The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
Be sure to check out this morning’s Strategy Show featuring Rynpak and Josh!
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Mar. 21
Note: We changed the format of the article to try and make it a little bit easier to digest. If you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack: tmcb74.
Point Guard
Point guard looks like a very deep position with numerous stars and pay-up options available. DraftKings players receive even more riches when we include players who gain point guard eligibility between sites. James Harden, Collin Sexton, C.J. McCollum and Fred VanVleet all pick up positional bonuses on the site. It is important to note that Harden is available exclusively as a point guard on DraftKings, while he is a shooting guard on FanDuel, which is where we have placed his writeup for today’s slate.
Luka Doncic ($11,000 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel) is never a bad place to begin our point guard discussion. Doncic averages1.51 fantasy points per minute on the season and is among the slate-leaders for the day in the metrics on Awesemo’s boom/bust tool. Dallas’ matchup with the Portland Trailblazers has the second-highest available total on the slate and a close line, meaning we could see some fireworks. For the season, Doncic is averaging 28.8 real points in 35.6 minutes per game, seeing a team-leading 35% usage. He had a terrific 53.7% assist rate and a 26.7% rebounding rate to the equation. Where we can afford him, Doncic is simply one of the best point guards on this or any slate.
Russell Westbrook ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel) and his running mate Bradley Beal make up the bulk of the offense for the Wizards. Westbrook is one of the leading positional plays on both sites tonight, and it appears that the public will be somewhat underweight on him given the hefty price tag. With 1.40 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, Westbrook has been delivering for daily fantasy basketball players. He has a solid 21.8 real life point scoring average in 34.7 minutes per game, requiring 30.6% of the team’s usage to get there. Westbrook adds a 31.2% rebounding rate and a 55.7% assist share to his production, making him one of the more diversified options on the board in terms of producing fantasy points.
Kyrie Irving ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) will be on the opposite side of the game from Westbrook, in what is by far the game with the highest overall total on the board. The track meet is currently riding a massive 247.5 total, and the next-highest game is nearly a full 20 points lower at a 228 total. Irving will pair with Harden once again, as Kevin Durant remains on the shelf. Irving averages 1.25 fantasy points per minute across all situations without Durant or traded players on the court this year. He makes a solid option at a bit of a stepped down salary, but he will be very popular on both sites tonight given the opportunity and upside.
Damian Lillard ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) has been having a monster season, carrying the Blazers during McCollum’s extended absence with 1.35 fantasy points per minute. In three games since McCollum’s return, Lillard has averaged 39 real points in 37.7 minutes per game, maintaining a 34.4% usage rate and adding a 42.1% assist share and 16.3% rebounding rate. Even with his wingman back, Lillard remains a top option on both sites and is highly capable of smashing through his required ceiling scores against a large salary.
Dennis Schroder ($6,900 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) is going to be doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the Lakers in the short-term. LeBron James injured his ankle during last night’s contest and will be out for the foreseeable future. With fellow stud Anthony Davis also on the shelf, Schroder is one of the few remaining NBA-caliber players on the Lakers roster. In 230 minutes without either star on the court this season, Schroder averages 1.08 fantasy points per minute, way up from his 0.87 rate across all situations. Schroder is the first of our spend-down plays on the board, coming in as a strong mid-range option.
Ben Simmons ($9,000 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) is currently questionable to play, a day after sitting out and creating a massive opportunity for Tobias Harris and several of the 76ers value players. Simmons’ status will be worth monitoring going into lock. If he plays, he will be one of his team’s lead options and he projects relatively well given the 1.23 fantasy points per minute he puts up in the absence of center Joel Embiid. If Simmons does not play, we will probably look to Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey once again.
Chris Paul ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) is again slightly underpriced on both sites. Taking on the empty Lakers jerseys, the Suns should have a cakewalk of a game, which could potentially impact the playing time for a veteran star like Paul. At his price tag on both sites, Paul could make the value we need from him in short run. He has put up 1.16 fantasy points per minute through all situations this season and carries a massive 49.6% assist share into this one. Paul can rack up fantasy scoring in multiple ways, and he is a solid mid-range option on both sites.
