Thursday is a rare frontloaded day with no games after 6:10 p.m. ET. Each DFS site is handling the early action differently with featured slates of nine or 10 games, but DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo all agree on a standard lock time of 1:05 p.m. ET. Before you lock in lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP George Kirby in Oakland against the Athletics. Outside of the Coors Field Extravaganza, the Cubs and Mariners are strong offensive options.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Justin Verlander at Detroit Tigers — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,800 | FanDuel $11,500 | Yahoo $47
Today will be the first start for RHP Justin Verlander since the postseason. Keep in mind he was scratched just before Opening Day with a muscle strain behind his throwing shoulder. The 40-year-old made one Double-A rehabilitation start, last Friday where he logged 69 pitches and reached 95 mph with his fastball.
We will want to temper expectations of a glorious Verlander start against the Mets just seeing what life was like for the last few weeks without Verlander and Max Scherzer. Heck, Verlander is the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, receiving his third such honor for his triumphs and tribulations in his final year with the Astros.
This will be considered a lost season for the Mets, without a deep playoff run. Considering all of these variables, rolling with Verlander against the worst offense in baseball is worth the salary on a per pitch basis, even if he caps out around 80 to 85 throws.
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Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: RHP George Kirby at Oakland Athletics — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:37 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $46
On the afternoon slate, RHP George Kirby is the clear top selection. The 25-year-old righty is also a strong option on the main slate in his matchup with the hapless Athletics in pitching friendly RingCentral Coliseum in Oakland. For the season, the A’s are averaging only 3.74 runs per game and they have lost 16 of their last 19 tilts.
Kirby has managed to improve on his stellar rookie campaign and through five starts he has a 2.93 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and the only knock against him is a 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings rate. That should increase as last year the 25-year-old averaged one per inning. If he can neutralize Ramon Laureano, Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers, Kirby should be in line for a quality start and a chance for the win bonus.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Chicago Cubs at LHP Patrick Corbin — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
Shout out to LHP Patrick Corbin who has made dramatic improvements over his last four starts allowing only four home runs with a 4.84 ERA, 5.15 FIP and even notching a win. Yes, that was sarcasm, since that font is not available on WordPress, I want to be clear. While Jordan Lyles (73 home runs) finally took the mantle from Corbin (70 home runs) this ignominious title has gone back and forth between this duo since the beginning of the 2021 season. The only thing keeping Corbin from being DFA’d, like fellow southpaw Madison Bumgarner is that the Nationals are going absolutely nowhere and with RHP Stephen Strasburg once again injured, they are lucky to fill out a full rotation every five days.
For some reason the Cubs have decided that Patrick Wisdom simply must not appear in a top-six lineup slot. This season he leads the league in all sorts of wonderful advanced metrics measuring power and expected outcomes. His reality is pretty good as well with a .375 wOBA and an absurd .368 ISO in 40 plate appearances against southpaws this season. Look to him in the home run market today where his early line on some sites is +380 and while that will be bet down, anything over +300 looks good.
Former MVP Cody Bellinger also has been lights out since leaving Los Angeles. This season in 43 lefty/lefty matchups he has a .437 wOBA and an otherworldly .417 ISO. He is a steal on DraftKings at $4,200 for this matchup and still palatable on FanDuel at $4,200. The $26 salary cap hit on Yahoo is a little daunting however. He too is an option in the home run market at anything +400 with one early book posting him at +575.
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Rounding out the Cubbies, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Seiya Suzuki are strong options. Ian Happ is likely to be in the heart of the order and he has been slumping this season. Skipping him in favor of Wisdom or Bellinger, even if they are on an island and not adjacent to the rest of the stack will provide excellent differentiation against other Chicago stacks.
Late-Afternoon Slate Target: Seattle Mariners at RHP Drew Rucinski — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:37 p.m. ET
Of course, the Coors Field Extravaganza will be the spot to target on every slate where it is available, the Mariners look good against RHP Drew Rucinski, who has been pitching in the KBO for the last four seasons.
The 34-year-old had three starts this spring with Triple-A Las Vegas, where he allowed a 6.52 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 9.2 innings. Last Friday Rucinski was knocked around by the Reds with 11 hits in 5.2 innings, only one out of which was recorded via strikeout. Rucinski is pitching to contact in what is likely his last hurrah in The Show.
Though Julio Rodriguez is the only “terrifying” hitter in the Seattle lineup, the Mariners have above-average options up and down the batting order. Jarred Kelenic, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez and Ty France will be the popular options, but do not be afraid to look to the bottom of the order for differentiation. J.P. Crawford and Taylor Trammell have had some moments and while they have not yet provided consistency, they do have hidden upside. Plus veteran Kolten Wong still has moment, particularly when he has the platoon-advantage.
Final Thoughts for Thursday, May 4 | MLB DFS Picks
Thursday looks like a mostly precipitation-free day with chances of sprinkles up to brief showers in Boston, Colorado, Kansas City, Oakland and Washington. The coverage does not appear to be overly dense, so aside from a potential in-game delay, we should avoid any postponed games.
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