This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA Daily Fantasy Strategy Show every morning on our Awesemo YouTube Channel to find the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | March 31
Update 1: Kyle Lowry is out for the Raptors. This makes Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam better options, while also bumping the value of Gary Trent and OG Anunoby. Aron Baynes started the last time that Lowry was out but only played about 14 minutes. Chris Boucher played about 24 minutes off the bench in that game while Rodney Hood played about 27 minutes.
Point Guard
James Harden ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,500 SG FanDuel) posted another monster performance in Kyrie Irving’s return to the lineup last time out. He gets another great matchup tonight as he takes on his former team, the Houston Rockets. Irving’s presence in the lineup lowers Harden’s projection compared to if Irving were out, but he remains one of the highest-projected players on the slate. In his last ten games without Kevin Durant and with Irving active, Harden has averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.2 percent usage rate, 14.2 percent rebounding rate and 41.8 percent assist rate. He has also averaged 38.8 minutes per game. The Rockets are 25th in defensive rating and have played at the 10th fastest pace over the last month.
Luka Doncic ($10,700 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) is the other top end pay-up option at point guard tonight. He has a more difficult matchup than Harden as he takes on the Boston Celtics. The Celtics rank 19th in pace over the last month, though it is worth noting that they are 27th in defensive rating over that time despite having a reputation as a strong team defensively. Marcus Smart missed a substantial amount of time and his return should improve their defense, but it’s unlikely that his absence was the sole reason for their struggles. Doncic has averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute and 35.8 minutes per game in 27 games played with Kristaps Porzingis active this season. All things equal, Harden is preferred tonight but Doncic is slightly less expensive and certainly isn’t a bad consolation prize. In tournaments you should pay close attention to ownership between these two because Doncic offers a similar range of outcomes even if his median projection is slightly lower.
Damian Lillard ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) isn’t as appealing a DFS option with C.J. McCollum healthy as he was without him. Lillard has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute in 24 games without McCollum this season compared to 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with McCollum active. Add in that Jusuf Nurkic is back in the lineup and he is a higher-usage option than his replacement, Enes Kanter, and that Norman Powell is a higher-usage player than Gary Trent Jr. and there are suddenly a lot of mouths to feed in Portland. All of that said, Lillard’s salary has started to drop and he does still offer a massive ceiling given his talent level and playing time.
John Wall ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) is Houston’s best chance at keeping up with Harden and the Nets. If the Rockets make it a competitive game, Wall is likely to be a big reason why. He has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.3 percent usage rate and 42.7 percent assist rate in 14 games without Harden or Victor Oladipo this season. While Wall’s per-minute production is relatively low for his usage rate and assist rate, those numbers signify his massive ceiling as he plays a bigger role in his offense than most similarly priced players. Wall should play at least 33 minutes out tonight if the game is close and he is a strong mid-range option at point guard. Note that Wall is questionable tonight, so be sure to keep an eye on injury reports throughout the day.
Kyle Lowry ($7,200 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) only played about 24 minutes in his return to the lineup on Monday but that’s not anything to be concerned about. Lowry has averaged 34.3 minutes per game and 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 31 games played with Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam this season. He will face an Oklahoma City team that has struggled defensively recently, ranking 19th in defensive rating over the last month, and will be missing their best individual defender in Luguentz Dort. He is an especially strong value on FanDuel.
Dennis Schroder ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) gets a pace-up spot against a strong Milwaukee defense tonight. The Bucks are second in pace over the last month but also 11th in defensive rating and they have been one of the most efficient defenses all season long. Schroder has thrived without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, averaging 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.3 percent usage rate and 35.6 percent assist rate. Andre Drummond will be starting for the Lakers tonight and he is a much higher-usage player than Marc Gasol, so Schroder’s production could take a bit of a hit. He still looks like a viable option, especially on DraftKings, but it is important to account for Drummond’s addition to the lineup.