Darius Garland ($6,400 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) appears to be gaining some popularity on the slate by virtue of being lower-cost than many of the other point guard options. He is not without upside on the slate and has more of it on FanDuel against a lower price tag. For the season, Garland is at 0.86 fantasy points per minute, and he has a 17.7 real life point scoring average over the team’s most recent 10 games (Garland appeared in nine). Across that stretch, Garland received 26% of the team’s usage and provided a solid 42.0% assist share. If he is in for full run and approaching those marks, he should have some utility in what is projected to be a relatively low-scoring contest against the Raptors.
Kyle Lowry ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) is likely a bit overpriced — or at worst on-value — given the Raptors’ return to health. When all three of their main pieces are available, they begin to cannibalize one another’s fantasy point production. Typically we want to chase the players who are priced down or play the ownership and leverage game with the trio. Across all situations, Lowry has 1.05 fantasy points per minute, which leaves him slightly shy of where we want him against this salary. He is in play as a mix-in option but will need to get over the top to deliver for us.
Additional values include Delon Wright who will be manning the primary ball-handling duties for the Pistons once again, though he is appropriately priced for the opportunity; Elfrid Payton who is questionable but could return and play something around 26 minutes for the Knicks against a potentially depleted Sixers team; and Raul Neto on FanDuel, where he is the flat minimum for the team’s track meet against the Nets.
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Shooting Guard
The position has fewer top-end stars that we want to roster on name recognition alone, though there are a several players of that caliber available. We should utilize the shooting guard spot as a place to roster some value in many of our constructions tonight given the array of inexpensive and mid-range options available. DraftKings players can add Garrison Mathews, Alex Caruso, Joe Harris, Josh Richardson, Irving and Schroder, among others, to the position.
James Harden ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) is a point guard on DraftKings and a shooting guard on FanDuel. Either way, he is one of the top plays on the board on both sites. Harden leads the entire slate on FanDuel with a massive optimal-lineup rate on the boom/bust tool and is in the top handful of players at any position on DraftKings. He should be rostered frequently and makes a fantastic spend-up option for the same reasons as Irving, namely the absence of Durant. Without Durant and traded players on the court, Harden has 1.37 fantasy points per minute in 807 minutes since joining the Nets. He is a rock solid option for production and upside, assuming we can make the massive salary requirement work, which his optimal-lineup rates tell us is in play.
Bradley Beal ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) is the other half of Washington’s offense and is leading the NBA in scoring. That doesn’t translate to being the league leader in NBA DFS points, but Beal is always a strong option from the lower end of the top salary tier. He has produced 1.33 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season and carries massive upside going into any game. In what should be a wide open contest with All-Star Game caliber defense, there should be ample opportunity for Beal to blast through his ceiling score. He is a tremendous upside play on the slate with that many points available in his game.
Zach LaVine ($8,500 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) already brings us toward the bottom of our most relevant star players at the position. LaVine is having an excellent season scoring the basketball. He has a 28.5 point per game scoring average on 29.9% usage in 35.5 minutes per game. LaVine ranks eighth in the league with a 66.0% true shooting percentage, providing excellent efficient scoring for his team. Over the course of the season, he has contributed a 25.5% assist share and a 15.9% rebounding rate, adding minor bonuses to his fantasy point production. In afternoon projections, LaVine is trending toward being under-owned. He has a strong leverage score on both sites in the boom/bust tool and should be rostered ahead of where the field is getting him unless we get late news.
Collin Sexton ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) lands a few pegs down the board from LaVine in terms of the frequency with which he will appear optimal on FanDuel, while he has a far stronger mark on DraftKings given his multi-positional utility. Sexton has 0.95 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, with a 35.5 minute projection from Awesemo he should have plenty of opportunity to at least meet his projection, with some potential to exceed it. Sexton has a 23.9 real points per game scoring average in 36 minutes, shooting 38.2% from 3 and adds a 24.3% assist share. He can provide a reasonable fantasy point scoring outing to pad lineups but is more mix-in than mandatory.
Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) should see significant opportunity with the absence of James hamstringing the Lakers. Horton-Tucker has been a curiosity for NBA DFS players all season long, when he sees opportunity he has produced, putting up 0.93 fantasy points per minute across all situations. In 265 minutes without James and Davis on the floor, Horton-Tucker’s production leaps skyward to 1.18 fantasy points per minute, making him a hyper-relevant option at his low salary. This is a play worth watching in the leverage and ownership metrics, Horton-Tucker appears to be one of the fundamental value building blocks for tonight’s slate but is not getting that sort of ownership attention. He will be popular, but not exceedingly so, if the current projections hold. This makes him very interesting at a position from which we would like to extract value on this slate.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) is a wildly different play from site to site. At a salary $1,500 higher against a lower salary cap, Hardaway is off the board as anything other than a mix and match option on DraftKings. On FanDuel however, he is very much in play from only $700 over the minimum. Hardaway may be unreliable, but he is simply a better player than that, we can look to his 0.81 fantasy points per minute for evidence of that fact. Given the low cost on the blue site, Hardaway has the opportunity to provide value and utility to lineup constructions. If the decision is between Hardaway and Horton-Tucker on FanDuel, the salary and advanced metrics slightly prefer Horton-Tucker.
Devin Booker ($7,800 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) lands in the mid-range of shooting guard options tonight and is priced appropriately for the production we have gotten from him through most of the season. Booker’s rates have jumped over the team’s most recent 10 games, but between the star-level plays above him and the value available beneath him, he is simply an awkward fit at his salary on tonight’s daily fantasy basketball slate. Booker’s scoring average has climbed from 25.1 for the season to 26.4 over the past 10 games, while he has seen an uptick from 31.4% usage to 34.4% in the same stretch. Booker is clearly part of his team’s plans, and they have a very easy looking matchup on the board tonight. He could provide some sneaky utility and upside, but managing exposures and expectations will be important on both sites.
Fred VanVleet ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) is in the same trio of players that mired down the Lowry upside as discussed in the point guard section. VanVleet has had a great year but is priced appropriately on both sites tonight, while the public is getting to him a bit too much. He has 1.10 fantasy points per minute through the season, up from his 1.02 mark across all of last year, and there is no reason to think he is incapable of an upside game. The only issue is the unpredictable nature of the team’s fantasy point scoring distribution, and a lack of salary or leverage advantage on the slate. VanVleet is not a mistake in this one, but he is also not a go-to option, mixing him into lineups at or around the public’s mark should be enough.
C.J. McCollum ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) has been back from injury for three games, immediately returning to a 32.8% usage mark. He has put up an average of 17.7 real points over the stretch, seeing just 24.8 minutes per game, though he hit the 27-minute mark in their most recent contest. McCollum has added a 27.6% assist share and 14.5% rebounding rate while shooting 46.2% from beyond the 3-point line since the return. He has more relevance for a bit of a discount and through gaining positional flexibility on DraftKings, as an overpriced (for the situation) shooting guard on FanDuel, he is less necessary.
Additional values at the position include Alec Burks who will see some ball-handling duties and maintain a prominent role for the Knicks at a solid price, more so depending on the availability of the team’s point guards; Josh Jackson who produces 1.00 fantasy points per minute this season and should see quality run for Detroit; and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who picks up value filling the void for the Lakers at a very low salary on both sites.
Small Forward
The three is the weakest position on the board on both sites tonight. We have role players and value names up and down the board and very few standout stars of note. On DraftKings players can roster several additional options, including Horton-Tucker, Jerami Grant, Jackson, Simmons, Kyle Kuzma, Hardaway and Burks, making it a much more flexible and interesting position on that site.
