Tuesday keeps the week rolling with a 14-game featured slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks today, look to RHP Spencer Strider and the Los Angeles Dodgers offense, led by Mookie Betts, for tonight’s tournaments.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Strider vs. Los Angeles Angels — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $12,500 | FanDuel $11,300 | Yahoo $55
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Spencer Strider rating out as the top fantasy producer today, which, of course, is not going to surprise anyone. Tonight the 24-year-old will be making his 42nd career start and 22nd of the season, and he is already arguably the best pitcher in the game. He leads the league with his 14.6 strikeouts per nine innings, which are 2.5 more than the next-closest qualified starter, RHP Kevin Gausman (12.1).
The main knock against Strider is that he has allowed four home runs in his last two games, but in those 12.1 innings he has 23 strikeouts, a pair of walks and has ceded just six earned runs. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, the new-look Angels really do not have any intimidating hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Rookie Mickey Moniak (30.2%, 172 plate appearances), veteran Mike Moustakas (25.1%, 183 PAs) and catcher Matt Thaiss (25.5%, 216 PAs) all have elevated strikeout rates against opposite-handed hurlers. Strider is a luxury option in tournaments, but he should be a staple in cash games (H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) and small-field leagues (500 entries or fewer).
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Jose Quintana at Kansas City Royals — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,100 | FanDuel $8,200 | Yahoo $33
Matchups drive a lot of decisions for MLB DFS, and that is how we go from laughing at someone like LHP Jose Quintana to actively adding him to our player portfolio. Though, we can skip over Quintana on FanDuel, as it will be nip and tuck to see if he closes out the sixth inning and thusly being in line for the quality start bonus. The 34-year-old is a strong point-per-dollar option on DraftKings and a decent option on Yahoo. Plus, we can use these savings to stack up a team like Atlanta, for which both of those DFS sites have put premium salaries on the key players.
Through his two starts this season, Quintana has thrown 77 and 94 pitches, recording 11 innings, four earned runs and eight strikeouts. If he were even 15% more on DraftKings and Yahoo, we would be skipping over him — but here we are. There is always a chance that Quintana will be traded before the 6 p.m. ET deadline today, but if he is taking the mound for the Mets, we can employ him in our tournament lineups, with the hopes he gets five mostly clean innings with a handful of strikeouts.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Lance Lynn vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,900 | FanDuel $9,400 | Yahoo $35
In a rare moment, FanDuel actually goosed the salary for a pitcher’s matchup, while DraftKings and Yahoo overlooked RHP Lance Lynn getting dealt to the Dodgers. This is a cushy landing spot, as the 36-year-old has been dreadful this season with a 6.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 1.65 home runs per nine innings. To his credit, Lynn at least is generating strikeouts, though even a career-best 10.8 per nine innings are not enough to perfume this pig of a season.
Skip Lynn on the blue site where his salary is overcorrected, but it is worth looking to the venerable veteran as an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo. The projected Oakland lineup has a 26.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last two seasons. Plus, the youth movement is on with Zack Gelof, Cody Thomas and Tyler Soderstrom, who have a combined 137 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in The Show.
It is worth having an “insurance stack” of A’s against Lynn tonight, with JJ Bleday, Seth Brown and Gelof having the best power projections. We could see them knock a couple out of Dodger Stadium if Lynn continues his putrid current form. In his last three games, Lynn has allowed 20 runs and six home runs while walking eight in just 16.2 innings.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles at LHP Hyun Jin Ryu — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool has the Baltimore Orioles looking good against LHP Hyun Jin Ryu, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery. The 36-year-old has made four rehabilitation starts in the minors, logging 85 pitches in his most recent appearance. In six starts prior to his injury in 2022, Ryu logged just 27 innings, with only 16 strikeouts, a 5.67 ERA, a 4.78 FIP and a paltry 67 ERA+, which is what should have gamers flocking to the Orioles.
