Sunday Night Football wraps up a full day of NFL action, with the Buffalo Bills hosting the disintegrating New York Giants. Coach Brian Daboll seems to have lost his mojo, in addition to his two best players. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Giants-Bills DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night slate, so check out these Giants-Bills DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Giants-Bills DFS Picks
New York Giants: 14.25 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Tyrod Taylor with the second-lowest fantasy projection for any signal-caller in the full Week 6 player pool. He is presiding over a disheveled offense that is going against a strong defense while likely missing several offensive linemen to boot. This includes tackles Andrew Thomas (hamstring), Matt Peart (shoulder) and center John Michael Schmitz (shoulder).
Taylor is now 34 years old and with his sixth franchise, though this is his second season with the Giants. Once upon a time, the Virginia Tech product was a productive starter with another New York team, even earning a Pro Bowl nod back in 2015 when he played for the Bills. This was his first campaign as a starter, and over the ensuing three-season stretch, he averaged just over 14 starts while rushing for an average of 525 yards per season with 14 total rushing scores. He also had a 62.6% completion rate and 51 passing touchdowns against just 16 interceptions. This worked out to just over 200 aerial yards per game, a 92.5 passer rating and a miniscule 1.3% interception rate.
Fast-forward over the next six years — where Taylor made just 10 starts — and we have a savvy veteran quarterback, though one who is clearly in the sunset phase of his career. Buffalo has the third-best pass DVOA this season, allowing only four total passing touchdowns against eight interceptions. Tua Tagovailoa (282) and Trevor Lawrence (315) are the only two opposing quarterbacks who have surpassed 185 passing yards against Buffalo through five games.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley has missed the last three games with a high-ankle sprain. Reports on Saturday night and Sunday morning seem optimistic that he will be able to return to action, though there is no real reason to rush him back into a buzz-saw situation. The Giants are currently 1-4 and tied with a handful of other teams for the second-worst record in the league. Buffalo has allowed three different 100-yard rushers this season, though even if Barkley is active, it is hard to envision him with more than 12 to 15 opportunities as a realistic baseline, with maybe a 1-in-10 chance of surpassing 18 touches.
Gary Brightwell is dealing with an ankle injury, getting in just two limited practices. Last week he was active, though he did not see the field in Miami, being supplanted by rookie Eric Gray as the backup to veteran Matt Breida. Gray had 12 carries and one target, playing on 42% of the snaps, while Breida had nine carries and one target and saw 58% of the snaps.
If Barkley plays, this duo is likely going to share the remaining snaps, with Breida getting the looks while the game is close and Gray likely seeing extensive run during mop-up duty if the Bills can take care of business in Buffalo.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Spin the wheel and make a deal — that is the best way to describe the New York receiving corps. Veteran Darius Slayton is playing the most snaps, with Wan’Dale Robinson closing the gap as he continues to be further removed from his shredded knee injury he suffered last season. Last week, Robinson was second on the team with six targets, playing about two-thirds of the snaps, and Slayton was third with four opportunities and a similar snap share.
Darren Waller (groin) once again led the way with 11 targets, and he also leads the team with 34 this season, followed by Slayton (24), Parris Campbell (23) and Robinson (17). Rookie Jalin Hyatt was not targeted last week, and he has only five looks this season despite playing on nearly 40% of the snaps. Veteran Sterling Sheppard had a season-high 28% snap share, along with two of his five targets.
This is a crowded situation, and now with a backup quarterback and a decimated offensive line against a team that just lost in London, well, tread lightly, friends. Waller, Robinson and Slayton should at least see north of four targets, with Campbell the next likely receiver to approach that low threshold.
Waller has been dealing with a sore groin for most of the season, but he is expected to play. If the game does get out of hand, Daniel Bellinger should get a few looks if Waller hits the sidelines once the game is out of reach. While Bellinger has mostly been employed as a blocker this year to help the offensive line, he was an adequate pass-catcher last year when he was thrust into the TE1 role in his rookie campaign.
Defense/Special Teams
New York has just five sacks this season, while Buffalo has allowed only nine. The Giants have just three takeaways, which is the second fewest in the league, and the Bills have allowed only seven in their five games.
Buffalo Bills: 29.25 Points
Quarterback
Last Sunday, the Bills saw their three-game winning streak end in London as the Jacksonville Jaguars knocked them off with a surprise win. Of course, “any given Sunday” and all that, plus with homefield advantage now nearly non-existent across the NFL and the Jags having already been in London for a week, we can’t fault the Bills too much for a loss.
That said, they are not likely to be caught off guard tonight, and the expectation is that Josh Allen and company should roll to an easy victory. The Giants have the 26th passing and 29th rushing DVOAs, so we should see the Bills able to move the ball at will.
Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in each of the last three games, but he has just 11 carries during this stretch. If there is an opening for an upfield run or a red zone touchdown, he will likely take it — but otherwise it is hard to see him risking injury in this game, even with his daredevil nature. He does have back-to-back games with 320-plus passing yards and six aerial scores, so he should still end up with one of the best fantasy scores of this game and potentially for all of Week 6.