Saddiq Bey ($5,600 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) is another player who comes up very differently from site-to-site on tonight’s daily fantasy basketball slate. He has embraced his opportunity on a changing Pistons squad. He is second on the team in real life point scoring over the last 10 games, putting up a 14.3 average in his 30.9 minutes per game. Bey requires just 17.3% of the team’s usage to get to that mark, a model of efficiency. What he has struggled with is adding value in ancillary categories, Bey has just a 17.2% rebounding share and a 9.3% assist rate over that stretch, adding one stock per game. At a dead position on the FanDuel slate, Bey should provide plenty of utility and value, and the public is slightly underweight on him in early projections. He will not have to do much beyond expectation to hit a ceiling score for us on the blue site. He is far less relevant for the $1,300 more that we need to spend on DraftKings, though he is not entirely off the board given his positional flexibility. Bey remains an option by optimal-lineup rate, and the salary is scaring the public off him to a sub-10% ownership mark.
Rui Hachimura ($5,800 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) is only available at power forward or center on DraftKings, but is a small forward on FanDuel, where he ranks out best. Hachimura has 0.78 fantasy points per minute for the season but is capable of producing outlier games in the right situation. Typically, that situation is a game without the likes of Beal and/or Westbrook, both of whom will be on the court tonight. Hachimura is likely in-line for his standard production tonight, but even that will put him among the leading options at the position. He stands out more against a lower salary and for the positional eligibility on FanDuel, and simply compares favorably to most other options at small forward. On DraftKings he is more of a mix and match option, considering the other available plays at each position.
R.J. Barrett ($6,800 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) is the second banana for the Knicks and has begun to improve in some areas of his game. Barrett has increased his 3-point shooting percentage from a woeful 32.0% last season to a 35.5% mark this year, still below where it needs to be but trending in the right direction. That mark also includes a Death Valley stretch in which Barrett went 0-24 from behind the 3-point line earlier in the season. Overall he has a 52.9% true shooting percentage that also needs improvement, and he requires all the minutes he can get to produce in real ways. For the season, Barrett contributes an 18.5% rebounding share and a 19.4% assist rate, he is a willing rebounder and passer, but the team handles those skills in other ways as well, with Julius Randle‘s existence leaping to mind. Ultimately, Barrett’s viability for NBA DFS play is determined by his salary and popularity, both of which are down for this slate. He is another player who appears to have more usefulness on FanDuel, where he is $900 less expensive. He is barely on the board at his DraftKings price and without positional flexibility.
Joe Harris ($5,200 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) will be relevant for the Nets in the wide open game that we have touched on several times. Harris is an excellent shooter, ranking third in the league with a 68.9% true shooting percentage and making 48.8% of his 3-point attempts. Harris sees just 15.6% of the team’s usage, with Harden and Irving soaking up significant shares on their own, but he makes the most of it with that shooting ability and puts up 0.74 fantasy points per minute. When his shot isn’t falling, Harris is going to be challenged to make value, he has just a 12.5% rebounding share and a 9.6% assist percentage. For the cost, Harris will be in play on both sites, the lower mark on FanDuel makes him more relevant and popular on the blue site. On DraftKings the ability to move him between guard and forward positions has significant utility on the slate, keeping him a very relevant play.
Larry Nance Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) is in line to see significant run in the Cavaliers rotation, Awesemo has him projected for more than 33 minutes given the absences of several key frontcourt teammates. Nance has produced a disappointing 0.84 fantasy points per minute in limited action this season. Since returning four games ago, Nance has seen increasing minutes, jumping from 28 in the first game and 25 in the second all the way to a whopping 36.3 in the team’s most recent contest (37.3 the game before). Nance has averaged 10.8 real points in what adds up to a 33.4 minute average, contributing 6.8 rebounds (24.3%) and 2.5 assists (17.5%), as well as 2.6 stocks per game over the stretch. At a thin position, Nance makes plenty of sense on both sites, he will be owned, but not in excessive amounts, getting to him beyond the public is in consideration, depending on how things look heading into lock.
O.G. Anunoby ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) has returned to his role with the Raptors and should be in line for around Awesemo’s 31 minute projection. He has 0.86 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, slightly less might be a reasonable expectation for him in the fully healthy Raptors rotation. Anunoby averages 13.8 real points in 33.5 minutes per game for the season, needing just 16.4% of the Raptors’ usage, making him a nice efficient option to play alongside the team’s trio of second-tier stars. Anunoby adds a 19.5% rebounding share but just a 9.1% assist percentage, meaning he will need to clean the glass effectively to hit an upside score for us tonight. He is not atop the board on either site and is drawing a bit too much ownership, but rostering Anunoby slightly less than the field, while making sure to still get to him, is probably the best approach.
