With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. That’s why we need MLB DFS pivots.
The goal in this breakdown is to find which pitchers can give lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being undrowned across the field. Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential.
Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find the best MLB DFS pivots for today.
Best MLB DFS Pivots Today: Yusei Kikuchi and More (May 10)
Yusei Kikuchi ($9,600)
Kikuchi takes on the Twins tonight at home, where he has been incredible this season, recording a 28.8% strikeout percentage and a 2.50 xFIP in 18 innings. Looking at Kikuchi in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, he is currently the highest-leveraged pitcher at 9% while having a 12.8% chance at being a top-2 arm, fourth-highest on the slate. What makes Kikuchi so interesting tonight is his minimal 3.8% projected ownership, second lowest among pitchers $8,000 and up. I’m going to assume that his ownership is a result of him having an enormous price tag bump, coming in at $9,600, which is unappealing. Nonetheless, Kikuchi’s high leverage projection makes him incredibly interesting in large-field GPPs, and he is a top pivot for tonight’s slate.
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Michael King ($7,100)
This is a risky matchup as King faces off against the Dodgers, but he does get a slight park advantage with the game being in Petco Park. The total in this game originally opened at 8.0 but has dropped to 7.5 despite 98% of bets being on the under at BetMGM, indication of big money coming in on the under. King is projected for 6% ownership while having the fourth-highest chance as being a top-2 value pitcher at 13.4%. That is great considering he has a 10% chance of being a top-2 arm overall, seventh highest on the slate, and he still offers positive leverage at 4.3%.
King is more of a strictly large-field GPP play, the reason being his low salary opening up the path to some high-priced stacks like the Rangers in Coors. Once again, it is a very risky decision anytime you take a pitcher against the Dodgers, but Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool believes he has the chance at being one of the best value arms tonight.
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