Dejounte Murray ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) posted 23 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in about 33 minutes against the Kings on Monday and he gets a chance to run it back tonight. Murray has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and 31.8 minutes per game in 18 games played without LaMarcus Aldridge and with DeMar DeRozan this season. He has also averaged 33 minutes per game over the last month, so he should play more minutes than his season average suggests. The Kings are a fantastic matchup as they have been one of the worst defensive teams all season long and Murray should take advantage once again.
Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is a scoring dependent option playing alongside Wall, but he should play a lot of minutes and get up a lot of shots. Porter played 36.4 minutes against the Grizzlies on Monday, and he should get similar playing time tonight if the game is competitive. Porter has only played two games alongside Wall without Oladipo this season, but he has a 24.3 percent usage rate and 14.6 percent assist rate in those games. If Wall sits, Porter becomes one of the top values on the slate as he has a 30.6 percent usage rate and 40.2 percent assist rate in two games without either of Oladipo or Wall.
Mike Conley ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) gets a bump tonight with Donovan Mitchell out. He has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.8 percent usage rate and 35 percent assist rate. While Conley’s per-minute production has been nearly identical with Mitchell on or off the court overall this season, it is important to keep in mind that the rotations change with Mitchell out. Of the 488 minutes that Conley has played without Mitchell on the floor this season, Jordan Clarkson has been on the floor for 456 of them. Tonight, Conley will get a chunk of minutes without either of Mitchell or Clarkson on the floor which will allow him more opportunities for fantasy points. The Grizzlies have been a strong team defensively all season long and they are fifth in defensive rating over the last month. They are also third in pace, however, which should help offset any efficiency issues.
Derrick White ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) played 31.9 minutes against the Kings on Monday and lost about two minutes to garbage time. White has regularly played 33 to 35 minutes in competitive games recently, and the return of Lonnie Walker will not change that. The Spurs have been involved in enough blowouts recently that White’s salary hasn’t increased quite as much as it should now that he has 35-minute upside in competitive games. He has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.6 percent usage rate and 16.5 percent assist rate in 14 games played without Aldridge and with DeRozan this season. He is likely to produce at an above-average rate against the Kings and projects as a strong point-per-dollar value.
Jordan Clarkson ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) has averaged 31.7 minutes per game in two games without Mitchell and with Conley this season. In those games, he has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.6 percent usage rate. In 614 total minutes without Mitchell on the floor this season, Clarkson has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.4 percent usage rate and 14.6 percent assist rate. He should be one of the most popular players tonight with Mitchell sidelined.
Derrick Rose ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) missed an extended period of time dealing with COVID, but he has played 29 and 26 minutes in the two games since his return. Rose has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.7 percent usage rate and 28.1 percent assist rate in 25.2 minutes per game since joining the Knicks. He has an excellent matchup against the Timberwolves tonight as well. Rose is questionable for tonight’s game, so keep an eye on his status.
Tomas Satoransky ($4,500 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute and 28 minutes per game in nine starts this season. Coby White is questionable and missed practice yesterday, so there is a chance that Satoransky will play a couple extra minutes if White is out tonight as well. Chicago has a tough matchup against the Suns, but Satoransky is cheap enough that he remains a viable value option.
Saben Lee ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) started and played 26.1 minutes in Detroit’s win over the Raptors on Monday. The Pistons will be without Dennis Smith Jr., Rodney McGruder and, most likely Wayne Ellington tonight so there should be plenty of minutes available again for Lee. He has a 21.7 percent usage rate and 36.5 percent assist rate in his two starts this season. Overall, he has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with an 18.7 percent usage rate and 33 percent assist rate in 19 games played without Rose or Blake Griffin this season.