Similarly ranked players can be found down the positional salary spectrum. These include additional value plays like Mikal Bridges who should have no problems racking up fantasy points with his 0.85 per-minute mark against a weakened Lakers team that will be without their talent tonight; Richardson should see his typical role in the Mavericks rotation in the second-highest total game of the night; and Mathews costs the flat-minimum on FanDuel and just $3,400 on DraftKings in that massive total Washington vs Brooklyn game, making him interesting as a bit of a salary punt who could produce some l0w-cost upside in the right outcome, while adding small forward eligibility on DraftKings, where he is more relevant.
Power Forward
Power forward is another position with limited star power on tonight’s slate. There are several big names, but the standout daily fantasy basketball plays are primarily in the value to mid-range tier. DraftKings players add the ability to roster Hachimura, Nance, Bey, Anunoby and Carmelo Anthony at the position.
Lauri Markkanen ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) has missed significant portions of the Bulls’ season so far. Since returning to the rotation six games ago, he has demonstrated how important he is to the team, putting up 16.3 real points in 31.2 minutes per game, second on the team to LaVine’s 27.5 points per game. Markkanen needs just 19.5% of the team’s usage to get to that mark, leaving room for several other players in the rotation to shine alongside him. Where he disappoints for a big man, across that recent stretch, is in his meager 17.6% rebounding share, while his 6.0% assist rate is lowly for anyone. Markkanen is yet to return to his full price on either site, leaving him a strong value consideration on both for tonight’s NBA DFS action. On FanDuel he will be under-owned by comparison to his optimal-lineup rate on the boom/bust tool, making him the standout play at the position. On DraftKings he is equally valuable, though he will be more popular and provide less leverage against the field.
Julius Randle ($10,000 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel) is having a breakout season by any measure. Coming into the year burdened by an “overrated at best” tag, Randle has shown tremendous growth in every category, and has delivered us into the unanticipated days of $10,000 Julius Randle. He is the primary star at power forward tonight and, while it is uncomfortable to think of rostering him at a superstar salary, his 1.23 fantasy points per minute mark for the year helps to justify the play. His DraftKings salary has him a few pegs down the optimal-lineup rate board from some of his peers, and his boom-score probability in our tool is suppressed, but if we can spend the money at the position, Randle will provide a modicum of potential upside and leverage. He is far more interesting on FanDuel, where he is less expensive with more money to spend, coming up optimal nearly 20% of the time at positive leverage.
Jerami Grant ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is Mr. SuperDraft. Always at too high a multiplier on that site, Grant has been a go-to option all season. For the two bigger sites, he has been very much in play, depending on his salary ask and some positional comparisons from slate to slate. Grant has delivered more than promised for the Pistons, coming in as the team’s primary weapon and putting up 1.04 fantasy points per minute across a tumultuous season in Detroit. Without former Pistons Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin, Grant has led the team in usage all year at 27.9%, with a 54.9% true-shooting mark, though his overall production slips to 1.00 fantasy points per minute in the 725 minute sample. Still, Grant lands at the top of the positional board on FanDuel and close to it on DraftKings; he will be very relevant for this slate with his solidly mid-range pricing, which is probably too low on both sites. He has both upside and utility on DraftKings and looks like the strongest option for a power forward on FanDuel.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) gains center eligibility on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting consideration. He is among the optimal lineup leaders on both sites at power forward, his projections a product of his productive season when healthy. Porzingis has 1.20 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, and the Mavericks’ big man should see a slight uptick to around 1.23 again with Willie Cauley-Stein and James Johnson out. Porzingis is a silky smooth shooter, with a 58.4% true shooting percentage and 36.6% rate from beyond the 3-point line. As the other highly-ranked star caliber player, Porzingis should be justifiably popular on tonight’s slate. He has slightly negative leverage scores on the boom/bust tool on both sites, but if we aren’t costing ourselves good plays at other positions, he is a fine pay-up option where we know we are playing something chalky. Work him into lineups while keeping an eye on making sure that overall combinations of players are differentiated.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,600 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) is a mid-range option at the position who would look far better if he weren’t priced somewhat appropriately for the situation. Already seeing an uptick in minutes and usage in recent weeks, Kuzma now will benefit from the absence of LeBron James, making him one of few options available to the Lakers. He has produced 0.88 fantasy points per minute mark across all situations, though that steps up slightly to 0.90 without James and Davis on the floor. Kuzma has a 54.8% true shooting mark and a 14.0% rebounding share, both of which could improve to make him more valuable. Ultimately, he is in play on both sites, though he is over-exposed in public lineups on FanDuel and without much upside on DraftKings. We can find better options and safely undercut the field on his exposure tonight.
