The second leg of the PGA playoffs, the BMW Championship, takes the tour to Olympia Fields, Ill., and will feature a course that was one of the tougher venues on the PGA Tour last time it hosted an event (in 2020). Jon Rahm won the tournament against Dustin Johnson that season in one of the more exciting playoffs in PGA history, with the winning score being a paltry 4 under par. The venue this year will again play as a long par 70 at over 7,300 yards and feature poa and bentgrass greens, with the likelihood of much longer and heavier rough being in play as well.
In that sense, it should be quite a different test for the players compared to last week, and in 2020 some of the longest hitters and best tee-to-green golfers in Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Dustin Johnson all thrived here. After last week, the field was pared down to 50 and once again there will be no alternates, so any withdrawals will not see new players added to the field. That is significant for daily fantasy golf purposes, as the 50-man field will not include a Friday cut.
There is lots to wade through, with the FedEx Cup bubble in play as well, and there has never been a better time to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections to get an edge. But before you do, make sure you keep reading the full preview for the 2023 BMW Championship DFS picks.
2023 BMW Championship DFS Picks & Preview
The top 4 finishers at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week were:
- 1st – Lucas Glover
- 2nd – Patrick Cantlay
- 3rd – Rory McIlroy / Tommy Fleetwood
The BMW Championship is where the field begins paring down to eventually crown a FedEx champion. Unlike previous seasons, there is no cut in the actual tournament, but regardless of where golfers finish in this event, anyone outside of the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings once it ends is done for the year and does not get a spot in the Tour Championship the following week.
The venue this year is a familiar one, as Olympia Fields also hosted this tournament back in 2020. The top of the leaderboard that season featured mainly world-class ball strikers and the longest hitters on the PGA Tour. Whether the course will play as tough is something to focus on, but if it does, it will make paring down this field and looking for outright bets a lot simpler in many regards.
Here is a list of the top 10 players in the FedEx Cup playoffs heading into the second playoff event of the season.
1 Jon Rahm
2 Scottie Scheffler
3 Rory McIlroy
4 Lucas Glover
5 Patrick Cantlay
6 Max Homa
7 Viktor Hovland
8 Wyndham Clark
9 Brian Harman
10 Tommy Fleetwood
Notables: Collin Morikawa (22), Jordan Spieth (27), Cam Davis (45), Hideki Matsuyama (47)
BMW Championship DFS & Betting Trends
- The past 11 winners of the BMW Championship have all had at least one top-12 finish in their last four starts on the PGA Tour.
- None of the past 13 winners of the BMW Championship had missed the cut in their previous start.
- Of the last eight winners, only two finished worse than 12th in the FedEx St. Jude Championship (the first FedEx Cup playoff event) the week prior (Keegan Bradley 49th in 2018; Patrick Cantlay 57th in 2022).
Below are some of the top players in the field to watch given their recent form and course history:
- Lucas Glover: Anchor putting apparently still works in 2023. Glover is hitting is unreal and putting like prime Tiger Woods. It likely will not last forever, but it is a nice story.
- Rory McIlroy: He likely would have won by multiple shots if he had used Glover’s putter. He did not, so another top-10 finish it is, his eighth in a row.
- Tommy Fleetwood: Tommy, Tommy, Tommy. Recorded his fifth top-10 in his last six starts. He gained over five strokes putting for the week but missed multiple short putts on Sunday.
- Russell Henley: Sixth at the FedEx last week and second at the Wyndham two weeks ago. Henley is striking it well and looks poised to make a run for East Lake.
- Max Homa: Homa has found his game at the right time. He landed a 10th at the Open and followed it up with a solid sixth last week.
Field Notes for the BMW Championship DFS Picks: Sungjae Im has found some form late in the season, putting together a few solid starts in a row. Hideki Matsuyama bounced back nicely after a disastrous Wyndham start and sits 47th in the FedEx Cup. He will need a massive finish at Olympia Fields.
BMW Championship Past Winners
2022: Patrick Cantlay (15 Under Par — Played at Wilmington)
- Lead-in: 57/2/8 (57th at FedEx week prior / 8th at the Open).
Strokes Gained: TTG: 8.8 | SG: APP 5.4 | SG: OTT: 4.0 | SG: ATG: -0.4 | SG: PUTT: 2.2
2021: Patrick Cantlay (12 Under Par — Played at Caves Valley)
- Lead-in: 11/23/MC (11th at FedEx week prior / MC at the Open).
Strokes Gained: TTG 1.2; APP 1.2; OTT 1.2; ATG -1.1; PUTT 14.6
2020: Jon Rahm (4 Under Par — Played at Olympia Fields)
- Lead-in: 6/13/52 (6th at FedEx week prior / 13th at PGA).