Elfrid Payton ($4,100 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) is an interesting option in tournaments at this price point. His playing time is extremely volatile, especially if Derrick Rose is active. In the two games since Rose’s return, Payton has played 14.9 and 19.3 minutes. In nine total games with Rose, Payton has averaged 24.3 minutes per game. The reason that he is interesting in tournaments is that he has a great matchup against the Timberwolves, which increases the chances that he plays well and earns more playing time in this particular game. At his price point, he has the ability to be a tournament winning play if he somehow finds his way to 25-plus minutes. He will be more appealing if Rose sits since that would thin out the point guard rotation. Payton has averaged 28.3 minutes per game in 25 games without Rose this season. Long story short, Payton is an extremely risky option because there is a good chance he plays fewer than 20 minutes if Rose is active. He does have a huge ceiling for his salary, however, because the matchup is favorable and he could earn more minutes if he plays well.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden, Luka Doncic, John Wall (Q), Dejounte Murray, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic, John Wall (Q), Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson
[STARTING9]
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine ($8,200 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Suns, but he is available at one of the cheapest price points seen all season. In two games with Nikola Vucevic, LaVine has only averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute but he has a 29.6 percent usage rate. He has a 42.4 percent true shooting rate in those games compared to 64.2 percent for the season, so his per-minute production is irrelevant. His usage rate is similar to his 30.7 percent overall usage rate this season. The other concern in the two games with Vucevic is that LaVine only has an 11.7 percent assist rate compared to 22.8 percent for the season. After digging a little bit deeper, the assist rate isn’t particularly worrisome either. In the two games with Vucevic, LaVine has averaged 8.5 potential assists per 36 minutes. Overall this season he has averaged 10 potential assists per 36 minutes. While his potential assists have decreased, there is no reason to expect the substantial drop in assist rate . 49.5 percent of LaVine’s potential assists have been converted into actual assists this season compared to only 35.7 percent in the two games since Vucevic joined the team. LaVine’s salary is plummeting and the main reasons are poor shooting and bad luck on assists in his last couple of games. Note that LaVine is questionable tonight and did nothing in practice yesterday, so there is a decent chance he sits.
C.J. McCollum ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has played very well when healthy this season. In 20 games with Lillard, McCollum has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.0 percent usage rate and 24.7 percent assist rate. He was limited when he originally returned from injury, but has since played at least 36 minutes in four straight games. McCollum is reasonably priced for his production in a middle of the road matchup against the Pistons.
Fred VanVleet ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and 36.6 minutes per game in 31 games played with Lowry and Siakam active this season. VanVleet’s production could also increase slightly going forward because Trent is a lower-usage player than Powell so there should be a few extra shots to go around. Shooting guard doesn’t have a ton of strong options tonight, so VanVleet stands out on FanDuel since we have to roster two of them.
Joe Ingles ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) will most likely start in Mitchell’s place tonight. He has averaged 28.9 minutes per game in his two starts in place of Mitchell alongside Conley earlier this season, but he has averaged 30.7 minutes in 11 total starts this season and he should play at least 30 minutes tonight. He has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in those starts (mostly in place of Conley) and 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in 532 total minutes without Mitchell on the floor this season.
Tyler Herro ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) played 34.3 minutes against the Knicks on Monday with Kendrick Nunn out. Nunn is questionable tonight and, if he misses the game, it will open the door for another 32 to 34 minutes from Herro. Even if Nunn plays, Herro is likely to get at least 30 minutes as he has averaged 31.6 minutes per game and 0.84 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games played with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic active this season.
Hamidou Diallo ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,800 PG FanDuel) is priced up on FanDuel but he offers some value on DraftKings. Diallo played 27.2 minutes for the Pistons on Monday and there are plenty of minutes available for him tonight against the Blazers. Diallo was productive when he got opportunities in Oklahoma City this season, and that should be the case in Detroit as well. Diallo has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.7 percent usage rate, 11.5 percent rebounding rate and 16 percent assist rate in 34 games played between Oklahoma City and Detroit this season.
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk ($4,200 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) started and played 27.3 minutes against the Mavericks on Monday. Mykhailiuk isn’t a great fantasy producer, but he is cheap for the amount of playing time that he should play against a Toronto team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency over the last month. He has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 0.83 DraftKings points per minute since joining the Thunder. He should play 26 to 30 minutes again tonight.