Tobias Harris ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) will explode up the board if we find out that Simmons is out again tonight. Without both Simmons and center Embiid, Harris has a monster 1.33 fantasy points per minute, making him instantly one of the best plays on the slate. Just last night, we saw Harris produce 29 real points to go with 10 rebounds and eight assists, in just 30.3 minutes of action. Even if Simmons plays, Harris is a strong play. Without Embiid, but playing alongside Simmons, Harris averages 1.29 fantasy points per minute. He is appropriately priced for the latter situation, reducing his overall upside and utility in the case that Simmons plays, but not taking him off the board by any means. On FanDuel Harris will be popular, coming up with a concerningly negative leverage score. This will be less of a worry if he is the primary option, but alongside Simmons it begins to suggest we can find other options. On DraftKings Harris does not have that concern, he is not nearly as popular for a higher price and can be considered a solid mix and match option with Simmons on, and a strong play with Simmons skipping the game.
Thaddeus Young ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has seen his salary floating in the mid-to-high $6,000s for several weeks now, keeping him in the mid-range of potential plays on seemingly a daily basis. When his teammates are absent, Young gains some value, but in this situation his overall upside could be limited. Young has retained his 24.4% usage share in the face of Markkanen’s return six games ago, though the mark drops slightly in more recent games. He is third on the team in real points per game, putting up 13.5 in just 24.4 minutes across the sample, while adding impressive 36.2% assist and 38.4% rebounding percentages. Young is on the board, but probably a bit too expensive on FanDuel, while he is well-priced and interesting for ownership, but not because of a massive probability of upside, on the DraftKings slate.
Pascal Siakam ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) is another Raptors player caught in the three-man vortex of fantasy point unpredictability. He projects as a decent option for the salary and will be slightly under-owned by the public on both sites. The matchup against the Cavaliers should be interesting given that team’s depleted frontcourt. Siakam has a chance to stand out and is priced as something of a midrange value on the DraftKings slate, where he adds positional utility with center eligibility. Siakam averages 1.11 fantasy points per minute and is in line for a 32-minute projection from Awesemo, there is something under the radar to consider about the Siakam play tonight.
Primary among our additional values at the position is Maxi Kleber, who will see starter’s minutes with Cauley-Stein and Johnson sitting out. Kleber has 0.71 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. The issue with Kleber is that his rate drops to 0.67 points per minute, when he sees just 10.1% usage playing alongside better options. Other also-rans include Jae Crowder, who can score fantasy points in myriad ways and is in play when he is underpriced and playing against replacement level players; Dario Saric, who is an inexpensive source of potential lineup differentiation, but not much more; and Markieff Morris, who could see an uptick in role overall given the personnel disaster faced by the Lakers.
Center
Center is always a critical NBA DFS position, tonight should be no different. On DraftKings we add the ability to roster a number of interesting players at the position, making it more robust than on the blue site, while spreading some of the optimal lineup numbers more liberally. Players who gain center eligibility across sites include Porzingis, Randle, Hachimura, Kleber, Siakam, Saric, Thaddeus Young and Morris — which is essentially the entire previous section.
