Friday kicks off the holiday weekend with a 14-game featured slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, look to former Mets on the mound, with RHPs Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander appearing to be strong plays in all formats. Plus, there is a trio of countermoves against a popular Coors Field Extravaganza.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Max Scherzer vs. Minnesota Twins — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $50
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes the matchup for RHP Max Scherzer tonight against the strikeout-happy Minnesota Twins. Since donning a Texas uniform, the Rangers have been victorious in four of Scherzer’s five starts. He has been outstanding during this stretch, with a 2.64 ERA and 0.912 WHIP accompanied by a whopping 40 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. On Saturday, we saw this same matchup in Minnesota, with Mad Max striking out 10 batters on the way to a two-run, seven-inning performance. The projected lineup for the Twins does have some pop, but it also is teeming with strikeouts, as this collection of hitters has a 23.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons and a 25.8% rate this year.
The only counterargument against Scherzer is that there is a game in Coors Field tonight, where the Toronto Blue Jays have an implied run total that is likely to be a touch over seven for a matchup against RHP Chris Flexen in 90-degree weather with a light breeze out to centerfield.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Justin Verlander vs. New York Yankees — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $46
Similar to his former teammate listed above, RHP Justin Verlander has been stellar since escaping from the New York Mets and returning to the Astros. Houston has won four of Verlander’s five starts, with a 2-1 loss to the Yankees in the Bronx being the only blemish. In these outings, Verlander has produced a 2.79 ERA and a 1.241 WHIP, along with one strikeout per frame.
D.J. LeMahieu has been on a heater, with five of his 14 home runs coming in his last nine games, but it has otherwise been a career-worst numbers across the board for the 35-year-old. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can send any pitch over the wall, but they each strike out in nearly one-third of their at-bats. The rest of the lineup is mostly unproven talent or below replacement level.
The Yankees are in a freefall, and the Astros are locked in as they try to chase down the Rays and Orioles for the best record in the American League while also surpassing pesky AL West rivals (Seattle and Texas) for the divisional crown. The ‘Stros are -200 favorites tonight, and Verlander should be in a position for both the quality start bonus (FanDuel) and a chance at the win bonus.
Between the roster expansion to 28 players today and Harrison Bader being put through waivers and claimed by Cincinnati, we are going to see the Yankee youngsters down that stretch. In addition to Anthony Volpe, there is another trio of fresh-faced rookies in 20-year-old outfielder Jasson Dominguez and 24-year-old catcher Austin Wells, who were just called up for the first time, and 22-year-old outfielder Everson Pereira, who has a grand total of 35 at-bats in The Show.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP JP Sears vs. Los Angles Angels — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $8,700 | Yahoo $39
There is no perfuming this pig; LHP JP Sears has been an unmitigated disaster over his five August starts, with an 8.25 ERA and a dozen walks in just 24 innings. The silver lining is that he has a 5.85 FIP, which is not good but indicates he has had a lot of bad luck. His 29 strikeouts during this timeframe and his reasonable salary are what this play is really about for DFS gamers.
When compared to Sears, the only thing that stinks more in California right now is the stench coming from the decaying remains of the Angels’ season. Mike Trout is back on the injured list after a one-game appearance, and, of course, Shohei Ohtani has an elbow injury that will prevent him from pitching this season and potentially putting that aspect of his skillset permanently on hold. Anthony Rendon, C.J. Cron, Zach Neto, Taylor Ward, Gio Urshela, Jo Adell, Max Stassi and Matt Thaiss are out as well. Hunter Renfroe was just put through waivers, and rookie Mickey Moniak is day-to-day with a sore back. The projected lineup for Los Angeles has a 25.6% strikeout rate against lefties over the last season-plus. There is still power risk with this lineup, but it has more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese at the moment.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays at RHP Cal Quantrill — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
It sounds like RHP Cal Quantrill is going to be recalled from the minors for tonight’s game. In his last four MLB appearances, he has allowed 25 runs across 16 innings but somehow only one round-tripper — with seven other extra-base hits. This has resulted in a 14.06 ERA and .425 batting average against. There theoretically has been some bad luck involved, as evidenced by his 4.45 FIP, but considering he has just nine strikeouts in these combined appearances, how much “better” could things really be for the veteran hurler?