De’Anthony Melton ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against Utah but he could potentially play extended minutes tonight for the Grizzlies. Grayson Allen is questionable for tonight’s game after leaving the Grizzlies’ last game early and Justise Winslow has already been ruled out. Melton played 28.4 minutes on Monday and should get similar playing time tonight if both players are out. If Allen plays, Melton is likely to lose a few minutes but he should get about 24 minutes. Melton has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season so, even assuming he produces at a below-average rate against the Jazz, he is likely to exceed his salary if he gets 24 to 28 minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine, C.J. McCollum, Hamidou Diallo, De’Anthony Melton (especially if Allen is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: C.J. McCollum, Zach LaVine, Fred VanVleet, De’Anthony Melton (especially if Allen is out)
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Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($8,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) has been very productive this season. In 15 games with Adebayo and Dragic active, Butler has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.7 percent usage rate, 12.4 percent rebounding rate and 31.9 percent assist rate. Butler should play 34-plus minutes as long as tonight’s game is competitive. The Pacers have also quietly been a favorable matchup over the last month, ranking fifth in pace and 21st in defensive rating.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,700 SG FanDuel) gets a nice matchup tonight against the Kings. He was relatively disappointing against them on Monday with 17 points, eight assists and three rebounds, but that doesn’t have an impact on how he should be viewed tonight. DeRozan played 32.4 minutes in the game on Monday and lost a couple of minutes to garbage time. In 18 games without Aldridge and with Murray this season, DeRozan has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute and 33.3 minutes per game. He has a 25.5 percent usage rate and 32.4 percent assist rate in those games.
Kyle Kuzma ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.9 percent usage rate, 15.0 percent rebounding rate and 21.4 percent assist rate in six games without James and Davis this season. He has also averaged 35.3 minutes per game in those games. Small forward isn’t a deep position so Kuzma stands out as a high-upside, mid-range option. There are legitimate concerns for Kuzma with Drummond joining the starting lineup, however. Not only will Drummond most likely take some usage away from Kuzma, but it is also likely that the 15 percent rebounding rate decreases. Drummond is one of the best rebounders in the league and had a 26 percent rebounding rate with Cleveland this season. By comparison, Marc Gasol has an 11 percent rebounding rate and Montrezl Harrell has a 15 percent rebounding rate this season. Kuzma has a high ceiling based on playing time, but he is much riskier with Drummond in the lineup than Gasol.
Saddiq Bey ($5,500 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) played 33.4 minutes against the Raptors last game and should get 30-plus minutes again tonight against Portland. Bey has started 23 games without Griffin or Rose this season and has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute and 31 minutes per game. The Blazers are 24th in pace over the last month, but they also have been the least efficient defense in the NBA.
Patrick Williams ($4,100 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) has only produced 0.72 DraftKings points per minute in 44 starts this season, but he has averaged 28.3 minutes per game in those starts. Furthermore, he has played at least 30 minutes in four of his last five games — including 32.4 minutes against Golden State on Monday. It is difficult to trust Williams, but he is inexpensive enough that he offers value as a starter who is likely to play 30-plus minutes. He should be more expensive than minimum salary on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Saddiq Bey
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler, Saddiq Bey, Patrick Williams
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) takes on the Lakers tonight. Giannis has had a few disappointing games in a row, but he is one of the highest-upside players on the slate. He has averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute this season in 33 games with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday active. He has average 27.1 points, 10.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists, one steal and 1.2 blocks per game in 33.4 minutes per game in those games. The Lakers are still third in the NBA in defensive rating since James’ injury, so this is not a positive matchup despite the absence of their two superstars. Still, Giannis can post a monster game against anyone so he remains one of the highest-upside plays on the slate.
Julius Randle ($9,700 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) played 35.9 minutes against Miami on Monday and has averaged 38.1 minutes per game in 11 games played over the last month. Randle has played eight games with Payton and Rose both active this season. He has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.3 percent usage rate, 19.1 percent assist rate and 14.9 percent rebounding rate. In 29 games with Payton active and Rose inactive (or not yet on the team), Randle has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.3 percent usage rate, 15.6 percent rebounding rate and 26.8 percent assist rate. He shouldn’t have any trouble in tonight’s matchup against Minnesota and is at a relatively inexpensive price tag compared to some of his recent salaries.
