NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

Sometimes an entire night of NBA DFS can come down to a single decision. For me that decision’s name was Dennis Schroder on Thursday night. The Lakers’ third option just didn’t get it done with only 14.8 FanDuel points in a dismal showing. Schroder looked like a good option for a bit of a discount from some more popular shooting guards on the slate; his $5,300 compared to his pre-lock boom score and optimal lineup appearance rates all aligned well. Sometimes the plays just don’t get there, that doesn’t make them wrong. I would repeat the decisions because I believe in the data and the process, which should always be the question we’re asking. For the Friday NBA DFS slate, we have a juicy 10-game slate in both DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests. As always, this article comes out earlier in the afternoon, and many things will change. It is imperative that you follow along with our NewsGod’s Live Blog for the latest news and lineup information for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft NBA DFS picks.

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders | Jan. 8

Cole Anthony – Orlando Magic

DraftKings – $5,000 – PG/SG / FanDuel – $5,000 – PG

Playing a guard spot for the Orlando Magic is starting to become comparable to playing the drums for Spinal Tap early in the 2020-21 season. With a number of injuries changing the face of the team’s backcourt, Anthony is the next man up. Most recently the understudy to Markelle Fultz‘s emergent season as of the injury to previous backup Michael Carter-Williams, Anthony may now be thrust into a starting role. During last night’s game, Fultz unfortunately suffered a devastating ACL tear and will be lost for the season. Anthony filled in gamely, playing more than 32 minutes and putting up eight points on just 4-for-12 shooting, 0-for-4 from 3. Anthony added four rebounds, three assists and a block, though his three turnovers cut into his NBA DFS points upside. On a better shooting and ball-handling night with reliable minutes and a more focused role, Anthony could put a ceiling score on his low price.

In FanDuel NBA contests, the point guard is carrying a raw point projection over 30, while appearing in 36.5% of optimal lineups in simulations, second overall on the slate. The 55.8% boom score also ranks second by a significant margin over the field, but not wildly far behind clear leader Caris LeVert at 64.4%. Anthony’s leverage score is just a hair on the positive side at 0.3, but this is entirely acceptable for a play with this much value and upside. It should be easy enough to get to or ahead of the field tonight.

On DraftKings the play looks equally strong. The salary is the same, but Anthony provides shooting guard eligibility as well. his 38.7% appearance rate in optimal lineups ranks first on the slate by a margin of three percentage points over Caris LeVert, and his boom rate is also ahead at 46.3%. Both players are slate leaders on DraftKings as well, however. Once again, by leverage Anthony is not as owned as he likely should be. While he is in the negative at -3.8 on DraftKings, the price and quality of play suggest we should leverage up, rather than avoiding the spot.

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LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers

DraftKings – $10,300 – PG/SF / FanDuel – $10,200 – SF

If I told you the best player in the world was under-owned on both sites, would I have your attention? Until someone forcibly takes his crown, James reigns supreme over the real-life NBA, and he remains a viable pay-up option on any slate that includes him.

James is expensive on both sites, but he appears to be well worth the investment, with strong leverage scores across NBA DFS. In DraftKings NBA contests, James is carrying a 21.7% boom rate, eighth overall on the slate and second among high-priced players. His optimal lineup appearance rate is the highest among pay-up options as well, while he is pulling a leverage score of 2.6. While I wouldn’t necessarily make changes to force LeBron into DraftKings NBA lineups tonight, I will gladly take as much of him as comes naturally in builds, fitting in well with other salaries in optimal constructions.

On FanDuel James looks like a very strong investment. His optimal lineup appearance rate of 21.8% lands fourth overall on the slate and first among small forwards by a decent margin. He is expensive at $10,200, but his boom score of 29.5% suggests he can get there easily enough, and we’re buying a monster 7.6 leverage score by playing one of the best options on the slate. When I draw pocket kings at the poker table, I’m usually looking to get all of my chips in. I have no qualms about shoving on James in the same situation in FanDuel NBA contests tonight.

The Center Position

We did this earlier in the week and I think tonight’s interesting slate of centers warrants exploration once again. As we’ve discussed in this space, the play at center is one of the main differences from DraftKings to FanDuel when making NBA DFS picks. FanDuel forces you to choose just one player at the position, while DraftKings allows at least two when utilizing the FLEX spot, and as many as you can fit with multi-position eligibility. This creates opportunity cost when making roster decisions on FanDuel and adds value across a swath of plays on DraftKings.

On tonight’s slate Nikola Vucevic is the highest-priced center on both sites. The Magic’s big man sits at $9,000 on DraftKings and $8,800 in FanDuel NBA contests. Vucevic has been a productive asset in NBA DFS this season, improving on last year’s already solid numbers with around 1.36 points per minute. Vucevic is the center with the highest raw projection on both sites. On FanDuel his optimal lineup appearance rate ranks first at the position, while he comes in fourth among eligible centers on DraftKings. By boom rate he is fourth on both sites. Vucevic is a reasonable option if you have the money, but with his ownership pushing him to negative leverage scores, there should be better options at lower prices.

