. He should have triple the PP shots on goal that he actually does and when that corrects, he’ll be back in the three-shots-per-game neighborhood.
That PP shot volume is also what draws us to this matchup tonight. Chicago’s penalty kill isn’t bad – middle of the league by most metrics – but they are second in the league to Edmonton in power-play opportunities to the opponent. Buffalo could see 4-5 power plays tonight and Skinner’s top-unit slotting means a good matchup for him.
Whether Skinner cracks 30 goals again is a fair question but he won’t score 11-12 when healthy. He tops our mid-range winger projections on DK tonight and tops our sub-$5,000 winger projections on FD. The 30-year-old can be used by himself or in line stacks.
Evan Rodrigues (COL at NYI): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $4,800
This selection is all about the Colorado lineup. Having played last night, we won’t get morning skate information and we may not know where Even Rodrigues is lined up until warmups at 7:00 ET. Over half the slate will have locked by then so if he’s moved around, swap options will be winnowed.
As for that lineup slotting, with the injuries and lack of productive depth, Rodrigues was moved to the top line last night alongside Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon. He also skated on the top PP unit with them as well, earning 21:24 in total ice time. He has just two points (both goals) on the year, but if he’s top line/top power play for the Avalanche, at his price, he warrants serious consideration. He is more expensive (and a center) on FanDuel but still playable with his expected usage. Among all DK wingers tonight priced $4,000 or less, Rodrigues leads our value charts.
The New York Islanders also played last night and that means Semyon Varlamov in goal, a big downgrade from Ilya Sorokin. The Islanders are also near the bottom of the league in even-strength defense metrics, so this is a good matchup for Rodrigues and his line mates, even on the road in a back-to-back.
With Rodrigues a center on FD, a cheap winger that we can use is Mike Hoffman (MTL, $3,700). He was moved to the top line for the Canadiens, as well as the top PP unit, and had his highest TOI in six games. He rates as a top low-priced wing value for us on FanDuel this evening. Let’s head to our defense for the NHL DFS picks tonight.
Defense
Ivan Provorov (PHI vs. CAR): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $6,300
Our defense options at the top-end are slim tonight and rather than just talk about Cale Makar and Roman Josi every article, we are looking at Ivan Provorov tonight. He has yet to score on the season but is reliable for near 10 goals/82 games even without top PP time. Provorov’s blocked shots are just absurd this year, averaging just over four per game. Nine of those came in one contest but even without them, he’s still well over three per matchup. It seems the new coaching regime wants him throwing his body in front of more shots.
It is understandable not using Provorov given his lack of top PPTOI, but the Flyers are getting a Carolina team that is on a road back-to-back with a backup goalie in net. He is a defenseman that loves jumping into the play and has a high peripheral floor to work with, coming in with low single-digit ownership. Paying up for guys like Makar and Josi is just fine but Provorov makes a nice tournament pivot, even as his high price chews into his value.
Vince Dunn (SEA vs. PIT): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $4,300
The first note on Vince Dunn is he doesn’t rack up peripherals. His all-strengths shot attempt rate since getting to Seattle is roughly the 70th percentile, which is fine but certainly not elite. He also doesn’t block many shots. What he does is run the top PP unit for Seattle and while Pittsburgh is middle-of-the-road by times short-handed this season, the penalty kill is bottom-5 in the league by most metrics. In fact, they are allowing the most shots against per minute on the PK of any franchise. Dunn skates over three minutes a game with the man advantage so there’s a real chance of point production against a Penguins team playing their second road game in as many nights, their fourth in six nights, and five road games in eight days. Dunn can be used by himself or in some sort of stack with the Jaden Schwartz line for PP correlation.
Goalie
Carter Hart (PHI vs. CAR): DraftKings – $7,000 | FanDuel – $6,900
It has been a superb start from Carter Hart who has managed a save percentage over .930 in all five of his starts, winning each of them. He has yet to allow more than three goals in any game despite facing the third-highest shot volume per 60 minutes of any regular goalie this year (only John Gibson and Karel Vejmelka facing more).
Hart had a couple of rough years at the start of the pandemic but almost every Flyers player did. It is why they made so many significant signings/trades. In his first two years, though, he was in the upper-half of the league by high-danger save percentage and Goals Saved Above Expected (per Evolving Hockey). He is just 24 years old so he could be reclaiming his earlier glory after a tumultuous time. With Carolina on a road back-to-back and Hart’s low price (and expected shot volume against), he’s a low-priced tournament option for us tonight.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
TOR1: Matthews-Marner-Bunting
Ever see the movie Tin Cup? It is a 1990s golf movie and there’s a scene where Kevin Costner keeps hitting his shot into the water, dropping his ball, and hitting it into the water again. He does it over and over as his dreams start slipping away. Eventually, with his back against the wall, and down to his final ball before being disqualified, he lands his approach shot on the green and it rolls in the cup. His persistence to that one shot eventually pays off after a slew of embarrassing attempts.
Anyway, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in Los Angeles tonight. Their top line Has 19 points in the team’s eight games, which doesn’t seem horrible, but there are only three multi-point games between them and none on the same night. DFS players have been Tin Cup’ing Toronto’s top line all season.
This trio leads all lines (min. 60 minutes) in the NHL in expected goals generated per minute at 5-on-5, they just haven’t been able to finish. They keep landing their approach shots in the water. However, Toronto gets a Los Angeles team whose top-6 has struggled defensively (all league average or worse) and the Kings take a lot of penalties. Ownership is in check (just over 10% on DK, single digits on FD) and projections are strong. Tonight, we are all Kevin Costner.
MTL1: Suzuki-Caufield-Hoffman
For a contrarian option, we should look to the Montreal top line tonight. They have gone to a five-forward top PP unit, which has put all three names here on the same power-play quintet. However, we aren’t using them for the PP matchup (St. Louis takes very few penalties). They will face off against a newly-formed St. Louis top line without a sample, but with Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn on the ice over the last two years, the team is allowing 3.1 expected goals against and 3.6 actual goals against. Schenn and Vladimir Tarasenko – the other winger – have seen their defensive impacts decline severely with age and it could make for a sneaky-good matchup for Montreal’s top line here. They are carrying almost no ownership by our Top Stacks tool, coming in under 1% on both sites. Be sure to include low amounts of shares of this threesome for those multi-entering contests.
*Additional Stats from Natural Stat Trick