Jerami Grant ($7,200 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) dealt with some foul trouble in his last game and only played 29.6 minutes against Toronto. He has only averaged 31.4 minutes per game over the last month, so there is some concern that Detroit is easing up on his playing time a bit as they don’t care about winning games down the stretch. Grant’s salary has fallen as a result of the decreased playing time, however, so he still has a relatively high ceiling tonight against Portland. Grant has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in 20 games played without Rose or Griffin this season.
Keldon Johnson ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,000 SF FanDuel) has been extremely bad lately. He is still playing 26-plus minutes in most games and he has a great matchup against the Kings. The most noticeable issue for Johnson is his lack of rebounding recently. In 14 games since returning from the Spurs’ COVID hiatus, Johnson has averaged about 26 minutes per game. In those games, he has averaged seven rebounds per 36 minutes and 11.2 rebound chances per 36 minutes. In 27 games prior to the COVID break, Johnson had averaged about 30 minutes per game. In those games, he grabbed 8.4 rebounds per 36 minutes and had 13.3 rebound chances per 36 minutes. So, not only is he playing fewer minutes than he was earlier in the year, but he is also getting fewer rebound chances per minute and grabbing fewer rebounds per minute. This largely coincides with Jakob Poeltl replacing LaMarcus Aldridge in the starting lineup, so it makes sense. Keep in mind, however, that Johnson still has a high ceiling for his salary in this matchup. The last time that I dug into his rebounding numbers and pointed out that they were down in recent games, he responded with 21 rebounds against the Cavaliers. Poeltl was in foul trouble that game, but the point remains that he still has potential even though I’m much less interested in him tonight than I would have been two months ago.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) offers some value with Mitchell out of the lineup because he should get more usage and there are also more minutes available. Bogdanovic has averaged 34 minutes per game in the two games he has played without Mitchell and with Conley this season compared to 29.9 minutes per game with both players active. Obviously this is a small sample size, but expect 32-plus minutes from Bogdanovic tonight. He has a 21.2 percent usage rate in 149 minutes without Mitchell on the floor this season compared to a 20.2 percent usage rate alongside Mitchell.
Royce O’Neale ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) is one of my least favorite players to roster in DFS, but his salary is appealing tonight and he is likely to pick up a couple extra minutes without Mitchell available. O’Neale has averaged 35.8 minutes per game in his two games without Mitchell this season and there is a good chance he will see at least 34 or 35 minutes tonight. While he offers a lot of minutes for his salary, keep an eye on his ownership in tournaments. O’Neale averages about 0.70 DraftKings points per minute with or without Mitchell on the floor, so he isn’t likely to post a score that will hurt you if you don’t have him in tournaments. He often ends up very popular in these situations because his median projection is strong for his salary even though he offers very little volatility.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Julius Randle, Jerami Grant, Bojan Bogdanovic
[JOINMLB+]
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) is coming off a huge game against the Nets but he has a less appealing matchup tonight against the Knicks. New York has been one of the slowest teams and most efficient defenses all season. Towns has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute and 33.8 minutes per game this season. He contributes points, rebounds, assists and blocks so he has a very high ceiling despite the matchup. The center position has plenty of mid-range upside, but not many glaring values so the opportunity cost isn’t that high either. I don’t love the spot or the salary for Towns, but given the strong guard value that on this slate, I could see roster construction breaking down in a way that makes paying up for Towns a strong move.
Bam Adebayo ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) stands out as an underpriced option on DraftKings. Adebayo has played 15 games with Butler and Dragic active this season. He has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in those games with a 22.8 percent usage rate, 17.1 percent rebounding rate and 23.9 percent assist rate. Adebayo has averaged 33 minutes per game over the last month and there is a chance will play more than that tonight because it should be a competitive game and the Heat could potentially use Adebayo to match the minutes of Domantas Sabonis (who averages more minutes per game than Adebayo).
Moses Brown ($7,100 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) was disappointing against the Mavericks on Monday, but he played 29.6 minutes. Brown has now averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute and 29.7 minutes per game in six starts this season. My analysis of Brown is basically the same as it was last game and as it will continue to be at this price point. There is very limited data on Brown as an NBA DFS player. So far, he has shown the ability to produce at a very high rate thanks to a 22.8 percent rebounding rate and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes. He should continue to produce at a high rate because rebounding numbers are typically stable, but he will most likely also deal with some growing pains that give him a relatively low floor for his salary.
