Today for MLB pick’em plays we are turning to PrizePicks MLB, where the Rangers-Twins game is offering up several great spots. Luckily, Stokastic and PrizePicks are teaming up to offer new users a great promo: You can use the PrizePicks promo code ‘STOKASTIC’ when you sign up to get a deposit match up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for PrizePicks’ MLB pick’em contest.
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MLB Pick’em Predictions for PrizePicks MLB | Aug. 24
Pablo Lopez O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
Lopez has been a dominant strikeout pitcher all season, but he has brought his whole game to another level over the last month and change. He has given up just a single earned run total in his last four starts, going at least six innings in all four and striking out seven-plus in three of those. Stretching back even further, since June 13, Lopez has made 12 starts and is averaging 7.9 strikeouts and 6.1 innings per outing while punching out at least seven in all but two of them. To put it simply, few pitchers in baseball have been as hot as Lopez of late.
The Rangers lineup at one time in the not-so-distant past would have been a real hit to a pitcher’s strikeout projections. That is not the case right now. Texas has lost six straight games, scoring more than three runs just once in this stretch, and it has struck out the eighth most in baseball over the last week. The Rangers are also getting Lopez in Minnesota, where he has struck out over 30% of hitters this season. As such, Stokastic projects him for 6.8 strikeouts to make this the No. 1 over play on PrizePicks today.
Best MLB PrizePicks Play: Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Marcus Semien O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Semien has been one of baseball’s most productive right-handed hitters this year, and he does not suffer from any sort of major split disadvantage facing a righty on the road. Instead, fading him and his total bases play is more a matter of compounding the first play of this PrizePicks entry.
Lopez’s dominance has already been covered in depth, and that is the driving force here. Semien has gone for multiple total bases in well over half of his games and is averaging just a hair under two bases per game this season. However, he also failed to hit this over in three of his last five games, and given how good Lopez has been recently, there is easily a path for another down game. After all, down games have been the Rangers’ M.O. for a week now.
Do note that Semien’s median projection on Stokastic is 1.8 total bases. However, the model sees him falling short of 1.5 55% of the time, so this is still proving to be one of the higher-value plays on the PrizePicks MLB slate.
Best MLB PrizePicks Play: Marcus Semien Under 1.5 Total Bases
Whit Merrifield O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Merrifield is likely leading off for the Blue Jays against a middling Orioles starter. That seems like a recipe for an over here, no? Well, despite Merrifield’s decent numbers, he has not been up to snuff in August. His .292 season average has been hurt by a .244 average this month, and his slugging and ISO are a modest-at-best .349 and .105, respectively. That has led Merrifield recording multiple total bases in just eight of 19 starts in August (42.1%) — only one of which has come in his last six.
All told, Merrifield has 47 overs on 1.5 total bases in 113 games this year. Kyle Gibson has been pretty susceptible to allowing power, but given Merrifield’s struggles in that area, the more obvious threat is Gibson allowing multiple hits to him. Fortunately, Gibson has held righties to a .234 average this year, versus over .300 to lefties, so the platoon is working in favor of the under. As such, Stokastic gives Merrifield a 55% chance of staying under 1.5 total bases.
Best MLB PrizePicks Play: Whit Merrifield Under 1.5 Total Bases
