The shorter MLB slate has some decent spots for MLB pick’em contests, though right now Brewers-Dodgers is making the most noise with both bats and arms. With that said, today we are checking out Sleeper Fantasy and finding the best higher/lower MLB plays on the site. And don’t forget: If you are new to Sleeper, you can use the Sleeper Fantasy promo code ‘STOKASTIC’ when you sign up to get a deposit match up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for Sleeper’s MLB pick’em contest.
Looking for more MLB DFS and pick’em advice? Check out our MLB articles and tools, including our industry-leading projections. We have custom-built tools to help you identify the top stacks, batters and pitchers — along with a one-of-a-kind lineup generator! You can even test how a slate could go with the new simulator tool. Sign up for our MLB DFS package for those tools and more today by clicking here.
MLB Pick’em Predictions for Sleeper MLB | Aug. 17
Lynn has certainly been better since leaving the White Sox for the Dodgers, as he has a WHIP below 1.000 in Los Angeles and has cut his hits allowed per nine by about a third. And he has done this while keeping his strikeouts up. However, MLB Pick’em Pro‘s model is expecting the other shoe to drop sooner or later.
This year with Chicago, Lynn’s outings essentially entailed of one of the following outcomes: Massive blowup or huge strikeout numbers — and rarely did the two intersect. He has yet to have a bad start with the Dodgers, and he went over 6.5 strikeouts in two of his three starts. But dating back to his last few White Sox outings, Lynn has gone over 6.5 in only two of his last six, and he is still under 50% on the season (11-for-24).
There is also the matter of Lynn’s home run issues not quite abating despite solid results. He allowed three to the Athletics, of all teams, but escaped with three runs allowed in seven innings since they were all solo shots. Eventually Lynn is going to run into trouble with the power he gives up, and even a mediocre offense in the Brewers can be a candidate if Oakland was able to take him deep multiple times.
MLB Pick’em Pro projects Lynn for 6.1 strikeouts and the under on 6.5 for a 54% win expectancy.
Best MLB Sleeper Play: Lance Lynn Under 6.5 Strikeouts (1.70x)
Matt Vierling O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Stokastic’s prop tools often like these unders on 1.5 total bases for players that do not present much power, and Vierling certainly applies. Though his .270 average and 25 multi-hit games are decent, Vierling is slugging a mere .386 and has a minuscule .116 ISO, both well below league average. That means that a multi-hit game is often Vierling’s best avenue to getting two-plus total bases (he has only six one-hit games where the one hit went for extra bases), and 25-for-86 (29.1%) on two-plus hits does not exactly portend success.
His matchup today is OK; Xzavion Curry only recently entered the Guardians starting rotation, and he allowed a hit per inning and 3.5 earned runs per game in his last two starts. That said, Curry’s numbers out of the bullpen were better. And even in the likely event he only goes a few innings, Cleveland’s bullpen has the ninth-lowest WHIP in MLB. Vierling is projecting for 1.4 total bases, which makes this a close proposition, but MLB Pick’em Pro gives the under a 56% chance of hitting.
Best MLB Sleeper Play: Matt Vierling Under 1.5 Total Bases (1.70x)
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Look to the Rangers Boppers! (May 4)
- MLB DFS Pick Advice & Strategy: Talk Directly With the World’s Best DFS Players on Discord
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (May 3)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Sonny Gray + Cardinals Bats (May 3)
- MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Under Owned Braves (May 3)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Muncy is the polar opposite of Vierling; his batting average is miserable (.195), but his power numbers are strong enough to make him a threat for multiple total bases every — let alone one. Muncy has also found a bit more success the last week or so, recording a hit in five of his last eight games.
People are going to point to the matchup as a reason to fade Muncy, and that is legitimate. Corbin Burnes is excellent and has held Muncy to zero hits in nine career plate appearances against him. That said, Muncy’s splits against righties this year are considerably better (in that he raises his average to .227 and his BABIP to .252), and batter-versus-pitcher samples are always too small to draw real conclusions.
The truth is that Muncy is a strong candidate for an extra-base hit, even if the average does not reflect that. MLB Pick’em Pro gives him 1.8 total bases as a median projection.
Best MLB Sleeper Play: Max Muncy Over 0.5 Total Bases (1.68x)
All together, this three-pick entry comes with a 4.85x payout.
