Friday wraps up the week with a robust 12-game featured slate that has a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is reaching forward to include all 15 games, with an earlier lock time of 6:40 p.m. ET. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Ranger Suarez and Andrew Abbott as key arms. The Coors Field Extravaganza looms large, though Philadelphia and Kansas City provide pivots.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 10
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Ranger Suarez at Miami Marlins — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $11,100 | Yahoo $54
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has bestowed high honors on LHP Ranger Suarez, assigning the second-best probability of being a top-2 pitcher on DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only RHP Tyler Glasnow, who is facing the Padres in San Diego tonight. Suarez has always been a good pitcher, but everything is going his way this season, as he has a 6-0 record after seven starts, a 1.72 ERA and a league-leading 0.72 WHIP.
While regression will occur, his underlying advanced metrics have him for a 2.23 xERA, 2.82 FIP and 2.61 xFIP. The biggest difference is that he has cut his walk rate down to one-third of what it was last year, and while his 88.8% strand rate is simply unsustainable, those are really the only variables that have changed over last season.
Clearly Suarez is a luxury option tonight, but he is the one to covet for those willing to skip out on a bopper or two in Coors Field.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Andrew Abbott at San Francisco Giants — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,700 | FanDuel $8,300 | Yahoo $41
There is a strong case to be made that LHP Andrew Abbott should actually change places with tonight’s wild card recommendation, though considering Abbott has made seven starts, we at least know that he is capable of a full workload, having topped 100 pitches twice and averaging 91 per appearance on the season.
The DraftKings salary leaves little risk, though it also is pushing Abbott up the popularity projections, as the savings are welcomed by those loading up on Coors Field hitters. Abbott is good for right around a strikeout per inning, but he has allowed two home runs in three of his last five starts, which is the downside of him challenging hitters. Fortunately, this game is in San Francisco, and while it is no longer the extremely pitching-friendly venue it was after the renovations a few years ago, it is better than Great American Ballpark.
Once again, the Giants lack any terrifying bats, and the projected lineup has five players striking out at a 24% rate or higher over the last year against righties.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $8,000 | Yahoo $43
This is an excellent landing spot for RHP Bryan Woo, who is expected to be activated from the injured list today. Woo was with Cal Poly San Luis Obispo for three seasons, mostly as a reliever, where he had outstanding strikeouts but inconsistent results, courtesy of control issues. Seattle selected him in the 2021 MLB Draft as a sixth-rounder and began turning him into a starter. His strikeouts actually increased, while his walks moved down to a more palatable level, and last year he made the jump from Double-A straight to The Show.
Woo had an elbow issue, which delayed his spring, though he has made three starts in Triple-A, increasing his pitch count from 35 to 49 to 67. Something around 80 pitches is a likely cap tonight. Oakland seems to be who we thought they were, and the six-game winning streak has been all but forgotten with the squad dropping four of the last five games. The one slight concern is that the Athletics have scored 53 runs over the last six games, including 11 in a one-run loss to Texas on Wednesday.
The A’s are still below average when it comes to run production, but the recent surge has pushed them at least towards respectability, moving them ahead of the dregs of the league. Five hitters in the projected lineup have struck out at a 24% clip or higher against right-handed pitching over the last season and change, which bodes well for Woo to put together a decent fantasy effort in four or five innings of work tonight.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies at LHP Trevor Rogers — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is highlighting the Dodgers and Phillies as Coors Field antidotes tonight. Los Angeles has made this article series a couple times in the last week, so let’s take a gander at Philadelphia. Trea Turner is out with a hamstring strain that could keep him on the shelf until July, and his absence does promote hitters into different spots in the batting order.
This is shaping up to be another lost season for the Marlins, and they have begun trading away assets like two-time batting champion Luis Arraez. Unfortunately, LHP Trevor Rogers seems to be the poster boy for this futility. The 26-year-old is coming off a dreadful start, having allowed eight runs in 2.1 innings in what turned out to be a 20-4 loss to the Athletics in Oakland. The Marlins have not won any of the seven games that Rogers started, and he is 0-5 himself.
All four of Roger’s home runs have come in the last three games, and for some reason control has been an issue this year as well. While we do not want to rely on batter vs. pitcher numbers, Rogers at least has been able to find success against the current Philadelphia hitters. Rogers was an All-Star in 2021, but with his velocity dropping each start of the season, he could have a mechanical issue, or even worse, he may be hiding an injury or some sort of discomfort. Keep in mind he missed most of last year with a strained left biceps muscle.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber crush fellow lefties, and that has been an issue for Rogers, as he has allowed a .204 ISO in his last 55 same-handed matchups. Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos are the regulars who expect to see a bump in the lineup with Turner out. Bryson Stott is likely to be replaced by White Merrifield or Edmundo Sosa, who should cover the middle infield, plus catcher J.T. Realmuto should be a key cog of any stack.
Late Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals at RHP Griffin Canning — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Last night Kansas City exceeded all expectations as the recommended stack, with 10 runs, five doubles, two home runs and three stolen bases. Tonight the Royals will be facing RHP Griffin Canning, who has been trending in the right direction after a dismal start, but over his last three appearances, he has still scuffled to a 5.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10 strikeouts and a rough eight walks in these 16 innings.
Look to any of the Royals with power as the foundation for stacks tonight like Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey and Hunter Renfroe, and if human wind machine Nelson Velazquez is in the lineup, he too is a strong contender for stacks. Catcher Salvador Perez and leadoff man Maikel Garcia are secondary options but are perfectly viable contributors for extra synergy.
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Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight RHP Javier Assad looks like a pitcher to target for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop, which is currently available on DraftKings at -110. Assad is projected for 4.2 strikeouts today, which is under tonight’s milestone but also not too far off the 4.5 threshold we need him to stay below.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -124 “true odds,” so the -110 currently posted provides a fantastic 5.5% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with odds. This can be seen with sharp book Pinnacle all the way down at -143, which is downright punitive by comparison. Be a savvy shopper!
Assad is having a great season with a 1.66 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across seven starts, spanning 38.0 innings. His 31 strikeouts are a little higher than normal, but considering in his last four starts he has four, one, five and three whiffs, it is already normalizing. Pittsburgh is likely to put forth a lineup with around half of the hitters striking out above league average against right-handed hurlers, but it really is just above league average with a 22.3% rate since last season. This group is also relatively patient at the plate with an 8.9% walk rate in this same timeframe, so hopefully the likes of Andrew McCutchen, Connor Joe, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz and even Rowdy Tellez work together to burn through Assad’s pitch count before he can cobble together five punchouts.
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Final Thoughts for Friday, May 10 — MLB DFS Picks
Outside of some potential in-game precipitation for New York, the featured slate looks pretty risk free. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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