NBA Fantasy: DraftKings + FanDuel Projections & High-Upside Plays 3/16

In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.

*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | March 16

NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates

Moses Brown vs. Bulls: $3,500 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel

55% DraftKings Boom/50.9% FanDuel Boom

All of a sudden, Brown is playing a significant role for the Thunder. With Al Horford resting and Darius Bazley out, I am expected Brown to start at center for the Thunder. The team is prioritizing getting him minutes over Isaiah Roby in recent games. With that said, we do need to see a starting lineup because Roby is the better value play if he ends up starting at center instead. Last game it was Brown who drew into the starting five. He only played 24 minutes, but it was because he fouled out. We likely would have seen somewhere around 30 minutes if not for the fouls. Brown is scoring well over a fantasy point per minute this season, so he rates out as the top value play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/16/2021″ team=”Bulls”]

Tony Bradley vs. Knicks: $3,700 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel

30.9% DraftKings Boom/47.5% FanDuel Boom

How has Bradley not seen an uptick in price? Joel Embiid is out for an extended period of time, and Bradley started in his place last game. Bradley remains cheap on DraftKings and at min price on FanDuel despite a change in role that we have known about for almost a week at this point. Bradley is scoring over a fantasy point per minute this season and was over a fantasy point per minute in each of the last two seasons. As long as he gets over 20 minutes, he should return value on his cheap price tag. Bradley will split minutes with Dwight Howard, although he did hit the 20 minute-mark in each of his two recent starts with Embiid out.

LeBron James vs. Timberwolves: $10,500 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel

24.3% DraftKings Boom/31.2% FanDuel Boom

Unlike yesterday’s slate, there aren’t many options to pay up for. Also unlike yesterday’s slate, we have a ton of value. There is a surplus of cheap players and a lack of stars, which is going to force LeBron into a ton of my lineups. I don’t see a way around it with the way this slate is shaping up. At least LeBron is in a good matchup, so I don’t feel bad about the amount of him that is getting forced into my player pool. The Timberwolves play at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA and rank 25th in defensive efficiency.

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NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates

Immanuel Quickley vs. 76ers: $5,800 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel

85.9% DraftKings Bust/67.1% FanDuel Bust

Quickley wasn’t awful last night, but he was a bit of a letdown as one of the most popular plays on the slate. Now that his price is up, I don’t think he makes for a great play in a tough matchup against the 76ers. Elfrid Payton and Derrick Rose are both listed as questionable after missing last night’s game, and Quickley is going to lose out on playing time if either or both of them return. In addition, Quickley is still projected as one of the most popular plays of the day on both sites.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.