This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | March 16
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($10,800 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel) has a good matchup against the Pelicans, who are 13th in pace and 28th in defensive rating over the last month. The problem is that C.J. McCollum is expected to return to the lineup and Lillard’s price is as high as we have seen it. Lillard has a massive ceiling with or without McCollum, but he has only averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in 75 games played with McCollum since the start of last season compared to 1.50 DraftKings points per minute in 28 games played without McCollum.
Trae Young ($10,200 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) takes on the Rockets tonight. Houston has allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions over the last month while playing at the league’s fifth-fastest pace. We can expect about 34 minutes out of Young tonight if the game is competitive and he has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.6 percent usage rate and 45.1 percent assist rate this season. He is an especially strong option on FanDuel tonight.
Ben Simmons ($9,000 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Knicks, though New York has played a bit faster and worse defensively recently than they did at the start of the season and they are on a back-to-back. Joel Embiid is listed as out for tonight’s game, so it should open up more offensively for Simmons. In six games without Embiid this season, Simmons has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.2 percent usage rate, 13.7 percent rebounding rate and 36.7 percent assist rate. In the 26 games that he has played with Embiid active, Simmons has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.6 percent usage rate, 12.6 percent rebounding rate and 32.7 percent assist rate.
Kevin Porter Jr. ($7,000 DraftKings/$6,000 SF FanDuel) has quickly become an expensive option but there is still some upside here. Porter didn’t play in the fourth quarter of Houston’s blowout loss to the Celtics on Sunday but he still finished the game with 30 minutes played through three quarters. In the three games that he has played since joining the Rockets, Porter has played 29, 38 and 30 minutes. He looked well on his way to 36-plus minutes again in the most recent game had it been competitive. He has a 27.7 percent usage rate and 42.7 percent assist rate through his first three games and has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. In the two games that he has played with Victor Oladipo, he has a 22.4 percent usage rate and 43.5 percent assist rate and has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. There is certainly risk at his salary, but this is a talented player who is locked into a lot of playing time on this version of the Rockets.
Ricky Rubio ($5,900 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Lakers and hasn’t seen quite the boost in playing time that some people were hoping for with D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jordan McLaughlin all sidelined. That said, we can still expect 28 to 30 minutes from Rubio and he is still reasonably priced. Rubio has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute with a 17.2 percent usage rate and 33.1 percent assist rate in the six games that he has played with Karl-Anthony Towns active and Russell and Beasley inactive this season. He doesn’t look like a core piece to build around, but he is a viable option as the final piece of a lineup.
Tomas Satoransky ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) started in place of Coby White last game and played 25.6 minutes (including a little over a minute of garbage time). I haven’t seen anything on Chicago’s lineup tonight, but they easily won the game over the Raptors so I am assuming they will stick with the same lineup. Satoransky has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 0.88 DraftKings points per minute when he shares the floor with Zach LaVine. Assuming he remains in the starting lineup, he projects as a strong point-per-dollar value. He will most likely be easier to roster on DraftKings than FanDuel because the opportunity cost is lower.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Ben Simmons, Kevin Porter Jr., Tomas Satoransky
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young, Ben Simmons, Ricky Rubio
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Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) is an interesting tournament option as his salary has decreased slightly and the shooting guard position isn’t particularly deep. LaVine has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.7 percent usage rate and 24.8 percent assist rate in 17 games played with Lauri Markkanen active this season. He has averaged 34.6 minutes per game in those games and White’s move to the bench should open up additional usage for LaVine as well.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) takes on the Bulls tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute and 34 minutes per game this season. He has a 27.9 percent usage rate and 32 percent assist rate. He is an especially strong option on FanDuel at his relatively inexpensive salary.
Victor Oladipo ($8,300 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) takes on the Atlanta Hawks with John Wall out once again. Oladipo has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute and 32.8 minutes per game in seven games played without Wall since joining the Rockets. He has a 34.2 percent usage rate and 31.9 percent assist rate in those games. Atlanta has played at the fourth-slowest pace over the last month, but they are also in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating over that time so it grades out as a neutral matchup for Oladipo.