Included in that list, we could see whoever plays in the Celtics frontcourt at extreme value as well as several quality options who are underappreciated. On DraftKings, Jonas Valanciunas costs $7,200 which pushes down his boom score, but also his ownership, creating a positive leverage situation when he appears in 6.9% of optimal lineups in our simulations. His ownership outstrips his optimal lineup rate on the blue site, but he is fine and I will take him around the field.

The Nets are shorthanded for their matchup on the other side of Valanciunas’ game with both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant out, which not only pushes up LeVert but also should help boost Jarrett Allen once again. Allen saw 28 minutes to DeAndre Jordan‘s 18 in last night’s game, a stint that included coming out early in the fourth quarter during what turned into a blowout. Allen could see additional minutes and push a ceiling score tonight, though how he handles Valanciunas early could dictate his ultimate run. Allen is pulling down a 29.5% boom score and an 8.8% optimal lineup appearance rate with a positive leverage score on FanDuel, 19.2% boom with a 10.3% optimal and essentially even leverage on DraftKings. Jordan could be in play as a deep value dart throw on both sites.

As of the early afternoon, Christian Wood is still questionable with a knee injury. We saw Wood miss Wednesday’s game, pushing DeMarcus Cousins into the starting lineup at a cheap salary, where he proceeded to completely ravage the slate, despite playing just 19 total minutes. The night serves as a good reminder of just how quickly Cousins can rack up fantasy points when he’s going right. The big man will be very much in play with Wood news, though he does not look at all strong with his current 14 minute projection. This is a firm stay tuned spot.

Making up a strong list of also-rans on what is very much a mix-and-match slate at the center position, I would consider Al Horford, Wendell Carter, Deandre Ayton and Brook Lopez as value plays of varying quality on FanDuel. In DraftKings contests my NBA DFS picks would include that same list as well as Rudy Gobert and Richaun Holmes. Mitchell Robinson is an example of a player who has upside, but he appears slightly over-owned for his probability of getting there for us.

None of this accounts for the centers from the Boston Celtics.

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Boston Celtics

The Celtics have a genuine health crisis on their hands, listing numerous players on the Health and Safety Protocols list. This includes three prominent members of the team’s frontcourt, namely Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams and Grant Williams. This creates a massive minutes void in the middle for Boston, with only Daniel Theis and Tacko Fall available at the center spot on either site for NBA DFS.

The clear choice for me as of the early afternoon is Theis. Fall is far more fun to roster than he is a serious NBA player, though with enough minutes at price he can surely provide some value. This is reflected in his quality boom scores at the minimum salary tonight. We’ve seen Theis produce time and again however, and he should be in an all-you-can-eat spot in terms of minutes. The big man has had an unproductive start to the season at just 0.79 fantasy points per minute, though he has point-per-minute upside on the right night. If he’s getting 32 to 34 minutes of run, there is major opportunity here.

With plenty of minutes still to go around, we should see extended run for stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The duo is absolutely dynamic, though the line between Batman and Robin has been blurred significantly to start the year. Tatum still has the higher salary on both sites, but their production has been similar, at around 1.30 fantasy points per minute for Tatum and 1.25 for Brown. With a $1,400 salary difference on FanDuel, albeit at different positions, Brown looks like the choice if we can only have one. Both players are pulling a strong boom score in the mid 30% range, appearing in optimal lineups between 15-18% of the time, while pulling a fair amount of ownership. Both players are quality plays that I won’t shy away from, additional minutes will push them toward their ceiling and I think we will see the numbers climb as we close in on lock.

On DraftKings Tatum appears to be the play. He costs just $500 more than Brown does on that site while carrying value at the small forward and power forward spots. Tatum’s optimal lineup appearance rate of 16.2% is more than double Brown’s. He is pulling ownership, but not in a prohibitive way. I can get to both players but I would probably come up with more Tatum.

We can debate the upside of a Semi Ojeleye play if we know he’s going to get 30 minutes. At the 24-minute mark for which Awesemo currently has him projected, we’re seeing no value at all in the play. The forward projects for around 15 fantasy points with no leverage or appearances in the optimal lineup to discuss. If we get starting news his value could increase at just $3,500 in FanDuel NBA contests and $3,200 on DraftKings.

The final player with NBA DFS picks value is Marcus Smart. The guard should see plenty of action with a fair share of minutes available beyond the 34 for which we have him projected. At that mark, Smart looks like a quality play in terms of projection and points per dollar, but his ownership is intimidating for a player who posts a fantasy point per minute rate around 0.91. Smart is a player I like to roster in the right opportunity. In addition to his ability to score he is adept on defense and generates additional points with his hustle. I always consider players who can put fantasy points on my ledger without having to rely on real life point scoring. However, the -9.7 leverage score on FanDuel is pushing him to the fringes of my desires. I will have some Smart, but if things don’t change, I could see coming in below the field. He is a different play on DraftKings, where he is at just -3.6 leverage, though again I’m not sure the boom score or optimal lineup appearance rate warrant the risk of over-exposure.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.