This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | March 15
Update 1: I added my thoughts on Rodney McGruder, Alec Burks and Mikal Bridges. None of these players stood out to me on my first walk through of the slate but, after building some DraftKings lineups, it seems like they will be useful pieces to fill out some lineups.
Point Guard
James Harden ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,300 SG FanDuel) takes on the Knicks, who have been one of the least appealing matchups in DFS this season. The Knicks have dropped off a bit defensively recently, however, as they only rank 17th in defensive rating over the last month (11 games). They are also 20th in pace over that time, which is an upgrade from being the slowest team in the league by a wide margin for most of the season. Harden has been excellent for the Nets and is playing a ton of minutes as well. He has now played 13 games without Kevin Durant and with Kyrie Irving and he has averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute and 37.9 minutes per game.
Luka Doncic ($10,600 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) faces a Clippers team that was blown out by the Pelicans last night. The Clippers rank 25th in defensive rating over the last month and they are in the middle of the pack in pace. Doncic has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.9 percent usage rate, 12.9 percent rebounding rate and 46.6 percent assist rate in 21 games played with Kristaps Porzingis active this season.
Russell Westbrook ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) had a monster game against the Bucks on Saturday as he scored 42 points with 12 assists and 10 rebounds. He’s always capable of posting a huge game, but his chances of doing so decrease tonight as Bradley Beal isn’t on the injury report after sitting out of Saturday’s game. Westbrook has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute in 28 games played with Beal this season compared to 1.77 DraftKings points per minute in two games without him and 1.56 DraftKings points per minute without him on the floor overall. Westbrook is still a viable tournament option since his increased salary should lower his ownership and he is always capable of being a top scorer on the slate, but Doncic and Harden both grade out as better top-end options in terms of likelihood of success.
Stephen Curry ($10,000 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) is similar to Westbrook in that he has a huge ceiling but he doesn’t produce at quite as high a rate as players priced a little bit higher than him. Curry has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute and 34 minutes per game this season. He is more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings for a difficult matchup with the Lakers.
De’Aaron Fox ($9,100 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) continues to play huge minutes for the Kings as he played another 40.2 minutes against the Hawks on Saturday. Typically, we can expect about 38 minutes from Fox in competitive games. Tonight, he faces a Charlotte team that ranks in the middle of the pack defensively over the last month but is fourth in pace. Fox should benefit from the pace and he has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute overall this season.
Delon Wright ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) played 31.4 minutes against Brooklyn on Saturday and I expect that we will see him play 30-32 minutes again tonight against the Spurs. The Pistons have one of the lowest implied totals on the slate and this isn’t an appealing matchup, but Wright has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute in eight games without either of Blake Griffin or Derrick Rose this season so he projects as a decent mid-range value.
Immanuel Quickley ($5,600 DraftKings/$4,600 SG FanDuel) stands out as a particularly strong option on FanDuel but he looks like a good play on DraftKings as well. It remains to be seen what Tom Thibodeau’s starting lineup will look like tonight with Elfrid Payton doubtful and Rose out. Frank Ntilikina started ahead of Quickley on Saturday, but Quickley started the second half and ended up playing 33.1 minutes. I would prefer that he get the start, but he has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season so he should be able to justify his salary one way or the other.
Chris Paul ($7,800 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is a much stronger play on FanDuel than on DraftKings tonight against Memphis. The Grizzlies have been the fourth-most efficient defense over the last month but they have also played at the fifth-fastest pace. Paul has averaged 1.16 FanDuel points per minute and 31.8 minutes per game in 36 games played alongside Devin Booker this season.
Jrue Holiday ($6,500 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) also looks like an underpriced option on FanDuel tonight against the Wizards. Holiday has averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute in 27 games played with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton active this season. He started and played 32.2 minutes against Washington on Saturday so he is back to full strength in terms of playing time. He also has additional upside from defensive stats tonight as Westbrook is the most turnover prone guard in the league and Holiday is likely to benefit.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden, Luka Doncic, De’Aaron Fox, Immanuel Quickley
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Jrue Holiday
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Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,400 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel) isn’t on the injury report tonight so he should be good to go. Beal, like Westbrook, produces at a lower rate when both players are active. Unlike Westbrook, especially on DraftKings, Beal isn’t particularly expensive. Beal has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute and 35.4 minutes per game in the 28 games that he has played with Westbrook this season. Shooting guard is a thin position on DraftKings tonight and Beal offers as high a ceiling as anyone available.