Immanuel Quickley ($5,800 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) started and played 33.6 minutes without Elfrid Payton or Derrick Rose yesterday. Payton is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game and Rose is out once again. Quickley has played 352 minutes alongside Julius Randle this season and has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.6 percent usage rate and 18.8 percent assist rate. He has a tough matchup against the 76ers, but he still projects as a strong mid-range value assuming that he starts again tonight.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) takes on the Portland Trail Blazers tonight in the game with the highest total on the slate (by about 10 points). Bledsoe has averaged 28.6 minutes per game and 0.78 DraftKings points per minute over the last month. While the per-minute production isn’t appealing, this game should afford extra possessions that increase his per-minute rates. There isn’t much to like at this position for now, so Bledsoe looks like a useful value option unless more plays open up as we get closer to lock.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Victor Oladipo, Immanuel Quickley, Eric Bledsoe
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Oladipo, Immanuel Quickley, Talen Horton-Tucker (if Caruso is out)
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/16/2021″ team=”lakers”]
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) faces the Timberwolves tonight. Minnesota has played at the seventh-fastest pace over the last month and ranks 25th in defensive rating over that time. James has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute and 34.8 minutes per game in 15 games played without Anthony Davis this season. It will most likely be even easier to get James into lineups tonight than it is on most slates because there aren’t many other pay-up options.
Brandon Ingram ($8,100 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) has averaged 32.6 minutes per game over the last month, which is a couple minutes lower than his season average, but still leads the team which suggests that it could be the result of an unusual number of blowouts. I expect that we will get 34-plus minutes from Ingram as long as tonight’s game is competitive. He has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the last month with a 28 percent usage rate and 21.5 percent assist rate and has a good matchup against the Blazers.
R.J. Barrett ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) is a beneficiary of the Knicks’ depleted depth with Rose out and Payton doubtful. We can expect him to play 34-plus minutes tonight against the Sixers and he has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is a more appealing option on FanDuel since we have to roster two small forwards and don’t have multi-position eligibility to take advantage of.
Josh Hart ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) has averaged 29.6 minutes per game over the last month and his playing time should remain secure with J.J. Redick sidelined. Hart isn’t a high usage option as he only has a 15 percent usage rate over the last month but he has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute thanks for a 13.4 percent rebounding rate.
Larry Nance Jr. ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) will most likely start for the Cavaliers tonight with Kevin Love listed as doubtful and Taurean Prince out. Nance played 25.7 minutes off the bench in Cleveland’s blowout loss to Atlanta last game and he played 28.5 minutes as a starter in their blowout loss to New Orleans two games ago. There is plenty of blowout risk in this game as well, and the matchup against Miami is difficult, but I expect that we see 30-plus minutes from Nance if the Cavs are able to keep it competitive. Nance has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in 19 games started this season.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) has been extremely disappointing this season with only 0.80 DraftKings points per minute. He played about 25 minutes last game, however, with Clint Capela sidelined. If Capela returns tonight, Bogdanovic is a risky option since there are a lot of wings available on the Hawks and we can only expect 20 to 22 minutes from Bogdanovic. If Capela sits, his playing time should be more secure and I would expect 24 to 26 minutes.
Talen Horton-Tucker ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,700 SG FanDuel) will be an appealing value option if Alex Caruso is out tonight. Horton-Tucker played about 28 minutes without Caruso last night, including about 12.5 minutes in the first half. Horton-Tucker has been a productive fantasy option with 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season. The issue has been his playing time, which is why we need Caruso to be sidelined to roster Horton-Tucker.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Talen Horton-Tucker (if Caruso is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James, Brandon Ingram, Kevin Porter Jr., Bogdan Bogdanovic (if Capela is out)
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,900 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) had another monster game last night against Brooklyn. He has a more difficult matchup tonight against the 76ers, but he remains a high upside option whenever he takes the floor. For the season, Randle has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and 36.7 minutes per game. He leads the Knicks with a 27.8 percent usage rate, 16.1 percent rebounding rate and 26.6 percent assist rate.