Jarrett Allen ($7,500 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) is by far the leading center option on FanDuel, and one of the top options on DraftKings. Allen is dramatically underpriced on the blue site, thrusting him into the optimal lineup in more than 30% of Awesemo’s simulations on the singular center site. He is more appropriately priced on DraftKings, though he still has strong value given the 1.14 fantasy points per minute he has for the season and in this specific situation. Allen should see plenty of opportunity to create his own upside as the team’s primary rebounder, he has a 38.4% share across all situations, which jumps when we remove several of the absent big men. Allen is a go-to option on FanDuel, despite his popularity and he should be rostered frequently across sites given the upside.
Dwight Howard ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) saw a bit of a bump in price for the role that he receives when superstar Embiid is out. Howard comes in producing 1.18 fantasy points per minute in games without Embiid on the floor, making him a very relevant mid-range value play on the slate. When Simmons also sits, Howard takes another small step forward to 1.22 fantasy points per minute. In either situation he should be a strong consideration for center shares. Howard is one of four centers on FanDuel who consume a total of 61.6% of the optimal lineup shares. While Allen makes up a full 31.5% of that mark, Howard comes in second and must be rostered. On DraftKings he is in consideration but is less optimal and similarly popular.
Enes Kanter ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) is another center in that optimal group on FanDuel, though he ranks third on the list and is not markedly different than Alex Len‘s 6.9% mark which ranks fifth and outside of that primary group. Kanter is a low post machine, grabbing 40% of the team’s rebounds, with a whopping 60% of their offensive boards. He is a minor facilitator, with just a 10.5% assist share, but requires only 17% usage to get to his 12.1 real points per game. Kanter is an underrated option for real life NBA action, for daily fantasy basketball purposes, however, he seems appropriately priced. He carries upside and a strong probability of landing near his median projection at worst, but he does not have the explosive potential that Allen carries into tonight.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is the other true NBA player in the Lakers’ starting rotation tonight. In 270 minutes without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Harrell leads the team with 1.36 fantasy points per minute, an excellent mark that puts him among the top per-minute options on the board. If Harrell is able to crack the 29-minute projection that Awesemo currently has for him, his path to upside is relatively clear. He has a quality optimal-lineup rate and reasonable boom-score probability on both sites given his 28.9% usage rate in the situation, and ability to produce in other ways. Still, the public is very much on the Lakers center, he is negatively leveraged on both sites tonight, more so on DraftKings, where the public is nearly doubling the frequency with which we find him optimal in simulations on the boom/bust tool. Harrell has the opportunity to produce but could make for a good undercut of the public given their exuberance for the play.
Alex Len ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is the flat minimum on the blue site and inexpensive on the other. He is not an extreme standout option, but he does pick up some utility for his 21-minute projection for the night. That utility is entirely based on his low cost and limited public ownership, this is not a play to get too over the top with, though he does have a solid 1.01 fantasy points per minute and will see minutes in the ridiculously high totaled game of the night. Len could be sneaky, but don’t get carried away.
Deandre Ayton ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) is another player who should be able to do whatever he wants against a limited Lakers team. Ayton is appropriately priced on FanDuel, where his 1.07 fantasy points per minute are somewhat unremarkable among some of his peers. Ayton gains ground on DraftKings, where he costs far less but will be a bit more popular. Ayton averages just 14.2 real points in his 30.3 minutes per game, needing 18.8% of the usage to get there. He stands out for his 40.7% rebounding share, 61.2% on the offensive end, where he can generate some easy buckets. Ayton’s popularity should keep our exposures to him in check, but he is fine as a mix-in option, perhaps a bit more on DraftKings.
Additional values in the middle come in the forms of Mason Plumlee, who has been reliable through the season but carries just a 25.6 minute projection against a 1.09 per-minute mark; Nerlens Noel who is not a standout at anything, but is inexpensive and under-owned for his 0.92 fantasy points per minutes, which could be impacted by the potential return of Mitchell Robinson, who is not truly on the board for either site; Wendell Carter has some usefulness on DraftKings, but is a very limited option who is basically out of play on FanDuel; and Chris Boucher who will probably see 26 minutes and produce given his 1.26 fantasy points per minute, but could also see just 20 minutes and underwhelm, in the Raptors somewhat unpredictable rotation.
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