Tuesday provides a little early action and then a stellar 11-game featured slate with a first pitch of 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including LHP Jordan Montgomery in a home matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. In addition to the Coors Field Extravaganza, take a look at the Baltimore Orioles as they head around the Beltway to face RHP Josiah Gray in Nationals Park.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $39
So far this season, LHP Jordan Montgomery has had three successful starts against the Pirates, Blue Jays and Brewers. Across 75 batters, he has allowed only six extra-base hits, all doubles. In turn he is striking out nearly one hitter per inning, and his control has been above average as well.
Arizona is set up to be better against lefties than righties; however, it is not the most daunting of lineups. Christian Walker and switch-hitter Ketel Marte are legitimate threats to southpaws, but after that it drops off to the likes of veteran Evan Longoria and the enigmatic Nick Ahmed. The Yahoo salary is phenomenal, and we are not exactly breaking the bank for him on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert vs. Milwaukee Brewers — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $44
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has identified RHP Logan Gilbert as one of the most “overleverage” option on the main and late slates. Using DraftKings as the example, currently Gilbert has a 16% chance of being a top-two pitcher, which is the third best probability. However, he is also the most popular pitcher, along with RHP Spencer Strider, with both players projected to be on around 33% of all rosters in the large-field tournaments. This 33% popularity less the 16% chance of success indicates that Gilbert will be “over-rostered” by 17%.
Now for MLB DFS, this is going to be a common occurrence with pitchers since there are far fewer of them in play than every team rolling out nine hitters. Plus, The Masses will rightfully be flocking to the best matchups or point-per-dollar options. We can combat this by just making sure to find differentiation with our second pitcher or, of course, whichever stacks and one-offs we are utilizing for the slate.
Gilbert has been a nice surprise for Mariners fans, and if he continues on his current trajectory, he will likely inherit the “ace” mantle from Luis Castillo in a couple years. Tonight will be only the 60th start for Gilbert in The Show. However, the 25-year-old has made great strides with his control and ability to limit power, and he is collecting nearly one strikeout per inning. The Brewers are not a deep offense, and as long as Gilbert can neutralize Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames, he should be in line for a strong start.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Brad Keller vs. Texas Rangers — 4.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,600 | FanDuel $8,800 | Yahoo $30
The price is right on DraftKings and Yahoo, which makes RHP Brad Keller an intriguing SP2 target. This all comes down to his recent success, which has been a result of him developing a curveball. In prior seasons, Keller mostly relied on a mid-90s fastball and a slider in the upper 80s, with the occasional changeup mixed in to keep hitters off balance. This year, for the first time in his MLB career, he is using a curveball nearly one quarter of the time. There are several articles breaking down this development, which in conjunction with adding more break to his slider, could lead to sustainable success. This is a spot to get to early before his salary begins to creep up.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles at RHP Josiah Gray — 5.0 implied runs
Only slightly behind Patrick Corbin Day is Josiah Gray Day, as this Washington duo continues to allow extra-base hits at an alarming rate. The Batters of Birdland are making the short trip from Baltimore around the Beltway to Nationals Park this afternoon, and while temperatures are a little cooler on Tuesday, the Orioles still boast a 5.0 implied team total.
Last year Gray led the league with 38 home runs allowed, among 62 total extra-base hits. This season he has already ceded four round-trippers through three starts, though in a “Baseball being Baseball” moment, he managed to hold the Rockies to one run across six innings in Coors Field. Sadly that lonely run was the only one of the game, so the 25-year-old was still saddled with the loss.
Opposite-handed hitters have had Gray’s number, with a .398 wOBA and a .315 ISO since the beginning of last year. Right-handed batsmen have been productive as well, with a robust .199 ISO during this same stretch. Primary targets today will be switch-hitters Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander, who are arguably the two best Baltimore bats. Cedric Mullins will be at the top of the order, and he should hold the platoon advantage for most of the game, with the Nationals having only one lefty in the bullpen.
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Ryan Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo can be utilized to round out full stacks, with Mateo the most appealing for his stolen base upside in addition to gap power.
Just for the record, as always, the Coors Field Extravaganza is in play. Tonight each team has an implied run total cresting over 6.5, and with a pair of washed-up righties on the mound, load up on the lefties from each team. Then target the right-handed power bats, and if you still have roster slots left, look to the bat boys.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP Tylor Megill — 4.8 implied runs
Smoke and mirrors — that is the best way to describe the first three starts for RHP Tyler Megill. The sterling 3-0 record with a 2.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP is masking his underlying metrics. Two of his outings have been against the Marlins, with one coming in his home park against the Padres. Last year Megill bounced between the rotation and the bullpen, with subpar results. Walks have always been an issue, and his strikeout stuff is inconsistent. The 27-year-old is best suited as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater or a multi-inning reliever.
Across his last 139 right-lefty matchups, Megill has allowed a .371 wOBA, a .210 ISO and a paltry 18% strikeout rate. The red-hot bat of Max Muncy, the cool and steady production of Freddie Freeman and youngster James Outman are the opposite-handed trio to target in the upper portion of the batting order. Former Red Sox stalwarts Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez can be utilized to round out full stacks.
Final Thoughts for Tuesday, April 18 | MLB DFS Picks
Today the weather looks like it will cooperate after a pair of games were washed out on Monday.
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