Strokes Gained: TTG 7.4; APP 3.0; OTT 3.0; ATG 1.4; PUTT 3.9
This tournament is played on a rotating band of courses, so past data outside of 2020 is pretty much useless. The lead-in form for past winners is interesting to note, however, as most have tended to do well at the previous week’s playoff event. Rahm finished sixth at the first playoff tournament in 2020 before winning at Olympia Fields. This event has also seen a lot of quality winners, with a top-10 player in the OWGR winning in each of the past four seasons.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
BMW Championship DFS Course Preview
The course will play longer than last week’s. As a par 70 that measures 7,366 yards, Olympia Fields carries plenty of longer par 4’s and par 3’s — one that is listed as 280 yards — where par should be a fantastic score. Much like in 2020 when it hosted, a great week off the tee will likely be needed and good drivers of the ball (both distance and accuracy) should have an edge. Distance should be a factor, but anyone trending well tee to green who can find a ton of fairways should do well.
Olympia Fields (Olympia Fields, Ill.): Par 70, 7,366 Yards
Greens: Bentgrass / Poa
Designer: Willie Park Jr. (1923)
Renovation Architect (year): Mark Mungeam (2013)
Course Correlations
TPC Harding Park, Firestone, Riviera
The field averaged 55% in driving accuracy at the 2003 U.S. Open (which Olympia Fields hosted) and just 59% in greens in regulation; players also scrambled at just a 48% rate at that tournament. Driving accuracy was even lower in 2020 at the BMW Championships. Players will have to hit a lot of drivers here, and with everyone missing the fairways, the bomb-and-gougers will have an advantage. There is not only a par 3 that spans over 250 yards but also a par 5 around 625 yards. Additionally, at least five par 4’s should measure over 450 yards. Greens are listed as a mix of bentgrass and poa and also are fairly small on average; how they set fairways and green speeds will have a lot to do with how this longer setup plays.
Key Stats for the BMW Championship DFS Picks: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee / Strokes Gained: Tee to Green / Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards
2023 BMW Championship Recent Form Watch
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (Last 50 Rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler
Patrick Cantlay
Rory McIlroy
Viktor Hovland
Tyrrell Hatton
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Last 50 Rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- Collin Morikawa
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jon Rahm
Par 4 efficiency 450-500 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Rory McIlroy
- Patrick Cantlay
- Scottie Scheffler
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Byeong Hun An
2023 BMW Championship Weather Update
Thursday morning: 68-70 F, winds 10-12 mph/ 40% chance of precipitation.
Thursday afternoon: 75-78 F, winds 9-10 mph/ 20% chance of precipitation.
Friday morning: 68-70 F, winds 6-7 mph/ 10% chance of precipitation.
Friday afternoon: 78-80 F, winds 6-7 mph/ 10% chance of precipitation.
The weather does not look like it will play a huge role. The first day will have some higher winds and potential rain set for the morning. The winds on Thursday could be consistently in the 10-plus mph range all day as well. A little rain will make the already long course play even longer, giving more advantage to the bigger hitters. The sun will come out over the next couple of days, though, and should firm up the course. Expect the greens to play fast as the week progresses. This should be a fun tee-to-green test.
2023 BMW Championship DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets
Rory McIlroy | BetMGM Outright
McIlroy had a solid start to the FedEx Cup last week, ultimately finishing third in Memphis. He gained over eight strokes ball striking alone in the effort and really only struggled on and around the greens. McIlroy is typically pretty consistent around the greens, having gained strokes in that area in eight of his last 10 starts on the PGA, so expect a quick bounce back. One thing for sure is he will benefit from the driver-heavy setup at Olympia Fields, a venue where he placed 12th in 2020 while gaining three strokes off the tee.
McIlroy managed that 2020 result while not playing his best golf (he was admittedly out of sorts during the COVID restart), and with him hitting the ball so well, his chances at this venue in 2023 will only improve. Ultimately, a top-10 player in the OWGR has won this leg of the playoffs four straight seasons, so it makes sense to stick with the top of the board for betting. McIlroy makes tons of sense as a betting target given both the setup for 2023 and his continued run of excellent play.
Byeong Hun An | BetMGM Outright + Top 10/20
One has to love the momentum that An brings into this event. He played himself into a great playoff position with a couple of top finishes down the stretch at the Scottish Open and Wyndham Championship, and he enters the BMW Championship in decent shape at 38th in the FedEx Cup Standings. An’s 37th-place finish last week was again built off the back of great off-tee play, which saw him gain over three strokes on the field in that area.
As one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the PGA, An will have a distinct advantage at Olympia Fields, where he was able to post a surprisingly strong 12th-place finish in 2020. Now playing some of the best golf of his career, he will get another shot at this driver-heavy setup and looks poised to potentially make a run at a top-10 finish and a place at East Lake for the finale. An sets up as a great placement target for the top-10/20 betting markets once again.