Running Back
James Cook has been seeing a majority of the snaps and touches, but he is not impervious to bad games. In four of the five games, he does have at least three targets, though with just 18 on the season, he is fifth overall on the team in looks, behind both tight ends. He should see at least a dozen carries, as he has in each week while playing in the U.S., but Damien Harris and Latavius Murray each get a handful per game, and Murray is also a capable receiver.
On the touchdown front, it is Murray leading the way with a pair of rushing scores, while Harris and Cook each have one. Fullback Reggie Gilliam saw his lone target back in Week 2, and for his four-year career, he has offensive touches in only 14 games, with three carries for 3 yards in 2021 and a receiving high of 11 targets for nine catches, 76 yards and a score coming last year. Of course, with this being single-game DFS, he is probably live for a touchdown, just because.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs is fifth in the league with 50 targets and eighth in the league with 104 receiving yards per game, and he has a league-leading five touchdowns. Gabe Davis is the next man up, with 26 targets, though he has the most volatile opportunities, as evidenced by his three targets in Week 4 and season-high eight last Sunday in England.
Deonte Hardy is next with 14 targets, and while he gets only a couple per game, he still has more than Trent Sherfield (7) and Khalil Shakir (4) combined. There is a good chance that one of the tight ends will be out tonight, which would give a slight boost to this trio. However, we would be hard-pressed to know how those extra few targets would be dispersed.
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid is in the concussion protocol, and we have seen that the NFL is finally treating bruised brains with a little more care than in the past. He may not play tonight, and he is averaging nearly four targets per game as a giant receiver masquerading as a tight end in name only.
Dawson Knox has been dealing with a sore wrist and only practicing in a limited fashion, though he could play and still not see many targets tonight. For the season he has 18 looks, which is tied with Cook for the fourth most on the team. He and Kincaid have very little overlap in their roles, so even if Kincaid is out, it is still more of a boost for the tertiary receivers than Knox.
Defense/Special Teams
New York has allowed a league-high 30 sacks, while Buffalo also leads the league with 21 on the defensive side. The Bills also lead the league with 13 takeaways, and the Giants are in the middle of the pack with eight turnovers.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Giants-Bills DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Giants-Bills
- Josh Allen: It isn’t even close.
- Stefon Diggs: Lofty salary; raw points could be key on this slate if the G-Men dud.
- Tyrod Taylor: Thankfully, both DraftKings and FanDuel pre-emptively increased his salary.
- James Cook: Lead role but not the coveted “bell cow” role.
- Buffalo D/ST: Anything less than half a dozen combined turnovers and sacks will be disappointing; we will not be alone in rostering this unit tonight.
- Darren Waller: Expect Taylor to look his way just about as much as Daniel Jones has to date.
- Saquon Barkley: No injury layoff and at full health; he would move ahead of Cook, so this is not exactly a major drop, even assuming say a 60% to 70% of his typical workload.
- Wan’Dale Robinson: Works the short routes well, and that is about all Taylor will have time for tonight.
- Gabriel Davis: Needs to get there are efficiency, which, of course, is well within his modus operandi. #LatinFTMFW
- Tyler Bass: Nailed all 10 field goal attempts, including two from 50-plus and perfect on 18 PATs. Needs a couple field goals to be a difference-maker tonight, and his team may be living in the end zone.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Giants-Bills
- Graham Gano: Veteran is no stranger to outdoor games; still has a leg with an impressive 18 of 23 (78.2%) from beyond 50 yards in his last 39 games.
- Darius Slayton: Veteran has the edge on snaps and still a top-3 target option.
- Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid: This duo does not directly impede each other, but neither is high up on the target list. Even if Kincaid (concussion) is inactive, this is an appropriate ranking for Knox, as we are touchdown hunting either way.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Giants-Bills
- Matt Breida and Eric Gray: If Barkley is in, Breida should get around 10 looks; if Barkley is out Gray will join him plus have a chance for running out the clock in a laugher. Gray returns punts and kickoffs.
- Latavius Murray: Decent contributor, though as he heads toward his 34th birthday, do not expect him to get heavy run in mop-up duty.
- Deonte Harty: If Kincaid is out, Harty moves up to replace him in the rankings; also a dual-return role on special teams.
- Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt: Let personal preference and salary cap constraints be your guide.
- Damien Harris: Most likely to get mop-up duty, still needs a score to be a viable DFS play.
- New York D/ST: Likely will be on the field a lot; could get lucky with a pick-6 or scoop-and-score.
- Gary Brightwell and Daniel Bellinger: Too hard to trust; Bellinger has a path if Waller is limited or out.
- Trent Sherfield, Khalil Shakir and Sterling Shepard: In play for those getting to 50 or so lineups.
- Quinton Morris, Reggie Gilliam, Kyle Allen and Lawrence Cager: Differentiation at best.
Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips
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