Thursday brings a frontloaded seven-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to a pair of lefties tonight in Tarik Skubal and Ranger Suarez, while hitters can be selected from the Orioles and Dodgers as the primary options.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 21
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Tarik Skubal at Oakland Athletics — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $45
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool loves LHP Tarik Skubal in his matchup against the anemic Oakland offense, particularly after he just cruised through the Angels in Anaheim, with seven innings of one-run ball and nine strikeouts. Prior to this start, he had two against the White Sox, one at home and one in Chicago. All told, in this trio of tilts, the southpaw has been sublime with a 1.42 ERA and just 13 baserunners, accompanied by a lofty 25 strikeouts in 19 innings. Sometimes it is just easy to click on the best option and move on.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Ranger Suarez vs. New York Mets — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,900 | FanDuel $9,300 | Yahoo $33
Ultimately, LHP Ranger Suarez ends up with the wild card target because he is being recommended over LHP Max Fried and RHPs Gerrit Cole and Jose Berrios. Fried has a decent matchup against Washington, but the Nationals do a good job of limiting strikeouts and Fried is at an apex salary. Cole and Berrios are squaring off in New York, and going against the respective offenses is not exactly a picnic.
Over his last half dozen starts, Suarez has a sweet 2.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP and a .250 batting average against, with 36 strikeouts in 34.2 innings. His salary on DraftKings and Yahoo makes him an excellent SP2 option and almost as easy of a click as Skubal. On FanDuel, where the quality start bonus looms large, Suarez is still worthy of tournament consideration, as he has a career-high 11 quality starts in just 20 appearances.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles vs. RHP Hunter Gaddis — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Currently, there is not an official starting pitcher listed for Cleveland, but several sites are projecting RHP Hunter Gaddis to be recalled from Triple-A. Gaddis did pitch on Sunday, but it was an abbreviated outing of just 27 pitches, so he could be good to go today for around 70 to 75 pitches if he gets the nod. The Guardians used three relievers yesterday and five on Tuesday, with two pitching on both days.
Baltimore is a strong team to target in bullpen games because two of its best batters can swing the stick from either side of the plate. Anthony Santander and catcher Adley Rutschman are this dynamic duo, but even better — there is only one lefty in the Cleveland bullpen, so that means hot-hitting Ryan O’Hearn is less of a pinch-hit risk and there is a good chance left-handed rookie Gunnar Henderson will lead off.
Full stacks can be rounded out with the likes of Cedric Mullins or even recent call-up Heston Kjerstad.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Kyle Harrison — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is highlighting the Dodgers, who will be facing LHP Kyle Harrison. Most of their right-handed hitters have seen a salary dip, as it has been a minute since Los Angeles saw a southpaw. Harrison is the top-ranked prospect in the San Francisco organization, but he has just 65.2 innings at the Triple-A level, and at 21 years old, does not have much overall experience in the minors, having been a third-round selection right out of high school in the 2020 MLB Draft.
Harrison has flashed talent, but power has been an issue through his five appearances in The Show, with 2.59 home runs per nine innings leading to a 5.18 ERA, 5.11 xERA and a 5.72 FIP. Control was an issue in the minors as well; we just haven’t seen that crop up in the big leagues, as he has been getting hit hard instead.
Catcher Will Smith had Wednesday off, so he should be in his customary spot in the middle of the lineup tonight, and in his last 276 plate appearances against opposite-handed pitching, he has raked his way to a .367 wOBA and a .214 ISO. Even with various injuries, veteran J.D. Martinez has been amazing against lefties, with a .382 wOBA and a .302 ISO. That makes this one of the better stretches in a long and productive career.
Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy absolutely mash against fellow lefties, and Mookie Betts has been otherworldly against everyone this season at the plate while also playing a lot of infield. Finally, we get to some discount dandies, with Chris Taylor, Amed Rosario and Kike Hernandez being intriguing options. Rosario is the biggest pinch-hit risk, but he also is the most likely to draw the best lineup spot among this trio to maximize his at-bats.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Surprisingly, there are not that many player props currently posted in the sports wagering market that have much value. The True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows that RHP Jake Irvin has -149 “true odds” of staying below five strikeouts, while this wager is currently available at -155, which is essentially a neutral opportunity.
Irvin is facing the Atlanta offense tonight, which is far from forgiving to pitchers of either handedness, and the projected lineup has a low 19.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. The rookie has held his own in the rotation, but he has a paltry 19.1% strikeout rate and mostly survives by having his defense take care of the heavy lifting.
The 25-year-old is already 12 innings over his prior career high, which was set all the way back in 2019 before the pandemic. Irvin has notched five or more strikeouts in just 9 of 23 (39.1%) appearances. Again, do not feel pressured into making wagers just to get action; that can be a quick path to needing to redeposit, which is never fun.
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Final Thoughts for Thursday, September 21 | MLB DFS Picks
On the featured slate, there is a slim chance for rain in Chicago, but it does not appear to be game-ending by any stretch.
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