NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer: Pivot to Bennedict Mathurin Instead

On tap for Friday is a nine-game slate. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, NBA DFS players can examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players to help build lineups capable of shooting to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS picks for leverage for Friday.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 13

High-End Tier

For tonight’s nine-game slate, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic are expected to be the most popular high-end options, with DeMar DeRozan (doubtful, quad) expected to miss his second straight and the Bulls going against a Thunder team that leads the league in pace. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, LaVine and Vucevic are forecasted to be two of the 10 most rostered players on the slate according to Stokastic’s projections. With DeRozan missing his first game of the season Wednesday, LaVine led the Bulls with 51.75 DraftKings points against the Wizards, while Vucevic underachieved with only 40 DraftKings points. Overall, LaVine’s usage rises 4.8 percentage points to a team-high 32.3% and his assist rate also rises 5.7 percentage points to 24.5% with DeRozan off the floor this season, while none of Vucevic’s rates increase anything over two percentage points. LaVine is clearly the primary beneficiary in this situation, while Vucevic warrants a fade with the heavy ownership.

A stud that needs to be included in GPP pools tonight is Kawhi Leonard, especially on DraftKings, where the two-time NBA Finals MVP is slated for single-digit ownership according to Stokastic’s projections. Paul George (hamstring) remains sidelined, and Leonard has looked like his old self with George out, producing 54.75 DraftKings points per game in his last two starts. With George off the court this season, Leonard’s usage rises 2.3 percentage points to 29.1% and he leads the Clippers with 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. Facing a Nuggets defense that ranks 22nd in efficiency tonight, over 60 fantasy points in the realm of possibilities for Leonard.

C.J. McCollum is also an elite GPP target with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Brandon Ingram (toe) remain unavailable, and the Pelicans get a gorgeous matchup against the Pistons, who rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency. With those two starters out for the last four, McCollum has provided 49 DraftKings points per game. Furthermore, with Williamson and Ingram off the court this season, McCollum’s usage has jumped 4.7 percentage points to a team-high 31.5%, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. New Orleans carries the fifth highest implied team total on the slate despite missing two of their best players (119.5 points) and McCollum is strong investment for over 50 fantasy points in this elite spot.

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Value Tier

With Tyrese Haliburton (knee/elbow) out tonight and the Pacers competing in the second highest total on the slate against the Hawks (238.5 points), T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard are projected to be two of the five most owned players on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. In this situation, McConnell is a must-play. He has yet to play a full game without Haliburton this season, but after Haliburton exited in the third quarter Wednesday, McConnell didn’t leave the floor and finished with 38 DraftKings points in 28 minutes against the Knicks. He supplies 1 DraftKings point per minute this season and should destroy his salaries as Indiana’s starting point guard in this projected shootout with Atlanta. McConnell is averaging 34.2 DraftKings points over his last 10 games with at least 25 minutes.

Nembhard, on the other hand, recorded only 20.75 DraftKings points against the Knicks on Wednesday and is a logical fade tonight. He exploded for 50.75 DraftKings points per game when Haliburton missed two games in a row in December, but this was a product of McConnell also missing both of those contests. Having McConnell around this time is a whole different scenario that limits Nembhard’s upside. Nembhard has produced only 0.7 DraftKings points per minute in 161 minutes without McConnell and Haliburton.

While slightly more expensive, Bennedict Mathurin is projected for about half the ownership as Nembhard and is the much better target. Mathurin finished with 28.5 DraftKings points after Haliburton got injured Wednesday and leads the Pacers with a 30.7% usage rate – which a 4.7-percentage-point upgrade from his season average – and scores 1 DraftKings point per minute with him off the floor this season.

While Ivica Zubac was a letdown Tuesday, recording only 21.25 DraftKings points against the Mavericks, he deserves another chance tonight, with George remaining out. He picked up three fouls early in the first quarter Tuesday, which limited him to only 15 minutes for the entire contest. With George out in the previous game, Zubac avoided foul trouble against the Hawks and dominated, with 46.5 DraftKings points in 37.4 minutes. He scores 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with George off the floor this season and has topped 30 DraftKings points in half of the games George has missed this year. Ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency and giving up the eighth most points in the paint, the Nuggets present a strong matchup for Zubac tonight and he is one of the best GPP gambles on the board with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Situations to Monitor

Nikola Jokic (wrist) headlines today’s list of questionable players. If he sits, Jamal Murray would be an excellent target for GPPs that likely would get overlooked for this full slate. In the lone start he has made without Jokic this season, Murray poured in 45.25 DraftKings points against the Knicks. With Jokic off the floor this season, Murray’s usage jumps 5.9 percentage points to 31.3% and he generates 1.2 DraftKings points per minute.

On top of Haliburton being out, Myles Turner (back) is questionable for the Pacers. If he is out, Jalen Smith will be a viable punt. He disappointed with only 18.25 DraftKings points with Turner out Tuesday against the Knicks but saw an encouraging 24.5 minutes of work as the Pacers’ starting center. With this type of role again tonight, Smith would be a strong bounce back candidate in this huge total against the Hawks (238.5 points). With both Turner and Haliburton off the floor this season, Smith has collected 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. Now, if Turner suits up, he will be an outstanding play for GPPs that surely get overlooked after initially being listed as questionable. Turner leads the Pacers with 1.2 DraftKings points per minute with Haliburton off the floor this season – thanks to a 2.9 percentage point boost to his usage rate – and this high scoring affair against the Hawks will take place in Indiana, where Turner has been 6.8 DraftKings points per game better than when on the road this season.

Anthony Edwards (questionable, hip) exited Wednesday’s loss to the Pistons early and is in danger of missing his first game of the season tonight. Edwards leads the Timberwolves in usage this season and his absence would open the door for D’Angelo Russell to thrive against a depleted Suns club. Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) remains sidelined and with he and Edwards off the floor this season, Russell’s usage increases 2.2 percentage points to 24.8% and he supplies 1 DraftKings point per minute.

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