Zion Williamson ($8,700 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) is available at a discount to Randle and he stands out as my favorite power forward option. Williamson has been a productive player all season long, but he has taken another step forward recently as he has increased his peripherals and his per-minute production. Over the first two months of the season (744 minutes played) Williamson averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.5 percent usage rate, 11.9 percent rebounding rate and 14.7 percent assist rate. Since then (461 minutes played), Williamson has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.2 percent usage rate, 12.1 percent rebounding rate and 19.3 percent assist rate. He has also been a strong offensive rebounder this season as he ranks 15th with 2.7 offensive rebounds per game. The Blazers have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game over the last month by more than 1 full rebound per game.
Tobias Harris ($8,500 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) has played six games without Embiid and with Simmons active this season. In those games, he has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.9 percent usage rate, 13.8 percent rebounding rate and 16.1 percent assist rate. Harris’s game takes a giant step forward whenever Embiid is inactive and that should be the case once again tonight. The only issue for Harris is that his salary has increased because the Sixers have been without one of their two stars so often recently, but he still is a strong option especially on FanDuel.
John Collins ($6,700 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) will stand out as a top power forward option if Capela is unable to play. Collins has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in five games without Capela this season compared to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in games that Capela has played. The matchup against the Rockets is excellent, we just need Collins to get as many minutes as possible at center to maximize his projection.
Thaddeus Young ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) replaced Wendell Carter in the starting lineup last game but he only played 22.6 minutes. There is upside for about 28 minutes from Young if he plays well, however, and he has been a strong fantasy producer this season. In 582 minutes alongside LaVine, Young has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) can be a difficult player to trust but his salary is inexpensive for the role that he has in Chicago’s offense. Markkanen has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute and 30.5 minutes per game this season. He has a 22.5 percent usage rate and 10.9 percent rebounding rate in the 17 games that he has played this season.
Isaiah Roby ($5,300 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) and Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) should offer some value tonight against Chicago. They are riskier options tonight than they were last game because the Thunder have more healthy bodies, but the frontcourt is still short-handed with Al Horford and Darius Bazley sidelined. Moses Brown started last game in place of Roby, but Roby played 33.3 minutes off the bench. Pokusevski started and played 39.1 minutes. Roby has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season while Pokusevski has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute. Playing time for almost everyone on Oklahoma City is volatile, but I expect 26 to 30 minutes from Roby and 30-plus from Pokusevski assuming that they each play reasonably well.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson, Tobias Harris, Lauri Markkanen, Aleksej Pokusevski
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson, Tobias Harris, Lauri Markkanen, Isaiah Roby, Tony Bradley
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Lakers but their interior defense isn’t quite as imposing without Davis. Towns has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute and 33.5 minutes per game in his six games without Russell or Beasley this season. Based on his production without either of them on the floor last season, I think we see Towns produce at a higher rate as we get a larger sample as well.
Clint Capela ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) is questionable after missing Atlanta’s last game. If he plays, he should be able to dominate Houston’s frontcourt. The Rockets have allowed 2.9 more total rebounds per game over the last month than the next closest team. Capela has been an excellent fantasy producer this season with 1.37 DraftKings points per minute and a 26.4 percent rebounding rate.
Enes Kanter ($7,200 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) will most likely lose usage with McCollum back in the lineup but he should continue to rebound at a high rate. He is inexpensive on FanDuel and the mid-range center options aren’t particularly strong tonight. Kanter has averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute and 30 minutes per game as a starter this season.
Tony Bradley ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,500 PF FanDuel) has started three games this season. He has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute and 19.8 minutes per game. His playing time is volatile because Dwight Howard will most likely close the game so there is a chance that we only get three stints out of Bradley. Still, he is a productive fantasy player when he is on the floor and the opportunity cost at center isn’t as high as it usually is tonight. It will be extremely easy to roster him on FanDuel where he is a minimum salary power forward. The only issue there is that he will cost you one of Harris or Williamson.
Moses Brown ($3,500 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) started in place of Horford last game and played 24.2 minutes. Assuming that he starts again tonight, I expect that we get another 24 to 26 minutes from Brown. He hasn’t played many minutes in the NBA, but he has been a productive player when he has been on the floor. He has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in 101 minutes this season, including 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in 28 minutes alongside Gilgeous-Alexander. For his career, Brown has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in 134 minutes played.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Clint Capela, Tony Bradley, Moses Brown
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Clint Capela, Enes Kanter, Moses Brown
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