The top five hitters on the lineup card are where the focus should be tonight, with Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe being the preferred order of preference when considering projected fantasy production, popularity, price and position eligibility. It is unlikely that this stack will be overly popular, but depending on where he is in the batting order, Luke Raley does have ample power against opposite-handed pitchers, and rookie Osleivis Basabe can be had for a song.
Evening Slate Target: Detroit Tigers at RHP Touki Toussaint — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
When was the last time we saw an implied run total cresting toward five for the Detroit Tigers?! That is an indictment of the masterpieces abominations that have been recently crafted by RHP Touki Toussaint. In his last five outings, spanning 23.1 innings, Toussaint has handed out 21 free passes and half a dozen longballs on his way to a 6.94 ERA, 6.95 FIP and a .256 batting average against. He does have 29 strikeouts, but based on the results, opposing offenses are all too happy to let Toussaint continue to “announce his presence with authority” a la Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh.
The Motor City Kitties are an outstanding discount stack that can be employed in conjunction with the top pitchers or the teams in the Coors Field Extravaganza. They are fine one-offs as well, but considering them as a main stack may still be a bit ambitious. Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene would be the trio to target. Akil Baddoo is worthy of consideration if he is hitting leadoff, and then Parker Meadows and Javier Baez are fringe selections for the evening sub-slate.
One other thing to consider about Baddoo is that he has about a 22% chance of stealing a base tonight, and if we get Yasmani Grandal behind the plate, he has allowed the second-most stolen bases this season. If you can find Baddoo at a +400 or better line tonight to swipe a bag, he is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market. Keep in mind not all books offer this particular player prop.
Late Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles at RHP Zach Davies — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
This has been a rough season for RHP Zach Davies. The 30-year-old has dealt with a sore back and the ignominy of a 6.93 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and just 51 strikeouts in 62.1 innings. In a fun twist, while I like to make the joke that there is no “K” in his name and no “K” in his game, Davies has produced a career-best 7.4 strikeouts and 1.16 home runs per nine innings, and he has been issuing walks like they are going out of style (4.2 per nine innings).
The Chase Field roof is slated to be closed for this homestand against Baltimore, which is a slight negative to hitters but not enough to dissuade gamers from rolling with the Batters of Birdland tonight. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle are the core four to target in this matchup. The second wave of hitters includes Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn and Austin Hays as the discounted/differentiation bats.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight we can consider Anthony Volpe in the sports wagering market, as he is approaching a milestone number of 25 stolen bases this season. He is sitting at 21, and while he nabbed only two bags in August, one came two days ago, so we know he is still capable and not worn down by the long season.
Currently Volpe has +470 line to swipe a bag, but looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the +406 line for him to surpass this milestone means this line is inefficient by almost 11%. We are looking at an 18% likelihood of Volpe teleporting himself to the next bag, and that figure increases to almost 20% if Martin Maldonado is behind the plate.
This season Maldonado has allowed 63 successful steals on his watch, which ranks eighth overall, with three of the catchers ahead of him logging more innings. The worst catcher in the league at preventing steals is Keibert Ruiz, who has watched 94 runners steal on him this season, which is five more than Grandal and 31 more than Maldonado.
Miami’s Jazz Chisholm Jr. has dealt with a variety of injuries this season, including a hamstring issue that has kept him more focused on hitting than running on the base paths. He does have two steals in his last 14 games, and he may be tempted tonight against Ruiz if he is feeling frisky. This is a secondary recommendation, with Volpe being the preferred play. However, we may get a decent line for Chisholm once the books start posting this prop, so look for anything at +365 or better as the breakeven line.
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Final Thoughts for Friday, September 1 | MLB DFS Picks
Friday looks like mostly smooth sailing from a precipitation standpoint. Most outdoor venues will be experiencing temperatures in the low- to mid-80s during the respective game windows.
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