Paul George ($8,200 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) was extremely disappointing last night in a good matchup against the Pelicans but he is favorably priced again tonight against Dallas. The Mavericks are third in defensive rating and 29th in pace over the last month so the matchup doesn’t look as good as it did last night, but George is still a highly productive player and a bit underpriced. For the season, George has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute and 33.2 minutes per game in 26 games played with Kawhi Leonard.
Devin Booker ($8,000 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) hasn’t been as productive a fantasy option with Chris Paul this season but his salary also reflects that. Booker has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.9 percent usage rate and 21.3 percent assist rate in 32 games played with Paul.
Derrick White ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,300 PG FanDuel) was extremely disappointing in his first two games back in the lineup before pouring on 41 DraftKings points in 25 minutes against Philadelphia yesterday. The truth lies somewhere in the middle as White isn’t likely to replicate his 4-block, 2-steal performance from yesterday any time soon. Still, he has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season and should see 28 to 30 minutes if tonight’s game against the Pistons is competitive.
Caris LeVert ($7,000 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) once again offers a massive pricing disparity between DraftKings and FanDuel. LeVert played 26.9 minutes in his return to the lineup on Saturday and it is good to see that he is able to play relatively big minutes out of the gate. LeVert had a 31.7 percent usage rate and got up 14 field goal attempts despite playing all of his minutes alongside Domantas Sabonis. LeVert’s DraftKings’ salary is a tough ask at this point, but he is probably the easiest play on the entire slate on FanDuel.
Rodney McGruder ($3,400 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) played about 28 minutes in Detroit’s last game and he should have an opportunity for extended minutes again tonight with Hamidou Diallo out and Wayne Ellington doubtful. Ellington started and played 26.2 minutes last game, so there are plenty of minutes available for McGruder tonight. McGruder has a low floor in a tough matchup as he has only averaged 0.63 DraftKings points per minute in his career, but the shooting guard position is a difficult one to fill on DraftKings so it is a reasonable option to use McGruder’s salary in order to be able to pay up elsewhere.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal, Paul George, Derrick White, Rodney McGruder
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Harden, Immanuel Quickley, Paul George, Caris LeVert
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/15/2021″ team=”Lakers”]
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,300 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) is almost always a strong option and tonight is no exception. James isn’t the best per-minute producer in his price tier but he offers a high floor. Anthony Davis remains out tonight and James has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute and 35.1 minutes per game in 14 games played without Davis this season.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,900 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) doesn’t grade out as a top point-per-dollar option tonight against Dallas but he does offer a high ceiling for a reasonable price tag. Leonard has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute and 34.2 minutes per game in the 26 games that he has played with George active this season.
Khris Middleton ($8,100 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) stands out as a particularly strong option on FanDuel. He takes on a Washington team that has played at the fastest pace all season long and has also been one of the least efficient defenses in the league. Middleton has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute and 32.1 minutes per game in 27 games played with both of Antetokounmpo and Holiday active this season.
Gordon Hayward ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is one of the top small forward options on both sites. Hayward was on his way to a strong game against the Raptors on Saturday but didn’t play in the fourth quarter of a blowout. He has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute and 34.7 minutes per game this season. He has one of the most favorable matchups possible as he takes on a Sacramento team that has allowed almost 3.5 more points per 100 possessions over the last month than the next worst team and also ranks in the top half of the league in pace.
Keldon Johnson ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) has been absolutely awful in his recent games, but he is inexpensive at a relatively weak position. His recent performances should keep his ownership in check. Overall this season, Johnson has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute so I expect his production to increase sooner than later. We should also see additional playing time because Johnson has been limited by foul trouble and blowouts recently.
Mikal Bridges ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling as he has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with a 15.2 percent usage percentage in the games that he has played with Paul and Booker active this season. He has averaged 32.3 minutes per game, however, and often gives us 34-plus minutes in competitive games. Small forward isn’t a deep position tonight, so saving some money and plugging in someone who will most likely play 32 to 35 minutes on a team with a 117 point implied total isn’t a bad strategy.