Once upon a time, Ryu was a frontline ace, and he finished second in the 2019 National League Cy Young Award voting in his final season with the Dodgers when he led the league with a 2.32 ERA and 179 ERA+. During the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Ryu moved to the Blue Jays and finished third in the American League Cy Young Award race. However, injuries and Father Time have taken their toll on the former pitching phenom.
Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle are the trio to target. Full stacks can include veterans Austin Hays or Ramon Urias as well as youngster Jordan Westburg.
Evening Slate Target: New York Mets at RHP Zack Greinke — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
While RHP Zack Greinke has had a long and illustrious career, he is ready to hang up his cleats. In three starts this month, the 39-year-old has allowed five home runs and 12 earned runs across 14.1 innings. In three of his last six appearances, he has ceded multiple home runs, and he has five — yes only FIVE — strikeouts in his last 20.1 innings. It is going to be hot and humid in Kaufmann Stadium tonight, which bodes well for home runs.
Even with all of their struggles, the Mets have a lot of pop up and down the lineup. Pete Alonso boasts a .268 ISO in his last 801 same-handed matchups, and switch-hitter Francisco Lindor is excellent from the left side of the plate. Daniel Vogelbach provides differentiation on DraftKings and Yahoo, where we are forced to choose between him and Alonso at the first base slot.
Brandon Nimmo is all but assured of five plate appearances on the road from his leadoff slot, and Francisco Alvarez is having a tremendous season as a rookie catcher, both behind the plate and in the batter’s box, where he has already slugged 20 round-trippers. Tommy Pham and Jeff McNeil are also in play to connect the dots if they are in the top half of the order.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Ken Waldichuk — 5.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Tonight the Dodgers are in a good spot against LHP Ken Waldichuk and any potential opener that Oakland elects to go with to handle the first handful of hitters. Mookie Betts missed the last two games with ankle soreness, but indications are that he will be back in the leadoff slot for Los Angeles. Amed Rosario was a nice player to land from the Guardians, and he should be in the heart of the order to take advantage of his right-handed bat with a southpaw on the mound. Kike Hernandez is back with the team now that his dalliance with Boston has concluded, and he is the punt du jour. Chris Taylor is also in the mix as a discount dandy, depending on where he lands in the lineup.
Catcher Will Smith rates out as the best at his position, and Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy each have a long track record of success in same-handed matchups. The Dodgers are a solid backup plan if the Coors Field weather proves untenable.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Normally I am fired up to roster LHP Framber Valdez in DFS. However, tonight I am actually willing to pick on him in the sports wagering market. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see that his “true odds” of landing under 4.5 strikeouts at +130 is a slight decrease when compared to the +125 line that is available. It is my belief that this has more to do with the matchup against the strikeout-stingy Cleveland Guardians than some underlying metrics.
Though I am far from a scout or baseball wizard, it is interesting to note that Valdez has not thrown a cutter in any of his last three starts. The first game against the Angels when this occurred, Valdez crushed for 13 strikeouts. However, he did allow two home runs in that game and two more in his last start. For his career, he has 51 home runs allowed, but four have come in his last three outings. Also, in 8.2 combined innings against Texas and Oakland in his last two tilts, the 29-year-old recorded just five total strikeouts.
Reading a couple of articles where the southpaw was asked about his abandonment of his cutter, he said it was just part of his new strategy. There are three explanations: 1) nothing to see in a small sample size; 2) he could come right back tonight with a 15% to 20% use of his cutter; or 3) he could be harboring some hidden injury or discomfort, and we could see him fall short of the five strikeouts needed for this under to come to fruition. That is something I am willing to wager on in the hopes of being ahead of the curve on scenario 3.
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Final Thoughts for Tuesday, August 1 | MLB DFS Picks
Coors Field again has storms throughout the game window. In a wild twist, they managed to play last night — even when it was raining. If only the Washington Nationals had half the fortitude of the Rockies. We are likely to be playing the guessing game again tonight with the Denver weather, so buckle up and grab your lucky rabbit foot.
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