Robert Williams ($6,700 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) is almost identical to Brown as far as a DFS option. He is slightly less expensive so he is slightly less risky, but he is still an extremely volatile option that I don’t feel great rostering at this price point but that can also produce a score that really helps you win tournaments. Williams has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 20.8 percent rebounding rate and 3.8 blocks per 36 minutes. The block numbers in particular give him massive upside, especially on FanDuel where they are 3 points apiece. Williams has averaged 28.4 minutes per game in his three starts so far, which is enough for him to put up a huge score but also not enough to feel like he is a safe option at his salary.
Deandre Ayton ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) somehow feels like the “safe” option in this price range, even though he has dealt with playing time concerns of his own this season. His minutes have rebounded recently, however, and he has averaged 30.1 minutes per game in 41 total games with Devin Booker and Chris Paul active this season. Ayton has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in those games. Brown and/or Williams are more likely to break the slate in this price range, but Ayton is slightly more stable. Overall, I would just prefer the cheapest of the trio in cash games and the lowest owned in tournaments.
Jakob Poeltl ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) played 31.9 minutes in this same matchup on Monday and left some playing time on the table as he subbed out with almost four minutes left in the blowout loss. Poeltl has averaged 28.2 minutes per game and 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in 26 starts this season. He isn’t an exciting option, but he looks a little underpriced for a matchup against the Kings.
Nerlens Noel ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,700) is a reasonable value option as well in a good matchup against the Timberwolves. Noel played 30 minutes in his start against Miami last game, but he also had an abbreviated stint in the third quarter as he picked up three fouls in four minutes and went to the bench. Noel has started 13 games without Mitchell Robinson and with Taj Gibson this season, averaging 26.5 minutes per game and 0.74 DraftKings points per minute.
Chris Boucher ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) is an extremely low floor and extremely high-ceiling option. There is nothing I, or anyone else, can say that should make you feel comfortable rostering Boucher tonight. That said, his ownership is likely to be low and he offers per-minute production that you just can’t find elsewhere in this price range. The Raptors are also facing a relatively small Oklahoma City frontcourt, so size shouldn’t keep Boucher off the floor. Boucher has averaged 23.1 minutes per game over the last month, but he has only exceeded that total once in his last seven games (24 minutes against Portland two games ago). My general rule of thumb is to take shots on players like Boucher in tournaments when he is cheap and/or low owned. His lack of playing time lately puts us in a situation where both are likely to be true.
Andre Drummond ($7,800 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) is a huge wildcard tonight and there is drastically different pricing between DraftKings and FanDuel. Drummond hasn’t played an NBA game since Feb. 12 and he hasn’t played more than 17 minutes in a game since Feb. 8. It is unclear what type of shape he is in or how many minutes he can play tonight. But he averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute with a 31 percent usage rate, 26 percent rebounding rate and 16.1 percent assist rate while also averaging more than one block and one steal per game with Cleveland this season. There are plenty of minutes available for him in Los Angeles, and without James or Davis, plenty of production is available as well. He is too expensive on DraftKings unless you feel like taking a big risk in large field tournaments. On FanDuel, however, it’s pretty difficult to see how he disappoints at $5,200 outside of an injury, foul trouble or one of the worst games he has played this season. Assuming that he produces at a similar rate to his last two seasons (1.44 FanDuel points per minute), he would need 18 minutes to get 26 FanDuel points and have a score that doesn’t kill us. If he plays 24 minutes, he would have 34.5 points and he would be one of the best center plays on the slate. This doesn’t even factor in that the unlikely, but greater than zero percent, chance that Drummond plays a bunch of minutes. The range of outcomes on Drummond is wide because there is a lot of uncertainty in his first game with the Lakers, but the inexpensive price tag on FanDuel skews it so that the potential reward is much greater than the risk.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Bam Adebayo, Moses Brown, Robert Williams, Deandre Ayton
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Moses Brown, Robert Williams, Andre Drummond
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