Alec Burks ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,100 SG FanDuel) is a risky option but he offers a relatively high ceiling for his salary. With Derrick Rose and Austin Rivers out and Elfrid Payton doubtful, the Knicks will need ball-handlers to soak up additional minutes tonight against the Nets. Burks played 27.2 minutes under these conditions last game and I think there is a good chance that we see similar playing time tonight. The one concern that I have is Burks closed the first half last game but then only played about 10 minutes in the second half. I think there is a low floor here but, assuming he plays well, he should see additional minutes again tonight and he has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James, Gordon Hayward
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James, Khris Middleton, Gordon Hayward
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel) is one of the top plays on the slate as he gets a great matchup against the Wizards. He started slowly in this matchup on Saturday but ended up posting a triple double with 33 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. We should expect similar production tonight against a fast-paced Washington team that struggles to rebound or defend.
Julius Randle ($9,800 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) leads the Knicks with 36.6 minutes per game this season. He has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.5 percent usage rate, 16.1 percent rebounding rate and 26.5 percent assist rate. The Nets have improved their defense recently and have also been playing at a slower pace, so the matchup may not be as strong as it was a couple of weeks ago but Randle still offers plenty of upside in tournaments given his role in the Knicks’ offense and his playing time.
Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) is similar to Randle in that he plays huge minutes and contributes in every DFS category. He has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute and 36.6 minutes per game this season. We could see his average production decrease somewhat now that LeVert is in the starting lineup, but Sabonis’ production wasn’t hurt much playing alongside Victor Oladipo earlier this season. I expect him to his maintain per-minute rates going forward.
Jerami Grant ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) isn’t in an exciting matchup against a slow-paced San Antonio team that defends relatively well. The power forward position is weak, however, so Grant stands out as one of the highest-upside options in the middle of the pricing spectrum. Grant played 35.6 minutes in Detroit’s most recent game and has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute and 36.9 minutes per game in 12 games played without Griffin or Rose this season.
Bobby Portis ($4,700 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is a volatile option given his inconsistent playing time. We should expect 20 to 22 minutes from Portis, but the matchup against the Wizards should allow him to produce at an above-average rate. Portis has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season and he looks especially enticing on FanDuel where we need to roster two players at this weak position.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jerami Grant, Bobby Portis
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) is the clear top option at center if you can find the salary to fit him into your lineups. Jokic has been one of the best DFS producers this season with 1.66 DraftKings points per minute and 35.9 minutes per game. There isn’t much more to say other than that he is a great option every time he plays.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is always an interesting target in tournaments because he offers excellent per-minute production. Valanciunas has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 22 games played with Ja Morant this season which gives him a higher ceiling than most similarly priced center options. He has averaged 28.6 minutes per game in those games, but he has the potential to play 30-plus minutes in competitive games. The matchup isn’t great for Valanciunas as Phoenix has been one of the more efficient defenses in the league this season and they’ve allowed the 10th fewest total rebounds per game over the last month.
Richaun Holmes ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) played about 35 minutes in his last game and has now averaged 32.2 minutes per game in 15 games played without Hassan Whiteside this season. Holmes has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute in those games. He looks like a strong mid-range center option tonight against Charlotte.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) has been volatile this season, even when Davis is out, but he seems to have found his rhythm with back-to-back big performances in 33 and 32 minutes against the Kings and the Pacers. Harrell takes on a relatively small Golden State frontcourt tonight, which should help him stay on the floor. He has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute and 23.5 minutes per game in 14 games without Davis and with James, so the playing time is the only real question mark.
Cody Zeller ($4,900 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) played 22.9 minutes in Charlotte’s blowout win over Toronto on Saturday after playing about 26 minutes in his previous game. Zeller has been a productive fantasy option this season, averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 17 starts. He has a strong matchup against the Kings and offers a high ceiling at his inexpensive price tag.
DeAndre Jordan ($5,300 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) played about 29 minutes in Brooklyn’s last game and he has averaged 26 minutes per game in 12 games played without Durant and with Harden and Jeff Green active. Jordan has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in those games and he has the size advantage against the Knicks’ current frontcourt.
Alex Len ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) started against Milwaukee on Saturday and played about 32 minutes. It is always risky to trust a Washington center since Scott Brooks’ rotation is so inconsistent, but Len is a strong per-minute producer so he grades out as a good value if he starts despite the risk. Len has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 52 minutes alongside both of Beal and Westbrook this season and 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 317 total minutes played with the Wizards.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Richaun Holmes, Montrezl Harrell
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Montrezl Harrell, Cody Zeller, DeAndre Jordan
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